Volume isn't just lower compared to post-crash, but also before that:
That's probably because of the recent incidents with regulations. Many people are waiting until that is cleared up before they can confidently trade again on Gox. Until then the volume will stay extremely low, with short increases in volume during price changes.
Wishful thinking, bull.
A more likely scenario is that speculators consider the price too high (potential reward greatly outweighed by risk at the moment), stubborn miners in a more competitive environment are holding positions, stubborn sellers are not willing to go lower than their entry point and there is a much reduced flow of money into Gox for numerous reasons, including potential new investors sitting on the sidelines viewing a stagnant price and considering the likely weaker returns. Doubful that the regulations are primarily responsible for widespread panic or reluctance to buy in. It is true that the regulations make it more difficult to get money into Gox, but generally only for the criminal-minded. If you have nothing to hide, it is still easy to transfer money, for example via wire.
I would entertain the possibility that recent regulations have scared away a small minority of criminals who were using bitcoin for money laundering. If this minority was responsible for most of the previous volume and are now absent, then I'd bet on a long, drawn-out downturn.
thread getting quiet again so i add my two cents:
I think money laundering is still very easy despite coming regulations and with everything around bitcoin adapting/growing more and more I can't see any long downturn (It's like to foresee a long downturn because silkroad is put down for some months). Governments must figure out a way to integrate digital currencies into their financial and lawsystem.
As always that takes quite some time and even then they won't get a complete hold of it. (I mean they still haven't completely figured that prevention of launderying out with fiat how will they succeed doing that with btc???)
Imo the low volume is because we're still in the situation with an oversold market. Too many bears have sold around 120$ in the last weeks and can't believe it's still not going down despite FR news and they don't want to buy in at loss.
Low volumes would logically just put marketaction away from daytrading into another timezone with speculators selling/buying and holding fiat/btc in longer timespans until next big swings they can hop onto.
so everything went to slow-motion.
I awaited bigger selloff around 135$ some days ago (which came) but it didn't push all the way down. So with wallzilla in mind i would say we could scratch 140$ soon and settle between 130-140$ next week with some up and downswings.
Don't know what happens if wallzilla is away again but there wasn't much movement before it appeared so I really can't imagine going under 120$ for next week (perhaps a little nibbling as we haven't tested it before.
You never know...one little news flick and shorttime panicmode is on again.
So I'm no expert but watching the progress of may altogether things look quite good. Everything began with big dump, followed by small dumping and no serious panicsells with FR news, we now finished that month with more than 30% plus since dobledigitdisaster and haven't returned there once.
I'm longterm bull so I always look at longer timespans...
.....only thing I just don't trust is that wall (it feels securing and frightening at the same time
).
i think i sold too early.... oh well, i'm confident if i wait long enough i'll buy back lower...
