Even with less than 0.05 BTC, I am drastically “overinvested” in BTC as % of all the money and investment assets that I have.
From the various stories that I heard form you.. it does not sound like 0.05 BTC would be overinvested, and there are not too many scenarios in which 0.05 BTC would be over invested, but I suppose you can make those kind of determinations if you believe that they adequately describe your situation in terms of helping you to figure out how you want to act going forward, if at all.
Jay, I just lost almost all of my assets. 0.05 BTC is a
lot of money to me right now!
I have already leaked way too much information about my finances; I don’t want to give exact, or even approximate numbers on what else I have. But for a real-life
reductio ad absurdum, let’s put it this way:
When I hit a personal local bottom in 2017, I knew that I had to get some Bitcoin. At some point, a family member gave me local fiat equivalent to about $400 for food and other basic survival. I used half of it to buy BTC. Would you call that “overinvested”?
We may well be talking past each other.. because I am not recommending overinvesting as a strategy (or a good thing) in the context that you seem to be using it.. because I do not recommend gambling as a way of investing.
In other words, there is almost no fucking way that either I can (or anyone else with any level of practical prudence -
beyond the level of a snot nosed 14-year old - no offense to snot-nosed 14-year olds- in these here parts -
sorry to be speaking for others) can necessarily go over every little basics with all of the forum members -
(and maybe that is one of the reasons that I thought that it might be a good idea for you to get some kind of a mentor?), and one of the basics 101 remains don't fucking invest in anything into anything until you get your shit together first so that you can determine that you have a budget to even be investing.
Don't get me wrong.. I am not suggesting that all credit cards are paid off and completely extract yourself from all the mess that you got into over your 50+ years of life or whatever it might happen to be.. first before investing, but I am suggesting to figure out all your shit; including knowing your debts, liabilities, cashflows and future expenses and aspects about evaluating various properties and investments that you already have.. and some other aspects of your personality / psychology - risk tolerance, etc.. These kinds of basics should all be within the grasp of normie newbies to be anle to achieve or to learn how to do it, but also some normie newbies have some bad fucking habits, but some basic analysis of various facts (and does not mean that they are dumb but in fact might mean that they are too smart to recognize that they need to fix their basics and stop assuming that more complicated is better than basics)
In other words normie levels of skills and abilities should allow such normies newbies to figure out their basics so long as their ego is not always getting in the sway.. so that is an emotional matter too.. or need to filter out how smart or experienced that they are when some of that is getting in the way of their employing basics..
Yes, you need to have your basics covered first, such as expenses and even an emergency fund and potentially a variety of ways to have emergency expenses in the event that your cash flow has some interruptions so that you cannot cover your basis living expenses.
When I was fresh out of high school and I did not have shit to my name and barely any income, I learned quite a few of these basics, put them to practice over and over and even made a lot of misassessments had misunderstandings about evaluations but still striving for improvements, and I made a lot of mistakes along the way, but I still started to developed some good habits to project my cashflow out ahead 3-6 months in the beginning, but the more complicated my cashflow and expenses and assets and debts became, the longer I felt that I needed to project those matters out
(frequently 24 months would be long enough on the outside), including always having various running cushions of never going below the cushion amount.. or almost never.. and always having various sources that I could draw upon in the event that I wanted to consume more, make some investment, take out a loan or whatever that I was doing or considering doing.
At the same time, I tended to shoot for investing at least 10% of my incoming cash on an ongoing basis, and I also made a whole fuck ton of mistakes by draining out some of the principle and/or profits at various points that ultimately were too early for consumption like items, some living expenses or even investments that were not really sufficiently good investments in the way that I know have learned to classify my consumption and investment a wee bit moar better in terms of giving some assessment to depreciating value and appreciating value to the best that those can be calculated. .. and of course sometimes interfering with the powerful dynamic of compounding ... learn learn learn.. and some good (and better) practices build therein, too.
If it had subsequently crashed, and I had declared “strong hands”, would you have said that I was unworried only because I had too little BTC to care?
I would say: "what the fuck are you doing?" Do you got your shit together first?
I spent the next five years building up a decently-sized holding. Not whale-sized, but respectable Bitcoiner middle-class. I was well on my way from rags to riches.
