TA bullish for Bitcoin: Rely on it.
* If you put on your fantasylandia goggles and squint hard, a week and counting almost entirely below 200 WMA, with a non-flash-crash dip of >21% below 200 WMA
and far below the previous 4-year cycle top, means that 200 WMA is the bottom. If the bottom is not yet in, and we soon go down to $15k or $13k or $OH MY GAWD I CAN’T BELIEVE IT, then 200 WMA will still somehow be the bottom.
TA bearish for Bitcoin:[Very beary bearish TA, based on past performance in the alleged Holy 4-Year Cycle.]
Same thing happend in 2018 (when people also used to say that this time its different)
[Oh, noes! We are about to crash even harder!]
or
this time it is differentForget the horoscopes. Back to basics:
What first brought you to Bitcoin?I came to Bitcoin because I have negative past experience with sharp practices by banks. Bitcoin lets me “be my own bank”. Bitcoin lets me engage in productive business that would otherwise be infeasible. Then, Bitcoin lets me store the proceeds exclusively under my own control. Bitcoin is better money. That’s why I first came to Bitcoin.
Well, secondarily that; primarily idealism. But that is a good reason, and more people will understand it.What is
your Bitcoin story? What is the very first thing that originally brought you to Bitcoin? If it involved the words “moon”, “Lambo”, or “number go up”, then you will probably mindrust if you haven’t already.
Bye. If you thought “digital gold”, then you will probably stay—if you really treat it like gold! Goldbugs are long-term thinkers—the
ultimate long-term thinkers—not moonboys.
* “Bitterness” check: I am not bitter at Bitcoin. Never! I love Bitcoin.
I
am bitter at the horoscope labelled “200 WMA”. Because after I had already lost most of my BTC, I backed off to a position of relying on 200 WMA. I didn’t really believe in it as TA; but I
did rationalize it (and have long rationalized it, and explained it to others) as a Schelling point. My theory: Widespread belief in 200 WMA as the bottom (or approximate bottom) would bring a wall of bids to not to miss the opportunity, thus giving unshakeable support—while also driving dumpers to wait for it to recover above 200 WMA, thus drying up the supply of coins for eager bidders at or within about 5% below 200 WMA.
It was under 200 WMA that I lost almost all the BTC then remaining to me.
It was under 200 WMA that I was finally crushed down to less than 0.05 BTC.
It was >20% below 200 WMA that I
finally pulled out all the stops, and made one last drastic sacrifice to get the hell out of debt with my remaining itty-bitty bits of Bitcoin. (The “bright side” was that most of my debt had already been paid off the worst and most expensive way possible, i.e. by liquidations; I was no longer stuck in a position where I had no hope of paying off that debt.)
After I foolishly got myself in a bad situation, and I was
already mostly wrecked, my own neatly rationalized roundabout belief in 200 WMA dealt me the
coup de grace. Well, it was not graceful. 200 WMA royally fucked me.
Good riddance to the myth of 200 WMA as a “bottom”.
