The amount of time we are taking on these levels which are below 200 MA is what scares the shit out of me.
+1 to that. But to be fair it is a weekend. Which is why they dumped in the first place.
We were already in a channel more or less under 200 WMA, between about that and ~10% below. IMO, it had been doing that for long enough to be teetering on borderline breakage. I had been hoping for a scenario like August–September 2015—scraping along just below/just above for a month, then recovering. At this point, since we crashed even below the previous cycle top (even in nominal dollars, never mind real value!), I think that 200 WMA is quite dead. Not “Bitcoin is dead”: Excessive reliance on a technical indicator is dead.
Gold had a two-decade extreme bear market. Anyone who bought gold at the wrong time had to wait an awful lot longer than four years to be not underwater. I also think that was a politically motivated economic attack, though I don’t want to get into off-topic discussion here that will derail into other matters. (I have mentioned this in some prior post, a few weeks ago... Something about gold-producing countries under international sanctions.)
Only fools declared gold dead. Smart people bought gold as low as ~$260, not so very long ago.
If we can escape from erroneous thinking about Bitcoin as “like a stock”, and really start treating it as digital gold, then there is ample precedent for shrugging off much worse crashes and bear markets than I now anticipate. As bad as this one is. Even if we are still nowhere near the bottom—maybe; maybe not; I am realistically pessimistic, but not prepared to make a call either way.
The amount of time we are taking on these levels which are below 200 WMA is what scares the shit out of me.
Quote from: ImThour’s Personal Text
Low IQ Finds TA = Astrology.
FTFY. As an inveterate pedant, I could not resist.
The previous cycle high was the *last* piece of TA that BTC chart had not violated previously. ... It was an almost religious symbol to some ppl.
Now that violation has happened, individuals have to make their decision... either say:
1. ' this indicates some serious imminent unknown, so BTC is broken in some way'
or 2. ' No form of TA applies anymore, so HODL as an act of pure faith'
Gold historical comparison is a helpful justification for (2), which is probably the line most WO posters would take.
Hmmmm... personally I would not consider the last ATH as having been broken, until it has at the very least been opened and closed below, by a long term timeframe (weekly at the minimum or above)
