Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking &amp; discussion - page 32994. (Read 26498116 times)

Quote from: prof7bit on June 28, 2013, 05:13:22 AM

If you are not out, get out.

If its going down then the winning strategy is to buy more. Thats the difference between the winners and the losers. The losers buy high and sell low, the winners do it exactly the other way around.

There are many timeframes and many winning strategies. Unless people are ready to lose 100% and hold for YEARS like I said before, I would advise against counter trend strategy.

When the trend reverses up, you will a) have minimized your risk and b) probably have more Bitcoins.

For anyone who doesn't like to trade at all though and wants a Bitcoin position I agree, dollar cost averaging is the way to go.

Rampion

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Quote from: spooderman on June 28, 2013, 05:03:00 AM

If you are not out, get out.

If its going down then the winning strategy is to buy more. Thats the difference between the winners and the losers. The losers buy high and sell low, the winners do it exactly the other way around.

Agreed that the best time to sell it's not now - it was obviously April, 9th, or if you didn't have the sheer luck to catch the very top, best time was when we bounced to $160ish after the crash to $50.

In any case, you win more by selling now at $100 and buying back lower. Because it will be lower...

Jaroslaw

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supernode

ugh what a horrible thing to wake up to Sad

below 100 again

After weekend it will be below 80

prof7bit

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https://youengine.io/

Quote from: gandhibt on June 28, 2013, 05:06:51 AM

If you are not out, get out.

If its going down then the winning strategy is to buy more. Thats the difference between the winners and the losers. The losers buy high and sell low, the winners do it exactly the other way around.

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

Quote from: Rampion on June 28, 2013, 04:57:25 AM

If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard.

Taxes would hurt a lot?

Mmmm... Yeah.

Quote from: Rampion on June 28, 2013, 04:57:25 AM

You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long?

My bet is that it will stay sub $100 for many months. It staid below $32 (or below $16, to actually correlate $100 to a 2011 bubble level) for more than a year and a half. That could be "very long" or "very short" depending on your timescale. For me that is "very short" from an investment point of view, but "very long" for an active trading point of view.

Now we had two bubbles. This time bitcoin is bigger, stronger and faster. More people know about it. This will shorten the time from 2. bubble to 3. bubble and it will make the 3. bigger. Trend reversal needs just one big whale and then we go. In these conditions predicting that price will stay low for long is just denialism. It took a lot of time to generate the first bubble.

Glad that you are so sure about it. I think the bolded part is true, but I also believe this is something that works in two ways. In 2011, a lot of people said "OMG, this is a scam", so they exited the market pretty fast. Now a lot of investors said "cool, it crashed, I can buy lower and wait for the next bubble", so there is more buying happening, the price bounces more, and at the end of the day it takes longer for the price to fall consistently. But it falls, like it happens during all bubbles deflations, and some of those investors that bought at $160 will crap their pants when we will reach $80, and will sell. Then it will be the turn of those that bought at $100, etc... People realizes that is stupid to hold on 1 coin if you can sell it and buy back 2 coins.

So, yes - people has more confidence in BTC now, and they are exiting the market in a slower fashion. But nevertheless they are exiting the market. Just check both the volume and the fiat on Gox and Bitstamp order books. Is declining. Fiat is leaving. And there's absolutely no sign for it to be coming back soon.

Loozik

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Born to chew bubble gum and kick ass

I just woke up. what a nice price drop Grin

But still the price did not fall enough to buy Angry

gandhibt

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If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard.

Taxes would hurt a lot?

Mmmm... Yeah.

Quote from: N12 on June 28, 2013, 04:59:09 AM

You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long?

My bet is that it will stay sub $100 for many months. It staid below $32 (or below $16, to actually correlate $100 to a 2011 bubble level) for more than a year and a half. That could be "very long" or "very short" depending on your timescale. For me that is "very short" from an investment point of view, but "very long" for an active trading point of view.

Now we had two bubbles. This time bitcoin is bigger, stronger and faster. More people know about it. This will shorten the time from 2. bubble to 3. bubble and it will make the 3. bigger. Trend reversal needs just one big whale and then we go. In these conditions predicting that price will stay low for long is just denialism. It took a lot of time to generate the first bubble.

