Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32798. (Read 26623605 times)

I don't think we talk about the same thing. I'm not talking about the fundamental situation, the general buying/selling situation on either of the exchanges.

I'm talking about short-term *tradeable* (by my metric) dips or upswings. Like those that happen all the time. Like the on that just happened two days ago, where (theoretically) you could have sold at 110 and bought back at 101 (on mtg).

Anyway, like I said, not fully crystallized yet in my opinion, but I'm holding my finger on the trigger, so to speak.

the increasingly better technicals on bitstamp could be driven by the fact that by now, enough traders moved left mtg and moved to bitstamp and now start actively trading there - and not only use bitstamp as withdrawing funnel

There are only traders selling and eventually trying to buy back lower, the base investors and miners aware of Gox issues won't sell for USD in limbo.
I am confident the available coins on Gox will continue to decrease the more the hiatus continues, creating price inflation at Gox.
Unless whales decide to induce a panic, but they are also aware of those issues.

We're about to enter a (short-term, at least, but tradeable IMO) trend reversal, downwards, judging by what I look at. Still avoidable though if price picks up, to 104, 105 maybe.

Interestingly, mtg and bit are decoupled to a degree right now, with bit looking slightly more positive. The two exchanges are still strongly linked of course, but I noticed that there's at least some instances in the past 2 months were bit actually lead mtg. Not the norm though, usually still the other way round.

Can we finish Saturday first?  11.25 hours left in UTC.

I thought it might have been there to make the weekend less bleak. Guess I will have to see now what Sunday brings.

103.15 proven to be a fake wall, after getting 500 coins dump, the rest of the bid pull away.

Is it a stupid buy if they think on the time frame of a few weeks/months that we're going to eventually correct from the bubble deflation? Perhaps with the crazy long margin interests yes...but perhaps it's worth it to them? Consider that we are at 96 on Bitstamp, when one year ago, BTC prices were around 15 or less, and another year ago, BTC was recovering from a bubble that brought prices down to $1.998/BTC. With Bitfinex USD interest rates currently at 0.25%/day*365 days=91.25%APR, I'd  seriously consider taking it. Either way, any of your perceived irrationality on Bitfinex's part will be countered by people taking advantage of the disequilibrium via shorts.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wall-observer-btcusd-bitcoin-price-movement-tracking-discussion-178336
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/wall-observer-btcusd-bitcoin-price-movement-tracking-discussion-178336

Vokain I agree, what I am trying to say is that Bitstamp changed soooo much since Bitfinex started using them and one should expect unrationality (there were so many examples when I was screaming "what a stupid buy").

correct. Some time last week, the available USDs-worth to borrow and buy BTC was a bit over 3000BTC. Now it's about 1000 with even greater interest rates.

Inversely,
some time last week, available BTCs to borrow to sell was around 2000 BTC. Now it's around 5000 BTC with slightly lower rates.

This suggests that people are less likely to short, so in order to equalize that for one reason or another, interest rates have to get lower. We might see some more shorting as a result of the resulting decreased cost to short. The increased supply to short might also mean that more shorts were covered in the mean time, but not necessarily.

Bitfinex allows both short and long.  But I think the margin trade is running out of money for people to borrow.

1. Yes. On the flipside, bitstamp would also be going up to Gox's level
2. I disagree that this is irrational. It makes sense, it's not like Bitstamp is selflessly or recklessly holding up the price on Bitfinex. It's more like they are buying bitcoin and using bitstamp as a source to get coins from due to BFX's poor local liquidity. This is a reflection how the Bitfinex players, or rather, the players using Bitfinex, are judging the market at this point in time. They will sell when it's time to sell.

Yes, but if this would be possible the difference would get lower and lower (probably gox going down to bitstamp level). Because of Bitfinex Bitstamp is sometimes so unrational (like 400 buys now).

I'm saying it could be greater than it currently if arbitrageurs could withdraw their USD from Gox to buy at Bitstamp to better equalize the price diffference. I also think Bitfinex's influence is in the long run negligible on Bitstamp's prices. If bitfinex thinks the price will go up, then they'll buy more on bitstamp. Inversely, if Bitfinex thinks the price will go down, they'll sell more on bitstamp. Bitfinex will not always be bullish..but it's worth noting that it currently is so.....

Bitstamp's bid-side influences:
new money (a lot of which formerly would've went to gox)
Bitfinex speculation
general Bitcoin market


Bitstamp's ask-side influences:
Gox former supply of BTC as they move from Gox to the functioning  exchange and the desire to sell them
Bitfinex speculation
general Bitcoin market

===
Unfortunately, Gox fiat can't follow the bitcoins that are moving to Bitstamp. This puts the bid-side at a disadvantage, unless the velocity of new buying money is greater than the coins being sold, either to be speculated upon or  withdrawn out of the system (remember that Bitstamp is currently the biggest exchange where you can withdraw "real" money).

If I were selling coins on mtgox, my prices would be much, much higher than they currently are. The risk of not being able to withdraw is tremendous and it would take a huge premium for me to sell my liquid coins and take that risk on, because I might not ever be able to see what I exchange said coins for.