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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33628. (Read 26713876 times)

hero member
Activity: 669
Merit: 500

Here's one scenario which could release a lot of tied up BTC and drive the price down.

A lot of people have Bitcoin tied up in ASICMINER shares, for those of you who aren't aware ASICMINER has more than doubled in price over the last couple of weeks and it appears to have already peaked at the moment.

Any large scale sell off of these shares will free up a lot of Bitcoin for profit taking. That's many 1000's of Bitcoin and they could be dumped at a moments notice.


You are mistaken in your logic. Trading shares have a net sum of zero once they are issued. For every seller there is a buyer.
legendary
Activity: 2097
Merit: 1070

Seeing a time-compressed chart like this reminds me how much it has zoomed up already. Is it greedy to expect similar increases so soon? Even a gentle upward trend for the rest of the year would be a phenomenal result.


Agreed, but can you tell us what we are dealing with here? Are we talking a currency, stock, commodity, protocol, technology, etc? This is the "problem" and when you add to that the world economic situation, crazy weather patterns, wars and on and on, it becomes an even bigger unknown.

We can't look at this like a regular currency, stock, etc. and we must consider the times. The clue we have is the direction is most probably up. The question is, how much and fast? We can probably agree that we don't know what we are dealing with here.

It is unique, just like the internet was unique when it came out. Comparing BTC to anything traditional is skipping over a lot of variables.

I very much agree with this. Market wise it's clear that we're going up very soon, but the question is such raise is backed by real value or just speculation. I don't see so many exciting news as of lately. It would be important if many websites and retail stores would start accepting bitcoin.

LOL, nothing is clear or guaranteed in any way.

Here's one scenario which could release a lot of tied up BTC and drive the price down.

A lot of people have Bitcoin tied up in ASICMINER shares, for those of you who aren't aware ASICMINER has more than doubled in price over the last couple of weeks and it appears to have already peaked at the moment.

Any large scale sell off of these shares will free up a lot of Bitcoin for profit taking. That's many 1000's of Bitcoin and they could be dumped at a moments notice.

I'm wondering if that guy who purchased $1 Million worth of Bitcoin last friday has been pumping ASICMINER shares all week with his BTC. The timing seems about right to me.
sr. member
Activity: 371
Merit: 250

It would be important if many websites and retail stores would start accepting bitcoin.

That should be easy enough... Grin....oh wait... Roll Eyes




积少成多,聚沙成塔
Many small amounts are a lot; Many sand grains form a pagoda
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1026

Seeing a time-compressed chart like this reminds me how much it has zoomed up already. Is it greedy to expect similar increases so soon? Even a gentle upward trend for the rest of the year would be a phenomenal result.




+1 Grin
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 250

It would be important if many websites and retail stores would start accepting bitcoin.

That should be easy enough... Grin....oh wait... Roll Eyes
full member
Activity: 194
Merit: 100

Seeing a time-compressed chart like this reminds me how much it has zoomed up already. Is it greedy to expect similar increases so soon? Even a gentle upward trend for the rest of the year would be a phenomenal result.


Agreed, but can you tell us what we are dealing with here? Are we talking a currency, stock, commodity, protocol, technology, etc? This is the "problem" and when you add to that the world economic situation, crazy weather patterns, wars and on and on, it becomes an even bigger unknown.

We can't look at this like a regular currency, stock, etc. and we must consider the times. The clue we have is the direction is most probably up. The question is, how much and fast? We can probably agree that we don't know what we are dealing with here.

It is unique, just like the internet was unique when it came out. Comparing BTC to anything traditional is skipping over a lot of variables.

I very much agree with this. Market wise it's clear that we're going up very soon, but the question is such raise is backed by real value or just speculation. I don't see so many exciting news as of lately. It would be important if many websites and retail stores would start accepting bitcoin.
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile

Seeing a time-compressed chart like this reminds me how much it has zoomed up already. Is it greedy to expect similar increases so soon? Even a gentle upward trend for the rest of the year would be a phenomenal result.


Agreed, but can you tell us what we are dealing with here? Are we talking a currency, stock, commodity, protocol, technology, etc? This is the "problem" and when you add to that the world economic situation, crazy weather patterns, wars and on and on, it becomes an even bigger unknown.

We can't look at this like a regular currency, stock, etc. and we must consider the times. The clue we have is the direction is most probably up. The question is, how much and fast? We can probably agree that we don't know what we are dealing with here.

It is unique, just like the internet was unique when it came out. Comparing BTC to anything traditional is skipping over a lot of variables.
legendary
Activity: 1078
Merit: 1006
100 satoshis -> ISO code

Seeing a time-compressed chart like this reminds me how much it has zoomed up already. Is it greedy to expect similar increases so soon? Even a gentle upward trend for the rest of the year would be a phenomenal result.

legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1823
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1000
Antifragile
Well , I can't afford the luxury to "hoard" or keep bitcoins but i have a bad feeling about people forgeting that is was supposed to be a currency not some collectibles.
If you check the stats at blockchain you see transaction volumes dwindling and this is a bad sign in my opinion.

I'm no bear and no bull , for me the best price change will be 0 either up or down for a few months. I had enough shocks last 12 months Wink


The VC's and projects going on now are moving BTC ahead. It is going to take time. If there is a need for BTC (and there certainly seems like one) then it will get used. We are talking lots of money to be saved.

