Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3576. (Read 26652314 times)

Explanation

Explanation

Explanation

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.60023386

This has to be a classic.


 


You seem more outraged than me.


First, I am not going to presume a bear market, yet.. but hey, I denied the 2018 bear market through the whole year all the way down and until the November 2018 capitulation event that brought us from a $6k-ish price that had been tested at least 6 times by the time it broke in mid-November 2018... so at that point, I conceded.

Maybe my failure/refusal to concede will play out again.. ?  until I do end up conceding.. .. I am not sure what the price, but if we get back down into the lower $30ks again, then that would mean that this time we have broken the 100-week moving average.. which currently is at $35k and the 100-week moving average was at about $20k in July 2021, when we ONLY got down to $28,600.... so yeah.. breaking the 100-week moving average and staying below that for a day or two might cause me some worries.. maybe ?  maybe? maybe?

I am having some troubles relating to you regarding your seeming outrage about the pain of another possible bear market... I am pretty much the same as you.  This would be my third.  I started out in one by getting into bitcoin in late 2013, I started out in a bear market, but did not really realize it was a bear market (look - dummy me, again) until late 2014 when the price had come down from $1,163 in December 2013 to reach the $200s in December 2014..and then get stuck in the $200s for the vast majority of 2015.

For me, it seems that each bear market (and even extended corrections) get quite a bit easier.  Sure, every once in a while there can be some stressful times and even feelings of trepidation about whether the bottom is in and when the bottom is going to be in.. .. but still so far each bear market has had way higher lows than the previous one.. so practically speaking if any of us are erroring in on the side of HODLing, then our wealth should be way higher each time.... think about a mostly bottom in the mid $200s in 2015.. and then a bottom of mostly upper $3ks and lower $4ks in late 2018.. and an almost revisiting in 2019 and a brief liquidity event revisiting in March 2020...

It seems almost unimaginable to get anything close to $3k.. sure lower $20ks seem possible.. and sure it could go lower but the odds seem really implausible.. just like the odds of double digits started to become implausible in 2015 and just like the odds of sub $1k seemed implausible in 2018-2020..... so in that regard, if we have been erroring on the side of mostly HODLing.. the golly-gee-whiz, we should have bottoms that are 10x higher on each cycle.. at least so far.. which causes $10k to be nearly implausible.. but we still should have BTC that would still be at least 40x higher than it was in 2015... and shit another 4x after that given even our current $36k-ish prices.. and not even saying that any of the three bear cycle folks should be selling coin at these prices, but if we had to sell coin, those coin would be around 140x more valuable than they were for the vast majority of 2015.

Difficult for me to feel any kind of dread in our current circumstances, even if we might end up entering into a bear market.. and I am not going to concede that we are even in a bear market yet.. even though there are some guys who just love prematurely proclaiming bear markets.. and maybe they just happen to be way smarter than this here reluctant to concede bear market cat.

Explanation

Explanation

People forgotten what war actually is and what it means. Watching through your windows as your neighbor gets executed for no reason with a bullet to the head.  This is real war. Why everyone wasn't flipping their shit in the past wars, I do not know. This, like every war, was caused by the mistakes of inept politicians. But as with every war, at some point people will stop caring so much at what atrocities happen in a country too far away to care about.

DiVERsIfiCATioN Is KEy To MiNiMizINg LoSSeS  

You already know that I don't really agree with your theory about how things are going to end up working out because I believe that you are both being too rigid and also building in a kind of presumption of disappointment regarding our 2021 performance - even though factually you are true.... and you may well end up being correct in regards to how all of this is going to play out between now and 2025-ish... ...

For sure, I am quibbling in terms of degree.. and also quibbling a bit with your waiting to buy.. even though you may well end up being correct about that too.. .hahahahaha ..

It is not like any of us longer term bulls are really wrong, even if we might well get some details wrong along the way, here and there... .. including that mostly HODLing has been a great ass strategy - whether you consider mostly HODLing as 50% HODLing, 75% HODLing or 95% HODLing....

Actually, it seems that even some of the more bearish bitcoiners who engaged something less than 50% HODLing and maybe even ONLY retained something like 25% did pretty damned well for their lil selfies - even if the higher levels of HODLing seem to be closer to the better practices.

