Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32796. (Read 26468874 times)

All I have to say is "FINALLY!" been waiting a month and half, maybe longer for this. Felt like such a waste of time, people holding onto the hope of higher prices. I'm a long term bull but I think we have to go down before we can go back up again. The good old bitcoin way, hahaha.

150K is the total employee cost - I should have made that clear.  Where I work, employees cost about 2x their salary in taxes, benefits, equipement, etc...

Think about it.  With their new infrastructure and crap volume, they could start losing 50K per day if the price keeps dropping.  Hell, they may already be bankrupt for all we know.  The fact that they only accept bank transfers in and not out, is definitely a red flag.

I have $100 that says they'll "unfortunately need to extend" their USD hiatus.

This time I can certainly smell FEAR in the air...

I've been paying attention to this lately and noticing the exact same thing. Imho a big part of the buy side is fake. They are holding the price, all the while enabling sustained slow but regular dumps.

That 150k per employee figure is way off, but still its true that a low btc/usd exchange rate has an enormous impact on Gox's financials. Taking into account their history of honesty but profound amateurism, I also wonder how good they scaled during the "success", and how well are they going to handle this rough moments (because for them these are rough moments, that's for sure).

Probably the same thing as to the 300 Spartans. They died.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3quv8AjmAI

I have placed my bid at $88, but not feeling too confident right now.

$88 is a monthly low plus a crucial support level, as its part of the $50->$79->$88 "higher lows" trend.

This is total cost to the company - not just salary.  I would guess average salary is ~78-120, but the total cost is closer to 150.  Plug in your own numbers, though - it's still the same conclusion.  The real number to be worried about is their low transaction volume.

150k for their "stellar" employees? Wow... do you own a business? I want to work for you!

Oh ok. I guess your right. I can't see buying through to 82 happening today but I can see it happening this week.

The funny thing would be if he decided to stop being a bear and got hit hard by the recent downtrend.

I've been doing some calculations... and there is a BTC price point which, if sustained, will drive MtGox bankrupt, imo.

Granted, these are based on some pretty rough assumptions, so let me know if you see any flaws.  Obviously, MtGox is a private company so they won't release their financials...

Yearly Costs:
Employee Costs = 150,000 * 20
Legal = 200,000
ISP / DDOS servivers = 120,000
Rent / Security = 120,000
Servers & Utilities = 100,000
= ~ 3.5 MM per year

Revenues:
25,000K BTC average volume post Dwolla / USD Hiatus
Average of 0.5% commissions (most trades are algo or whale at 0.25% comm on each side)
= ~300K per month

At these values, any BTC price below 65$ USD will not sustain them financially.  Now, if you factor in any money seized in the Dwolla raid, and any money they may have prepaid, that pain point might be sooner.   Of course, the reverse is possible as well, and they might have stockpiled money from the boom/bust.  It's hard to say, but the point is that it is not negligible risk (hence the spread between them and other exchanges).  MtGox scaled up considerably when the boom started earlier this year and likely invested a lot in servers, people, services - after the Dwolla and USD hiatus, they may no longer be making enough in commissions to keep paying their bills / employees.

Just food for thought.  The BTC economy is putting a lot of faith in MtGox's ability to do proper/honest financial accounting / planning.

Hi, 80s! We missed you (on Gox)!  

Less than 4k coins to break 88.

I think it's time for us to honour someone ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

Go Proudhon, go ... ride that bear

I only meant it could happen if we break 90 (solidly). I would say in the next few days it is VERY possible. I'm leaning towards probably.
I won't take part in any bounces unless the signs say it isn't fake - and that is hard to know. The order book is very manipulated.

88 is a 30 day low and we're almost there. No buying pressure at 94-95 is ultra bearish. No buying pressure at 89-91 after a huge dump is also very bearish.

I really would not be surprised to see BTC hit stable 60-70 either this month or August. Unless a lot of new blood comes into the market there's no chance we'll be seeing 150+ again, and the last time a lot of new blood got brought into the market it got raped by whales in their pump and dump scheme.

Long term super bullish is still correct imo, but it's going to take a lot more than the absolutely nothing that is happening with Bitcoin right now to start to reach even the beginning stages of widespread adoption.

Are you saying 82 today or soon?

ok enough emotional outbursts, for the technical side of things i think we need to be looking at volume, not necessarily looking for big volume, but good consistent volume with good walls that are quickly replaced if bought or sold into. the spread is much tighter than it use to be, watch if it tightens more. look for buy signals  

Still on denial? i thought we were already on capitulation