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I don't know why people keep looking at 2011 and tell me "this time it's different".

If this time is different, then it's because it's worse.

Now you are contradicting yourself... The only way for it to be worse would be to go below $15. So you are not a single digit believer, but just slightly higher??? Roll Eyes

I like you a lot more when you post thoughtful comments instead of trollish fear-mongering. But hey however you get your jollies Cheesy

I guess he says it will be worst because there will be more traps, and the bear market will last longer.

FNG

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If you are not out, get out.

I'll hold and add and wait for that one small spark to light a fire under bitcoin.

Panic fucking everywhere..oh no. Take a step back and see what is going on in the btc world. Weak infrastructure is being improved, protocol is being utilized in new ways, VC's are looking endlessly for investments, online casinos (10+ Billion $ industry that could greatly benefit by adopting bitcoin is looking into it). Uber bearish sentiment makes me laugh.

N12

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You'll get used to it.

spooderman

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ugh what a horrible thing to wake up to Sad

below 100 again

ChartBuddy

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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

N12

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I don't know why people keep looking at 2011 and tell me "this time it's different".

If this time is different, then it's because it's worse.

Rampion

legendary

Activity: 1148

Merit: 1018

If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard.

Taxes would hurt a lot?

Mmmm... Yeah.

You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long?

My bet is that it will stay sub $100 for many months. It staid below $32 (or below $16, to actually correlate $100 to a 2011 bubble level) for more than a year and a half. That could be "very long" or "very short" depending on your timescale. For me that is "very short" from an investment point of view, but "very long" for an active trading point of view.

N12

donator

Activity: 1610

Merit: 1010

Unlike Nagle, I am a long term bull. Unlike Nagle, I've done well for myself. Cheesy

But I'm certain that most people who pretend to be long-term bulls will be selling at $40.

Quote

USD withdrawal lock on MtGox is causing the 'dysfunctional' behaviour of the market right now, there's not much more to it than that really

I'm aware. Just saying that Bitstamp has been leading MtGox prices on the way down for a while ever since they decoupled.

Miz4r

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Quote from: Rampion on June 28, 2013, 03:40:38 AM

When the exodus of coins from MtGox started after the Dwolla situation, many in here said that fiat was following too, but that it would have taken time as it slower to move. Well, absolute maximum fiat on Bitstamp after Dwolla was $1.1m, and now is less than half of it. Fiat is really leaving Bitcoin for good, as expected.

Very true. The bubble has popped, and we are now in the process of deflating it until we hit CAPITULATION.

▼ mtgoxUSD    96.5000
▼ bitstampUSD    90.9000
▼ btceUSD    92.1320

Incredible how dysfunctional this market still is. Bitstamp keeps leading the way for MtGox now.

If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

You sound like Nagle. And we all know how that ended up for him. Tongue

USD withdrawal lock on MtGox is causing the 'dysfunctional' behaviour of the market right now, there's not much more to it than that really. You drama bears crack me up every time. Cheesy

N12

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You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long? Look around you, does it seem that world is changing fast or superfast? Bitcoin will die or it will go to the moon and it will not take years (it's possible, but not even close to likely).

I've seen all this happen in 2011 before and it's happening again. So yes, it's easy to predict the most likely general course of things. People's psychology, emotions and sentiment do not change fast, and habits don't change fast either. It's not a singularity, and that notion is the greatest lie ever.

gandhibt

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If you are not out, get out.

Unless you are prepared to hold for YEARS and willing to lose 100%.

Yeah, the YEARS part has me wondering if I should withdraw the fiat I have on Gox while I wait for the entry point I'm looking for. I'm just not very comfortable having it there for too long. I expected the bottom to be reached during the summer, thus having the fiat on Gox for two/three months didn't bother me, but seeing this bear my be much longer than I expected I have to confess my "withdraw" finger is starting to itch hard. Very hard.

Taxes would hurt a lot?

You guys truly think that you can predict, at level that is somehow even remotely likely, that price will stay at <100 $ long? Look around you, does it seem that world is changing fast or superfast? Bitcoin will die or it will go to the moon and it will not take years (it's possible, but not even close to likely).

bangersdad

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