http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1FKoX7u_Jo8&list=FL1P_1oxI07oWp1u_UuRuQBA
Bitcoin going for a tumble... and I held a long position
Bitcoin going for a tumble... and I held a long position
I don't Think you know what "Long" means.
That I bought most of my coins over $100 dollars and haven't sold any yet? A couple of 'sure things' for a BTC or two but overall, long. I'm very contrarian to this bear forum.
I think you are getting the wrong idea about this thread, at least a lot of the people on it. There are quite a few of us here that have had a good amount of experience trading stocks. I know a few that are "bearish" are HUGE bitcoin believers. Further, some of us have paid subscriptions and are collecting data not just from what we see, but what we pay for. I know what it feels like to believe contrarian things in the face of evidence. This forum has put out a fair amount of data showing we are going down. Let's just say that I have yet to find one good indicator saying we are going up. (We might have a huge bounce, and we are still in a larger uptrend, but the short to mid term looks to be down.)
I am a HUGE BTC BULL. I can't tell you how much I believe in what it represents and how it can help to change the world. But timing, is EVERYTHING. If you had any idea of the amount of information I convey to quite a few people about BTC, I think your perspective would shift. I'm sure that is true of many of the other "bears". Further, quite a few of the people I've told about BTC have either bought or are looking for an entry and further are spreading the word. Don't let this one "focal point" give you the wrong idea.
Do not confuse Bearism with realism. There is no place for optimism or pessimism when analyzing data, realism is where it is at. If you want to go by what you believe, by all means do so and I'm not being sarcastic. Any of us that are currently bearish know we can be burned if the BTC turns on a dime like it can. But barring that, the direction is extremely clear. My question to you is, why aren't you listening and how are you doing your research, where is your opinion coming from, etc??? I am out to help, not to frighten or the like.
edit - Just to add, I was burned a little by being overly optimistic and not looking at the data, so I know the experience. But I was quick to adapt, well, not real quick, but I adapted.
Data, well, as much data as you can have on such a stock, we are well below the moving averages. We should be trading nearer to $100 and I would have to be left behind on a rally. Looking at the USD as a infinitely reproducible currency, mathematically speaking i'm better off with a useful, finite asset. However, I have only so many USD to pump into this thing before I gotta give.
But yes, the majority of my trading basis is on 'belief', an emotional state which will no doubt lead me to failure.
I love using moving averages, but I don't depend on them. They are more complimentary than they are primary. The 20 day EMA just went below the 100 day EMA for the first time in many many many months. That is pretty bearish (but it doesn't mean we don't break through it anyway!). What was once support is now resistance.
If you are using a moving average as your main indicator, you are missing like 90% of the picture. For example, I called the last 3 moves down and I clearly listed why (and we were hugging the moving averages). Not saying I know what I am talking about, but when you have an upward move in price and a downward move in volume - it is a really really really accurate way (divergence) to predict a down move. Each time the price moved down (and violently.) I wasn't using a scare tactic - I was clearly listing why, sort of in an educational way. I mentioned many many times that the sell sizes are quite large relative to the buy sizes. That means (I think) guys like me and you without a lot of $$$ are doing the buying and guys (like early adopters or rich folk) are doing the selling. They are not attempting to hide their block sizes either (which is easy to see anyway because of the time of the sales being at the same second). When I posted above (and weeks ago) the coinorama chart - it is a nice simple indicator - more sells than buys. A bit complimentary. The bid/ask ratio chart below that is also a good indicator (complimentary) - when it goes below one it is bearish.
So, collecting all of these complimentary and primary indicators are tell me the same thing. It isn't hard to see. The hard part is loving what BTC is but knowing it's not the right time to be holding it.
IF you want to lower your risk, just don't cash out completely. Keep 30%, or 50% or whatever you feel comfortable with and then use the fiat to buy more if it goes lower. You cut your losses and increase your upside. You can limit your upside too, but when all the indicators are saying down, you have something substantial (and not just emotional) on your side.
You may really come out on top by just holding. Actually, you probably will but the ride to point B, will be a bit rougher. (Not that this ride is smooth for me.)
Good luck,
IAS
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