Well.. I doubt that it really matters if you had the best fucking risk management practices in the world, if you end up gambling with more than just a small fraction of your principle, then you are fucked if that gamble does not end up working 0ut.. except maybe learning some kind of lesson.. perhaps?..
It may take a while to learn not to be playing or fucking around with significant portions of your principle, but if you do it and lose it, then you are likely back to the basics..
Seems to me that there are no shortcuts outside of gambling.. and I do not recommend gambling..
Sure maybe you have some advantages when you are older from your age and your experiences, if you just might have better habits to start over at a later date as compared to when you were 18 and just graduating from high school.. perhaps? perhaps? but in the end seems to me that if you are not back to square 1 out of 100 squares, then you are at least back to square 10.. even if you might have been close to square 70 or whatever at the time of your principle losing fuckup
I am not nearly so badly off now as in 2017, but 0.05 BTC is suddenly a huge amount to me. (Thanks, margin account!)
Ok.. at least you are making progress.., I suppose.
Of note, 0.05 BTC is now money that I cannot afford to lose—in the sense of “don’t invest what you can’t afford to lose”. Am I “overinvested”? Should I hedge with some fiat by mindrusting?
You have to do what you believe is best in terms of how to balance your various preparations for the BTC price to move in either direction... including accounting for all of your personal circumstances including but not limited to your cashflow, other investments, view of bitcoin as compared with other investments, timeline, risk tolerance, time, skills and abilities to strategize, plan, research and learn along the way including tweaking strategies from time to time to consider trading, reallocating, use of leverage and/or financial instruments.. As you may well realize leverage and financial instruments are more advanced techniques and are not completely necessary.. especially prior to getting your basics down first.
By the way.. you seem to be trolling me with your continued ongoing nonsense question about whether you are overinvested.
Just for the sake that we are in a public thread. and I have my questions about whether you are even trying to learn about the concept.. (thus your trolling of the idea as well as your trolling me about some of your other dumb ideas related to proof of stake and also bitcoin as a stock and a few other dumb and/or misleading points that you continue to make.. a couple of your recent dumb ones related to gold supposedly being comparable to bitcoin, the 200-week moving average as being broken., no coiners and low coiners are the same as any other pro bitcoin person in terms of their cheerleading for downity (such as what you seem doing). and I would not put it past you to proclaim that the stock to flow model is broken, dead and/or unimportant too.. hahahahaaha).. You might be smart about some other topics but you have some problem conceptual areas, too. including but likely to limited to the above topics.. are you broken? #nohomo.. .
Anyhow, just to attempt to flesh this matter out a wee bit moar better, I frequently use the term "overinvested" in a kind of way intended to figure out some kind of state that any of us could get to in which we have reached our investment target (whether that is somewhere in the 1-25% allocation level or some other level that we may well choose for ourselves and our circumstances) and we are sufficiently profitable (whether that is 2x, 5x, 25x, 100x or whatever, maybe in line with some of the SSS investment ideas of Rpietila) and we also may have ended up overallocating... there are quite a few ways to still balance out those matters but still a kind of status of over-invested may well give more portfolio management flexibility and options.. and sure not as many options as reaching initial fuck you status or even more advanced fuck you status, but surely some advantages in terms of being sufficiently well in profits and having way more bitcoins than our target investment level.. and maybe another idea could still be whether there would be concerns about selling BTC on dips including but not limited to extreme BTC dips such as being at or below the 200-week moving average, which is really not a good practice to be selling too many BTC at such levels (even if in an overinvested status), but being overinvested still provides a lot of options to do whatever you want based on your own cashflow needs or things that might come up, even if it might have been better to try to be more strategic about trying to not sell BTC when its price is at historical low price points , as being at, near or below the 200 week moving average like we are at currently.. and for more than the last week.. and maybe even there could be concerns about selling much BTC when the last month and a half to two months we have been below the 100-week moving average.. but being below the 100-week moving average is surely not as extreme as being at, near or below the 200-week moving average.
Again, what is this POS type of talk?
Fuck off with your nonsense.. You should know better than that. I am
not talking about proof of stake.. are you fucking retarded? just asking for emphasis sake.
When you tell me something fucking retarded, then maybe I should also tell you to fuck off with your nonsense:
Sounds good.
Let the market burn, as I frolic in the sunshine!
I think that we have already established that no coiners and low coiners have tendencies to be assholes in that kind of a way..
