Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 356. (Read 26465014 times)

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Your wish was buddy’s command.

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Not comparing it really to yang and yin situation, but extreme bullishness always creates bearishness and, in reverse, extreme bearishness is bullish.

That said: the simple logic dictates why you should buy when bitcoin is going up and sell when it is going down (preferentially after the peak, of course).
Here it is: when bitcoin is going up, why sell when it could go up another 2-5-10X?
Similarly, when the trend changes and is now down in a major way (after a blow-off top or on a huge volume), then you sell (hopefully at only 10-15% down) and not after waiting until you are down another 50-70% at the end of the bear market.

The only alternative, really, is to never sell...I am following this as much as possible, but sometimes life interferes.

Could also be characterized as a time-based withdrawal.. that happened to have had some decently good price movement in the process, since many of us (but not everyone) here believes that it is a better thing to be selling on the way up rather than selling on the way down.. that is if we have a choice, and the longer that we have been into BTC, then the more likely that we will be able to somewhat structure whatever sales that we make so that they might not be strictly time based, but also might have a selling on the way up kind of element to them.


One dude (trying to) waking up another dude.

Who would-a-thunk?


Look what the cat drug out of the woods.

Nice to see that you are still "kicking and screaming."

I am sure you guys are ahead of me... but I want to pop in to say one thing.

OVER 71K and back under it quickly.

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We might need to see some links to how that CEX quantity of bitcoin is changing through the years before we can say whether 1.8 million is enough to absorb ongoing buying pressures that seem to be coming through a large number of new sources (oh never mind, psycodad seems to have had provided some decent links), including but not limited to the new ETFs that are ongoingly sucking up more of the coins, and seeming to be coming from new rather than existing BTC holders - even though sure there might be some already existing BTC holders converting over to ETFs, I doubt that the quantity of converts is sufficiently offset by the new folks coming into bitcoin and putting additional pressures on whatever actual real bitcoins are available to be absorbed.

Supply shock seems inevitable.. but maybe it ONLY causes a 2x to 3x increase in BTC prices... which I am just talking my own previous assertions of $120k to $180k being a potentially decent consolidation range that could play out for a bit of time.. maybe even a whole year-ish?


6... and 1-5 keeps happening, until it doesn't.


Nothing wrong with that.


Of course, there are all kinds of reasons that people keep some or all of their coins on exchanges, and surely some of the coins are going to be for sale at certain prices, and maybe if the BTC price moves fast in one direction or another coins become available for sale that were not previously available for sale.

I personally believe that the supply shock theory is real.. even though there are always going to be people making more and more coins available as the BTC price goes up, yet the million dollar (bitcoin) question still remains regarding if the quantity of the increase in demand is going to outpace the amount of coins that are ongoingly coming available as the BTC price goes up, and many of us already realize that there are quite a few folks who are pretty modest in their sales of BTC, and sure they will sell some of their BTC, but they are likely not selling them in as grand of quantities as they might do in other asset classes.. so in other words, it seems like many BTC coin holders are more and more informed that it is not a good idea to sell too many of their coins too soon, even if they may well be willing to sell some of them along the way up the price path.


I am not going to claim to know the answer, and my thoughts are that BTC prices have pretty good odds of hitting somewhere between $120k and $180k in 2024, and that the ATH of 2025 will be higher than the ATH of 2024, but surely my own is just a tentative working idea (or my base case) and I doubt that my base case even has higher than 50/50 odds of happening, even though I believe it to be the most likely momentum that I am anticipating at the moment based on current information.. yet as information changes, then so might the base case.

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buddy will do a huge lift tonight maybe 77k



















Or not

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Watched it again on Netflix this evening. Would prefer a Blu Ray, but it is what it is.

Definitely one of my favourite movies of this century.

And probably the only really good monster movie I've seen since Jurassic Park 1.
Everything else has been brainless eye candy in between.

77k works for a break out not a penny less.

This would constitute a good breakout, actually.

Explanation
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Depends on what you guys consider a breakout. But for the last two days there seems to be an overall positive sentiment in the market.



Support is building but it needs a lot of buying power to move the price significantly. I would still consider this some sideways trading.

I started this movie just today, I had to stop to continue later on because the starting was not very catchy to me, but since I am reading this again from someone like you, I will just have to go finish up the movie and see how exceptional the movie is.

Good news about bitcoins, good movie recommendation, good day!

I am 94 minutes into Godzilla minus 1

 Exceptional movie with 31 minutes left.