You are right, people do forget about it being a currency and not to be hoarded, but at the same time value is being created by the dwindling supply. And when you use those 8 decimal places you have enough bits to do lots and lots of commerce with.

Hoarding, in the end, will have next to nothing to do with BTC's success or failure. Some holding (hoarding) actually helps the value. The early adopters, Satoshi, and many many users will make sure large scale hoarding never happens. But we are not even near that, lots of coins and years still to come. There is a point to this experiment...
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 501
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!

100% Agree! Get in front or you might get run over!  Grin



I'm not sure about major move, I do see slowly climbing into the $130s.
hero member
Activity: 826
Merit: 501
in defi we trust
Well , I can't afford the luxury to "hoard" or keep bitcoins but i have a bad feeling about people forgeting that is was supposed to be a currency not some collectibles.
If you check the stats at blockchain you see transaction volumes dwindling and this is a bad sign in my opinion.

I'm no bear and no bull , for me the best price change will be 0 either up or down for a few months. I had enough shocks last 12 months Wink
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 250
^^Wow, I think we all just got trolled. I know what to say to get bitcoiners going now.
sr. member
Activity: 411
Merit: 250
Bulls on Bitstamp are shifting a gear up.

 olmost there..  time to buy up what's left of cheap coins..
If that is arbitrage buying, that's probably why the gox price stalled, the coins are being dumped there simultaneously (for a profit).

then you can expect some bigger uptrend next week Smiley or who knows.. tomorrow.    last friday some big bull started buying if i'm not mistaken :

to be honest.. i dont think the arbitrage game between bitstamp en gox does much on the price at gox.. volume on bitstamp is not big enough imho.

hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 501
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
That's pretty big news. I don't like the sound of it one bit. The media could dine out on that.

Under 10% of people in China own a car. 40% of families don't own a fridge. The average Chinese person has the same buying power an 9 year old american boy. The people in China with money, will buy/hold/sell BTC as they please. Mass adoption in China was overblown, buying a fridge ranks slightly higher then BTC.

Be careful of statistics, they can show anything you want. Speaking of which...

China has 1.35 Billion People and the US has 315 Million. Now, the US is far and away the biggest BTC using country.
Now try to put your numbers together with my numbers. Remove 40% of the Chines population just on account of the fridges for surely if you don't have a fridge you won't have a computer. But hmmm, maybe you will have an android phone. Anyway, we'll play it safe. So, there is another 810 million people, that is 2.67 times the American population. Without going any further, see where I am going? And if we continue to have currency issues peoples awareness is just going to grow.

How many BTC you think we got anyway?  Grin

90% don't own a car. But they're going to use money holding BTC? There is 0 domestic economy in China. Which is their problem.

The people with money, will buy/hold/use BTC. The rest? They weren't a factor anyway.

Any attack by Chinese Govt, probably makes it more popular.

Overall, there were an estimated 254.4 million registered passenger vehicles in the United States.

According to the US Bureau of Transportation Statistics for 2009 there are 254,212,610 registered passenger vehicles. Of these, 193,979,654 were classified as "Light duty vehicle, short wheel base, while another 40,488,025 were listed as "Light duty vehicle, long wheel base." Yet another 8,356,097 were classified as vehicles with 2 axles and 6 tires and 2,617,118 were classified as "Truck, combination." There were approximately 7,929,724 motorcycles in the US in 2009.

RESULT:

USA:    193M cars / 315M people = 61%
CHINA:  10% from 1,315M people = 131M cars

193M cars vs 131M cars is not so big difference

Don't compare the USA vs China domestic economies. That's silly. It's not even close. Come back in 40 years.

Currently BTC falls under discrtionary spending. Which requires a computer, net access, and of course money. That cuts out conservatively 50% of China right off the bat.

Compare the GDPs, USA about 9x higher. You can't compare population 1:1, compare it 1:9.

My point was, in terms of BTC, we're talking 1%. Those 1% play by different rules, they will still get BTC, they will still buy/hold/sell. Regardless of what the Govt does. Having the average Chinese person able to get into Bitcoin, right now that's not a goldmine, despite what people would lead you to believe. 2020? Probably a different story (unless of course you believe China's econcomy is a bubble ;0).

Having some new restriction on the average Chinese person from accessing Bitcoin, that's very minor at this point. All the good news in the USA about Bitcoin, is what matters. China's growth is icing on the cake which the Govt can't really stop (the people in China involved with BTC have money, computers, they won't be hurt by this news).



legendary
Activity: 2324
Merit: 1125
[ Eventually, once the price stabilized you will get more people without any wealth what so ever buying BTC as a store of value.


People hoarding BTC will kill it.

It dies if no-one wants it. Hoarding is quite opposite Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 250
People hoarding BTC will kill it.
Objection! Statement not found in evidence.
hero member
Activity: 841
Merit: 1000
[ Eventually, once the price stabilized you will get more people without any wealth what so ever buying BTC as a store of value.


People hoarding BTC will kill it.

How? If your hoard and don't spend then 1 - the price will be stable and 2- people will use the remaining BTC's, taking advantage of the 8 decimal places, for commerce. It doesn't matter how many are in "hoard mode" as long as it is being used. Those 8 decimal places are brilliant. Who knows, we may have to move it up to 11.

And realistically, if the value is high, why would anyone want to hoard it? Clearly speculators would take profits. Not to mention the early adopters selling some to help make political change and change in general.

Seeeeee the contradiction?
Please read carefully.
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