Therefore one of the likely strongest solutions from contributing towards mitigating your asshole tendencies is for you to get a meaningful and substantial stake in our lil precious.. so get out there dear trooper/soldier and get in the mode of stacking some sats.. stack a meaningful and substantial amount.. nothing whimpy like some other members... who will remain unnamed.. at least for the time being.
It would probably apply to most people. You are talking to me, not to most people. I was patient before: I only made a few snide remarks about your use of POS language. Well, fuck off with that nonsense.
Hardly even worth entertaining you on the topic.
Getting a stake in bitcoin is not talking about POS.
focus..
focus
focus..
I am not going to be told that my language does not make sense.. There is no reason to suggest that my use of the word stake has anything to do with POS.
POS diptwats have no power over me (or anyone else who wants to talk about stake in relation to their bitcoin investment strategies) or my use of the word stake in terms of its already existing parlance.
About 20 years ago, I took a drastic realized loss in the stock market. The loss was in a fiat currency that I despise in principle, so I laughed and walked away. “It’s only money.”
In the past five months, I have devoted my life to struggling to save my BTC that I betrayed by foolishly collateralizing it. Months of private hell, clinging to my BTC. I lost it anyway. Now, I am in grieving—grieving. It is not “only money”. Bitcoin is money, and it is more than money: To me, it is like a living creature.
Fuck off with your nonsense that somehow I don’t care enough because I don’t have enough. You are insulting me, and rubbing salt in an open wound.
Did someone say something mean to you on the internet? that seems to be your issue.. not mine. I am sufficiently describing the concept of getting stake and the motivations that are caused by levels of stake (whether you agree or not);. if it does not apply to you and your situation or not then so be it. that is your opinion and my opinion may differ, as I already said a few time.. no need to be insulted in regards to what others (including yours truly) might think, believe or how we might express our thoughts on a topic (including if we might be mistaking your situation or intentional in our mistakes, which I deny being intentionally any more rude than I need to be to make a point.. and I doubt that I am being disingenuine, either.. even though you can agree to disagree on that part of the matter too...
.. we can agree to disagree and you can take it personally if you like.. or you can try to remember that we are in a public thread and people are not necessarily going to cow tow to definitions or even your perceptions of whether or not you have enough stake or our perceptions about whether you have enough stake or if you might be action like a no coiner in some ways wen you are cheering for downity. .
To any extent that I may wish to see the bear market continue for awhile, it is only a desire not to get fucked both ways as I know
often befalls people who lose their coins. That leaves me as a more extreme, quite panicked and desperate version of the happy Bitcoiner in the bottom panel here:
Of course BTC's current price situation is not comfortable and of course it is stressful.. including more stressful for some folks as compared with other folks.. so I am not telling you to change your feelings either.. Whatever feelings that you have are yours, and it is your choice about whether you want to bring up your matters in this thread.. I am not trying to be purposefully mean, but I am not going to self-censor too much either.. so some of the interactions might not be good and we might not agree. .. and maybe you are not even in a great battle position currently anyhow (either financially or psychologically.. they are related and sometimes we cannot maintain any kind of detachment or separation), but you cannot really incentivize people to be nice, and if you demand it, then some people might even become meaner.. on purpose.. so I am not saying that I will do that.. but I might.. Times like this are emotional for a lot of us in varying kinds of ways..and maybe for different reasons.
A couple of days ago, I was invited to a party, and I came up with an excuse
not to go, because I was not quite ready to deal with some of the "concerns" that were likely going to be expressed about my bitcoin situation from some no coiners that were going to be in attendance.. and we already had a history of interactions too...
