Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33213. (Read 26464214 times)

First, to be fair, you should probably quote exactly what it is your are questioning me about.

Now, my basis:

Listening to The Daily Bitcoin show, quite a few times now they have mentioned how donations using BTC is a very big use of it in general. And, they said it is growing (on their show). I know from my own habits, that for some reason, it feels good to tip using BTC. I'm not basing my statement on me, but adding weight to what they said on TDB show.

Daily purchases going up is all but certain. Taken from: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-16/peter-thiel-gets-bitcoin-bug
"Back in March I noted that the company was putting up mind-boggling growth rate numbers.  Incredibly, the tremendous growth rate continues as they added another 1,900 merchants in April and are currently signing up around 100 additional merchants a day."

Now, how else am I to interpret 100 new customers a day being added? I think it is pretty clear that business using BTC is increasing.

BTC as a currency is certainly being neglected by a lot of people, most notably it's speculators. But, it is also seen as a store of value, albeit a risky one (I know, ironic). I think many of us feel it's use as a currency is a given as the benefits, the TREMENDOUS benefits, are overwhelming. So, to me, it is matter of fact.

Lastly, you say I'm enthusiastic about BTC. Yes I am, but that is such an underwhelming statement to make considering what I really see happening.  
Honestly, what BTC is and once you factor in the underlying technology and it's uses, to say this is a huge thing is not enough imo. It is a Black Swan, right before our eyes and it certainly appears to be anti-fragile as well. (see my sig). The only worry I do have though is regulation/government. But my bet is they are hoping to co-opt BTC and not so much slow it down. (Oh, I can't recall right now what SR is...)

IAS

Let me quote you again

So, on what basis did you said that?

I like that you are so enthusiast about bitcoin , but shouldn't we keep our head cool when posting things as facts ? , we're not kings of the world yet..
Bitcoins have gone up in price , but it's role as currency is almost neglected , even by its owners. (except sr).

And sincerly I wonder where bitcoin would be without SR sometimes.

What happened with "the US will go after Bitcoin and will kill it, Ripple will take over" and other FUD you spread non stop after the Dwolla situation? What made you to change your  mind?

Maybe you sold your useless XRPs and bought some BTC? Or you educated yourself a bit and understood that Bitcoin was designed to be immune to bans/regulation?

I'm a bit confused by your question. Where did I predict anything? Me not being shocked by a huge price range possibility?

Yes, I am supposing a lot, but aren't we all? And, I'm doing it in a sense of querying, searching and such. We don't know what it is we are dealing with and hence a lot of what I said. But I am not trying to say I know.

edit - to answer your question. If I see more transactions with decreasing volume, I would think that day to day transactions of BTC is taking place and that people see the current phase of price formation as an opportunity to collect, since we are seeing most sells met with buys (limiting downside). (So yes, people are collecting coins). Also, as others mentioned, perhaps early adopters, by their very nature and caring, don't want to sell into downward price movement so we have a huge volume of users holding coins on our side. Probably a relatively rare situation in "markets", where things are mostly just about money.

I fail to see the "rising transactions" on that graph.
But , if indeed they were up , what do you think?

How about an analysis on actual fact and numbers and not suppositions?
And i'm saying that because most of your predictions are based on suppositions. ))))))

So, would rising transactions but on less volume be a sign of "hoarding"?

Kinda hard to be wrong with a prediction range of 130-1000.    

Seriously though, without any really bad news, (major USG type news) I can't really find much fault in this analysis.  Speculation of course, but fair.  For me it's the same, really too soon to narrow down the "silver bullet" to the rise as so many new things are taking place.  It may very well be just a perfect storm building of incoming capital, aftermath of the convention, confidence after Dwolla and Liberty, may well have a positive affect soon.  Not sure how well Gyft sales are doing but there is just a ton of little positives that seem to be adding together nicely.

For you bulls, I have to admit, there is much to cheer about or at least be optimistic about in the short term.  Mid-long term is anyones guess but for now, enjoy the fact that I can find no legitamate FUD to spread around.  

depends on movement on mt.gox. If price stays more or less the same, then yes, it will take a while. But as soon as it is established above 136 (bid wall above 136), volume on bitstamp will rocket up and those walls will go down very fast indeed. 

Just saying what? 

Just bought 25 btc at mt gox. Currently bouncing between 134 and 135.

http://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?daysAverageString=7

The number of transactions is rising, but with less volume.


Some nice work from a redditor:

How do you equate transaction volume to hoarding? I'm not saying people are not putting coins in paper wallets, but "hoarding" sounds awfully negative.

Now, even if 90% of coins were hoarded, what would it do?
The hoarders wouldn't see any value as they would be holding, right?
The 8 decimal places (100 million bits per BTC) would make it such that all transactions could still easily take place.
Eventually, some stability would be reached in the price as the volume of full BTC trades (as opposed to fractional trades) would go down, no?

The only thing that hoarding does is add value by decreasing circulating float. It doesn't seem to decrease the efficacy of what BTC is. Actually, it just attracts more people.

I just think too much worry is placed on the hoarding scenario.

IAS

next week starts tomorrow

just sayin...

 

http://blockchain.info/charts/estimated-transaction-volume?daysAverageString=7

Get real , everybody is hoarding as much as they can

We are in an interesting phase of price discovery. Clearly a lot of coins are disappearing due to being put in a "savings account" and at the same time we are seeing more coins being used for donations, daily purchases, etc. I wonder how much the price will go up just based on more adoption via actual daily usage??? Really, that is an interesting question as Bitpay and the like are going to be doing the instant conversions so will be creating liquidity at the exchanges.

 As the price moves up (and at times violently) we are going to see people call tops and sell. Eventually, I imagine there will be a reasonable distribution, but the early adopters will always hold a portion as they believe in the greater purpose. They will further most likely re-"invest" in Bitcoin in a variety of ways - e.g., legal fund, VC, etc.

Just considering the current float of 11 million or so and the fact that the actual float is probably less than half that, I really would not be shocked at any price this year between what we are at currently and even $1000. I don't care so much about the price, but it is still a very interesting thing to consider as we are still trying to understand what this is...

I didn't know that. Mind to tell, where I can find such information?

Oh yeah, there is nothing stopping it after that.  I've just learned to be a little more patient with BitStamp.  You see how long it took to break through 130, right?  

Additionally, it would seem to me there is alot of continued upward push.  As bearish as I like to be, I still see nothing but "open road" ahead.  Obviously one whale could send this whole thing crashing but as it stands, this looks to have some continued power behind it.