Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32799. (Read 26623600 times)

Though a higher bid/ask ratio typically and historically is bearish, in Bitstamp's current situation that might not be necessarily true IF the overall bitcoin market is bullish. As Bitstamp absorbs mtgox's asks from mtgox's predicament, Bitstamp is only slowly growing on the bid side from only steadily increasing market share for the purchase of bitcoins. As in, the only reason why the greater supply of coins on the Stamp isn't dragging prices down as much (S/D on bitstamp definitely a factor though, I guess that the price on Stamp is relatively lower for this reason), overall demand of Bitcoin outweighs the greater supply/demand ratio on Bitstamp ie why Bitstamp prices have absolutely gone up as well

Hopefully Bitstamp gets some more USD inflows to equalize as time passes and
at least until they resolve the concern that any Gox fiat depositors and BTC sellers will not be able to withdraw their Gox fiat. Until the fiat on Gox can be withdrawn, the arbitrageurs cannot take advantage of the lower Bitstamp prices, and Bitstamp's bid side has to depend upon new money (and it does look like all this new Bitcoin money is being funneled into Bitstamp, not MtGox). This seems to be true, and perhaps it's just that bullish that things are working out as well as it is so far.

I stand by my other hypothesis a few pages back that our reversal is in part a result of MtGox's troubles and though it's counterintuitive, considering how we have handled it thus far, overall it's bullish as ever. The fact that new USD Bitstamp inflows are countering the downwards pricing effect of Bitstamp taking on a lot of MtGox's selling pressure suggests so.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2837009
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.2837036

we still see this phenomenon:

1) During a rally, people who still have USD/other fiat funds at MtGox buy BTC
2) Many of them transfer them to other exchanges, mainly Bitstamp
3) As a consequence, the order book bid/ask ratios are inverse at MtGox versus Bitstamp
4) Ultimately, MtGox market share drops further. Today, we again see Bitstamp with the same USD market share as MtGox:

mtgoxUSD         103.7500   11,865.21
bitstampUSD   96.8500   10,781.35

With a faint wind and tumbleweed blowing across the floor of Gox this Saturday, looks like we're waiting for the first draw between Bull and Bear before we can predict the trend this weekend!

not necessarily


I imagine Gox USD inflow is currently like turning off the water spigot that you fill up a bucket with. As you turn it off, the water inflow to the bucket becomes more and more limited, but still, you have lots of water in that bucket. That water isn't going to go anywhere unless it is (with)drawn out, or evaporates (through transaction fees). The act of people selling bitcoin on Gox would be akin to picking up water and pouring it in another part of the USD bucket, and in doing so, the other party gets something (BTC) for it. Prices should be higher to reflect this.

I whole heartedly agree with that. People with money there now might be feeling the only way out is to buy and transfer coins out. If you don't need the money, you just keep it their in Fiat and hope Gox is legit.
But, as you said, the overall effect is that Gox is probably getting less new money (at least from people like me and you). Those huge huge buys up from $65 was new money imo and the large recent buys continue to be new money. Perhaps big money knows Gox is ok?...


I will refrain from reading that now as my head has too much "Gann" in it.   But I appreciate the link.
I follow what you say and have seen others on Tradingview mention the Elliot Waves in the same context recently. The consensus is the same as yours - Up in all probability. The volume, I think, is the deciding factor but we'll see this next week is my bet...

I see your update and think I follow you better now. Funny pattern duplicate, eh?

here's a side to side comparison if it helps

My rationale was that yes, the bullish volume might be relatively increased as a result of that factor, but overall volume would still be suppressed because people do not want to put money into Gox, the former de-facto place to send your money if you wanted to purchase bitcoins. With the removal of their market role, I would guess overall volume decreased as people find they don't want to put their money into Gox anymore, and start looking for other places to find it.  Bitstamp's volume is steadily increasing I've noticed.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle#Elliott_Wave_personality_and_characteristics


Basically, at least how i understand the principle, trends move in a 5-wave count fashion, due to fractalized psychologies. A five wave count can either end with a ABC corrective trend before continuing the trend the count was on, or, it can start a new 5 wave reversal count.

My hypothesis is that on the way down to 65, we had the end of a downwards 5 waves. Right now, we are facing the question whether or not we are finishing an ABC corrective trend, or beginning a new count of 5 waves up (of which we would be in wave 3, confirmed by passing 115). This to me looks like a head and shoulders pattern if it plays out, and a failure if we finish out an ABC pattern and continue heading back down.

By market conditions, do you mean the GOX fiasco?
The GOX thing, one can argue, is increasing buying pressure for those "trapped" there. I don't know, I feel like I'm walking on eggshells though and don't like it. Too much work in front of the computer.
I look forward to buying and holding and doing something better with my time in the near future. 

I'm not familiar with EW, but I can comment if you give more info on it?

EM - Fair point, I think, in other words a bounce is going to respond to often resemble a H&S pattern. I guess we can argue that about all the patterns. They all represent shifts in energy to a point. Cup and Handle is also a build up. All the candlestick patterns...

How can any bounce look different than a inverted head & shoulders? How can any top be different than a head and shoulders?

Geometry tip: They can't.

Though it is a long shot, perhaps the low volume is simply a result of the current exchange market conditions suppressing volume?

Just a hypothesis, although what would like a HnS pattern would fit with my current elliott wave count/guess (reversal of a down 5-wave count into a new up 5-wave count)


here's a little  rough sketch i did yesterday
https://www.tradingview.com/x/Gxn7wES1/

Not being Bullish or Bearish, just looking at the pattern and volume - The volume pattern is not following what is normally expected. We'll see:


http://www.chartpatterns.com/headandshoulders.htm

It's more about the social implications that result from that and enabling crime imho.

TL;DR: The main idea of this article is that Bitcoin will destroy the current financial and government system.

My opinion is that the current system will destroy itself. It's inevitable, with Bitcoin or without it.
But Bitcoin will help us to build the new type of economy. It will help us to avoid the beginning of an old system again.

Bitcoin’s Dystopian Future

Ahhh, soothing music to my bullish ears, don't stop..