Yesterday I did end up going to another gathering and some of those same "concerned" folks were present at that gathering, and for sure there were some who were very excited to raise "the bitcoin question".. excitement.. wow.. .. but when they raised their concerns.. I was ready.. and pretty much I had to tell a couple of them that they are NOT as educated on the topic as they were self-proclaiming themselves to be merely based on recent and ongoing negative BTC price movements.. Some parts of our interactions were not comfortable, but we were able to get back to other topics and I did not have to end up allowing their different perspective cause me to feel like I needed to be overly confrontational than I was.. even though some confrontation ended up being necessary.. as I kind of anticipated was going to happen.. Anyhow, I did make a choice to avoid those same people for a couple of days prior to my own choice about when to actually interact with them and to have some ideas about some of the issues that they might end up raising, and in the end, they are not really well enough informed about the bitcoin topic beyond some mainstream news talking points that might come up from time to time to really be able to have any kind of sustainable conversation that really gets into bitcoin fundamentals or even some broader reasons why having a stake in bitcoin might be a prudent course o f action for them. even if it is a small stake.. even though in the past few years they sometimes seem to be watching the BTC price charts on a more regular basis than they had been historically (unless they are just seeing such BTC price charts on TV sometimes).. and seem to have a tendency to rejoice whenever the BTC price is going down.. apparently they seem to get some thrills out of the BTC price going down.... hahahahaha, to each their own..
But
“frolicking in the sunshine” is irrelevant to that. Diamond hands DGAF—this is fine, and this is even fun.My “frolicking in the sunshine” remark is my attitude towards bear markets—as long as I am not at liquidation risk, which now I am not. It is what I did in previous bear markets, when I had
much more BTC safely in my wallet where it belonged!
1 BTC = 1 BTC. I laugh when the market burns!
Gold had a two-decade extreme bear market. Anyone who bought gold at the wrong time had to wait an awful lot longer than four years to be not underwater. I also think that was a politically motivated economic attack, though I don’t want to get into off-topic discussion here that will derail into other matters. (I have mentioned this in some prior post, a few weeks ago... Something about gold-producing countries under international sanctions.)
Only fools declared gold dead. Smart people bought gold as low as ~$260, not so very long ago.
If we can escape from erroneous thinking about Bitcoin as “like a stock”, and really start treating it as digital gold, then there is ample precedent for shrugging off much worse crashes and bear markets than I now anticipate. As bad as this one is. Even if we are still nowhere near the bottom—maybe; maybe not; I am realistically pessimistic, but not prepared to make a call either way.
1) bitcoin is not gold.. it is likely about 1,000x better than gold.. but still could take 50 to 200 years or more before shown in bitcoin's price relative to gold's price.
2) if you sufficiently understand bitcoin, there is likely little to no need to have gold in your investment portfolio apart from various Armageddon scenarios that have less than a 1% chance of happening. .. so maybe you would have 1% in your portfolio at most.
3) you do what you want in terms of your choice to allocate any resources to gold... it's a free country.
You entirely missed my point there.
Well... at least I made my points.. .. and again we are in a public thread.. so if you are making some obscure and supposedly profound point.. then I give less than two shits.. because your points, to the extent that you have any, seem to be getting lost in terms of why are you even talking about that shitcoin.. aka gold in this here lovely and mostly non-controversial thread?
Oh.. and one last reiteration (and maybe repetition?) point..
I just thought of this.
NOT too many of us WO regulars have been historically sympathetic to anyone coming into the thread who wants the BTC price to stay down in order that they can stack some more BTC.. Most of us give few shits because we are and have been prepared for UP at $60k, $50k, $40k, $30k, and now at $20k .. so there is little or no incentive for those who have already been prepared for up and wearing our moonsuite to get more down to prepare for up because we were already prepared for up at those higher prices, too..
Another thing is that we could give less than two shits if low coiners or no coiners have enough time or money or services to render to stack some sats..
Not much receptivity for any message or request that king daddy allow you or any other low coiner or no coiner more time.. .. you can plea your case of good bitcoin morals and all that mumbo jumbo.. and you are not likely to get much if any sympathy.. including king daddy might decide to go into punishment mode.. which might be good.. but I have my doubts that kind of uppity punishment even being very likely too..
In other words, there has been plenty of time to stack sats.. .. including the last year from the first correction down to $28.6k in May, June, July 2021.. and then now more time to stack sats that has gone on for most of 2022.. with an additional bonus stat stacking opportunity in the past 6 to 8 weeks.. you lucky sat stacking folks.. and if you do not have enough time or money to stack sats, those of us who are overly already prepared for up likely have not too much sympathy..
Sure, there is a bit of a self-interest from yours truly and from other BTC bag holders (not that I am feeling like I am holding bags--- it is just an expression).. ..
Anyhow.. time for UPpity.. even if such UPpity may well have a few more extra challenges and resistance points in the coming months.. and maybe even year.. who knows?
