Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33634. (Read 26496116 times)
May 08, 2013, 09:27:14 PM
Darnit. I keep getting disconnected from the MtGox websocket (clarkmoody).
May 08, 2013, 09:23:48 PM
Sure. But the zero just means displacement from the mean. A car's suspension is a damped oscillation but that doesn't mean it goes through the road when you run over a squirrel.
Agreed. But because price variance observes a Cauchy distribution, rather than a Gaussian one, so the "mean" is meaningless (pardon the pun) and can only be determined retrospectively from the oscillations.
What is more interesting to me is why, when the oscillation has about died away, the tendency seems to be for things to fly off in one direction or the other. I don't seen any obvious mechanism.
The mechanism is the butterfly effect in Chaos theory (which I confess I don't have more than an overview of). It is the butterfly effect. I think we saw this at $97 when someone bought 5,000 coins and a run to $166 resulted.
Nononono.
Obviously it's a Dirac function applied in order to be able to characterize the system's function.
How are we suppose to program good trading bots otherwise?
May 08, 2013, 09:23:31 PM
Okay I just dumped 126, looking for someone else to jump on this and drive it to $108
Dumping 50 at 108
120 at 107.80
and 150 at 107.5
to keep the motion down
Shit just sell me the 150 at 107.5 now
At least then we can save the Gox fees! 
May 08, 2013, 09:21:54 PM
Sure. But the zero just means displacement from the mean. A car's suspension is a damped oscillation but that doesn't mean it goes through the road when you run over a squirrel.
Agreed. But because price variance observes a Cauchy distribution, rather than a Gaussian one, the "mean" is meaningless (pardon the pun) and can only be determined retrospectively from the oscillations.
What is more interesting to me is why, when the oscillation has about died away, the tendency seems to be for things to fly off in one direction or the other. I don't seen any obvious mechanism.
The mechanism is the butterfly effect in Chaos theory (which I confess I don't have more than an overview of). I think we saw this at $97 when someone bought 5,000 coins and a run to $166 resulted.
May 08, 2013, 09:20:51 PM
Okay I just dumped 126, looking for someone else to jump on this and drive it to $108
Dumping 50 at 108
120 at 107.80
and 150 at 107.5
to keep the motion down
Bear plunge team?
Bear dunk and dumb team ;-)
May 08, 2013, 09:19:59 PM
Okay I just dumped 126, looking for someone else to jump on this and drive it to $108
Dumping 50 at 108
120 at 107.80
and 150 at 107.5
to keep the motion down
Bear plunge team?
May 08, 2013, 09:19:14 PM
I have updated my recent analysis (I can see why you guys have so much fun with this line drawing business)
While the tone is rather playful, the general gist of the above chart holds some weight in my opinion
While the tone is rather playful
, the general gist of the above chart holds some weight in my opinionfavourite TA post ever, thank you so much for this
May 08, 2013, 09:18:15 PM
Okay I just dumped 126, looking for someone else to jump on this and drive it to $108
Dumping 50 at 108
120 at 107.80
and 150 at 107.5
to keep the motion down
May 08, 2013, 09:16:04 PM
Okay I just dumped 126, looking for someone else to jump on this and drive it to $108
May 08, 2013, 09:15:25 PM
As the old saying says:
Quote
Disregard emotions, acquire BTCs.
Oh. My. Gawd.
Did you print this? Do you have the model?
I was just searching randomly and
http://www.shapeways.com/model/725214/joseph-ducreux-sculpture.html?li=productBox-search
I think I may buy one myself. Very reasonably priced.
Also
May 08, 2013, 09:15:13 PM
Sure. But the zero just means displacement from the mean. A car's suspension is a damped oscillation but that doesn't mean it goes through the road when you run over a squirrel.
What is more interesting to me is why, when the oscillation has about died away, the tendency seems to be for things to fly off in one direction or the other. I don't seen any obvious mechanism.
108 broken
May 08, 2013, 09:14:15 PM
Sure. But the zero just means displacement from the mean. A car's suspension is a damped oscillation but that doesn't mean it goes through the road when you run over a squirrel.
What is more interesting to me is why, when the oscillation has about died away, the tendency seems to be for things to fly off in one direction or the other. I don't seen any obvious mechanism.
May 08, 2013, 09:14:10 PM
I purposely only nap for 4 hours and the price dropped $5 =.='
May 08, 2013, 09:13:56 PM
As the old saying says:
Quote
Disregard emotions, acquire BTCs.
Oh. My. Gawd.
Did you print this? Do you have the model?
May 08, 2013, 09:10:34 PM
It's usually drawn as a triangle. But as someone with a physics background, I see it like this:
Right. But an alteration is required to reflect markets being different from analogue wave-forms. The Y-axis can't go below zero, so the quiescent state is at some positive value. For Bitcoin, during the first oscillation it was $115.34, the 2nd it was $114.66 and the last it is $110.36 (as it changes with time).
Sure. But the zero just means displacement from the mean. A car's suspension is a damped oscillation but that doesn't mean it goes through the road when you run over a squirrel.
May 08, 2013, 09:09:05 PM
As the old saying says:
Quote
Disregard emotions, acquire BTCs.
May 08, 2013, 09:08:30 PM
Looks like a definite change of trend. Give a few more hours to confirm direction. More volume on the downside would also be expected if this is a major move.
May 08, 2013, 09:08:21 PM
Time to sell little Goomboos 
May 08, 2013, 09:07:39 PM
May 08, 2013, 09:04:32 PM
Looks like if I dropped 126 coins on gox right now I could bring the price to 108 and make 1 BTC. I wonder how many times I could do that right now? 3-4? Thoughts?
Do it... and then together we buy 500!!
I'm so tempted. I am watching the orders right now.
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