Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33503.

sarc

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Quote from: fluidjax on June 05, 2013, 06:29:16 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 05, 2013, 05:05:55 AM

Quote from: notme on June 05, 2013, 04:54:10 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 05, 2013, 04:52:47 AM

Go on, crash, you know it makes sense...

But also consider what it means if it doesn't. This is also a possibility.

stagnation?

If this type of trend line meant anything... if we extrapolate from the year 2000 using this chart

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

the FTSE should be around 50,000.

so your point is that I'm wildly overestimating the price?

barbs

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I chucked a buy order for 120.12 @ 1 btc and it got filled.. either i got goxxed or someone else did..

Goxxed! who's got a gif

Dargumin

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The volume on gox is really low today. Around the 15-16,000 mark. Are we stable for the next few days then?

ChartBuddy

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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

sarc

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Quote from: EuroTrash on June 05, 2013, 06:44:55 AM

Quote

ok then.

Plotted using sigmaplot.

regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data.

There lies the problem. You choose what is bubble data and whatnot.

it's not exactly a subtle change...

EuroTrash

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Quote

ok then.

Plotted using sigmaplot.

regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data.

There lies the problem. You choose what is bubble data and whatnot.

sarc

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Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: San1ty on June 05, 2013, 06:30:55 AM

Quote from: prof7bit on June 05, 2013, 06:28:50 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 05, 2013, 04:52:47 AM

Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different.

The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there".

ok then.

Plotted using sigmaplot.

regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data.

bitcoin price (logged) = -0.0635+0.0013791*time

predicted price= $24.24

when I first saw this, I sold everything. edit: all bitcoins

barbs

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Gox shitting a brick right now? Huh

prof7bit

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https://youengine.io/

Quote from: San1ty on June 05, 2013, 06:30:55 AM

The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there".

Its not only the line, its the entire curve, the proportions are completely wrong. compare with the log charts at bitcoincharts.com or *any* other log chart of bitcoin price I have ever seen anywhere.

San1ty

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Quote from: prof7bit on June 05, 2013, 06:28:50 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 05, 2013, 04:52:47 AM

Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different.

The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there".

fluidjax

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Activity: 750

Merit: 601

Quote from: sarc on June 05, 2013, 05:05:55 AM

Quote from: notme on June 05, 2013, 04:54:10 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 05, 2013, 04:52:47 AM

Go on, crash, you know it makes sense...

But also consider what it means if it doesn't. This is also a possibility.

stagnation?

If this type of trend line meant anything... if we extrapolate from the year 2000 using this chart

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

the FTSE should be around 50,000.

prof7bit

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Activity: 938

Merit: 500

https://youengine.io/

Quote from: sarc on June 05, 2013, 04:52:47 AM

Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different.

sarc

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Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: notme on June 05, 2013, 04:54:10 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 05, 2013, 04:52:47 AM

Go on, crash, you know it makes sense...

But also consider what it means if it doesn't. This is also a possibility.

stagnation?

notme

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Quote from: sarc on June 05, 2013, 04:52:47 AM

Go on, crash, you know it makes sense...

But also consider what it means if it doesn't. This is also a possibility.

sarc

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Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Go on, crash, you know it makes sense...

notme

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Quote from: giszmo on June 04, 2013, 11:40:17 PM

Quote from: Frozenlock on June 04, 2013, 10:05:37 PM

Quote from: Dumbastronaut on June 04, 2013, 10:04:05 PM

Indeed, I've heard you're officially allowed to enter the circle jerk that makes up this thread. You stop following your own analysis and start expecting bitcoin to go up because well, it's bitcoin! I can't wait till I get to 684!

Not really.
Most bears have an old or high number posts account.

There was a thread once where somebody promised quite some reward for the best guess of the bitcoin price by some date. Back then I also did the analysis of how bullishness/bearishness correlates to the post count. It turned out there was a clear correlation between spread and post count. The more posts the more they agreed on a moderately higher price.

Damn. Found it. I post too much: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1472018

And the price was higher on the date in question. So the question is, if you did the same study right before the price goes down, would high post count still correlate with high estimates, or would it correlate with correct estimates?

Frozenlock

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Well yeah, in January. You know, before the price made a little multiplication by ten... Wink

giszmo

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WalletScrutiny.com

Quote from: Frozenlock on June 04, 2013, 10:05:37 PM

Quote from: Dumbastronaut on June 04, 2013, 10:04:05 PM

Indeed, I've heard you're officially allowed to enter the circle jerk that makes up this thread. You stop following your own analysis and start expecting bitcoin to go up because well, it's bitcoin! I can't wait till I get to 684!

Not really.
Most bears have an old or high number posts account.

There was a thread once where somebody promised quite some reward for the best guess of the bitcoin price by some date. Back then I also did the analysis of how bullishness/bearishness correlates to the post count. It turned out there was a clear correlation between spread and post count. The more posts the more they agreed on a moderately higher price.

Damn. Found it. I post too much: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1472018

Frozenlock

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Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Quote from: Dumbastronaut on June 04, 2013, 10:04:05 PM

Indeed, I've heard you're officially allowed to enter the circle jerk that makes up this thread. You stop following your own analysis and start expecting bitcoin to go up because well, it's bitcoin! I can't wait till I get to 684!

Not really.
Most bears have an old or high number posts account.

Dumbastronaut

member

Activity: 126

Merit: 16

Quote from: Adrian-x on June 04, 2013, 09:18:04 PM

Quote from: MAbtc on June 04, 2013, 07:43:17 PM

Most of us here, I think, are bullish in the long term. But... the bubble is over? I don't know about that. Long term charts are scary as hell looking for someone holding 100% BTC. There is plenty of room to fall and nowhere near the hype that took us to 266. Until we are comfortably in 170+ territory, I am not confident that this is over.

Your views transform when you post score goes over 684 (currently Posts: 172) it'll change you in ways you would have never consider.

Indeed, I've heard you're officially allowed to enter the circle jerk that makes up this thread. You stop following your own analysis and start expecting bitcoin to go up because well, it's bitcoin! I can't wait till I get to 684!

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33503. (Read 26716778 times)