One thing that each of us (supposedly adults with decent decision-making capacities) is to attempt to structure in such a way that we feel that we did a pretty damned good job - even if there might well end up being ways that we could have structured some of our actions a bit better, but in the end, we have been doing something close to our best with the information that we have and attempting to include adequate considerations of our emotional status too... in order to end up with decent results because we largely stuck with a plan that we figured out would work within a variety of possible BTC price performance scenarios.. and if our plans have some flexibilities in them they end up with pretty high levels of performance even if NOT perfect performance .. but maybe even something like 80% perfect or something like that  - which ends up being pretty damned good - especially if we are comparing ourselves to various no coiners who ended up getting hardly any of that.. and even the ones that dabbled way too whimpily.. and for sure we have received pay-offs for not dabbling too whimpily -  at least in regards to bitcoin - not sure if we can make those claims to all areas of our lives because there are likely ways that a lot of us guys (and gal) have various other faults in other aspects of our lives.. without necessarily wanting to judge too much.

I am reminded of one more thing.. and no real issues with guys wanting to dabble in luxury items of hookers, lambos and blow, but for sure some kinds of consumption can end up screwing us up in various ways - in terms if there might be some ways that we might be able to help our own health with life style choices, and bitcoin does seem to have a pretty wide-spread ability to incentivizing desires to live longer and to be able to be stronger into old age - but along the way, some of us might have bad luck and even genetics or accidents that end up taking away from our quality of life and our longevity... . even though so many bitcoiner guys talk about life-extension ideas that seem to delve into pie in the sky - including ways that snake oil salesmen can take your money.. and none of us can really know.. the various ways that buying some products or services might actually work rather than being filled with claims of being able to achieve life-extension or reverse negative health conditions. --- in other words, reasons to live longer (partially because of bitcoin) but ability to actually benefit from that extra money may not necessarily materialize as much as we might wish to take place.


Gosh.. it is really difficult to attempt to figure out how much a blow-off top might go.. even if it is a kind of preliminary blow off top.

Of course, guys here likely know some of my failed calls about deadman zone... .. but I have still had some general correctness from time to time too.. such as:

mid to late 2016:  If it goes over $1k don't be fucking selling until at least $2k..

or

late 2017:   If it goes over $10k, we are likely going to get at least 15% out of that all by itself.


or

late 2019 & most of 2020 - if it goes meaningfully above $17,250 we are likely to get at least $24k


So I have also had some level of success.. but I also get a bit scared about getting into specifics, even though my December 6, 2021 numbers and timeline are pretty specific, and I doubt that I have too many reasons to get outside of that kind of framework, even if the actual numbers and the timeline have to be updated to account for what has actually happened (in reality) since December 6.

Explanation

Nice little reminder.

Remember PlanB had proclaimed that the Stock to Flow model suggested an average of $100k for the whole period.. which logically means that the 200-week moving average should end up at that prognosticated price level by the end of the whole 4-year period.

I know people are tending to be so damned bummed out in regards to our being supposedly way behind schedule, and it does seem that we are likely beyond schedule, but it also seems to me that each of the last two years, we have had right around a doubling of the 200-week moving average, so if we are able to get a doubling of the 200-week moving average in the next two years, which surely does not seem completely impossible  that would end up putting the BTC price ONLY 13% below the $100k projections... **note: technically the 208-week moving average might be more accurate - and it runs a bit lower than the 200-week moving average if we are referring to a 4 year average, but the 200-week moving average is close enough for these kinds of estimating/projection purposes.

Too pie in the sky?  I am not sure.

Look at this possible projection of the 200-week moving average price.

Current 200-week moving average price                                 =  $21,700

May 2023   - 2x in the 200-WMA from previous year                =   $43,400

May 2024   - another 2x in the 200-WMA from previous year    =   $86,800

I don't consider the stock to flow model to be even close to total rubbish in terms of giving us both directional ideas and even magnitude ideas (even if some adjustments may well be needed to be made to account for how actual facts might not ended up lining up exactly with projections).  

Of course, I had previously mentioned the 100-week moving average to be a great measurement for where we are at half-way through the halvening period, and right now the 100-week moving average is at nearly $35k.  **note: again I believe that the 104-week moving average might be more accurate, but the 100-week moving average is more commonly used, and the link I cited below might be using something closer to the 104-week moving average rather than the 100-week

You can find the historical 200-week moving averages here

You can find the historical 100-week moving averages here

Explanation

As per Guardian, they talk indirectly via Israel premier now.
Maybe too little too late, maybe not.

The 30K-60K bitcoin range is holding, but no expected bounce to 50K so far, a bummer.

Think its fair to say, extremely fair to say that, in Ukraine right now, Both Russians and Ukrainians are doing some retarded, awful, insane, horrific shit to each other, to themselves, and to anyone that happens to be in their path.

That is what happens in a war, including, especially even, the wars we , the west, have started.....


It is not candy and picnics and puppies.


It is not a game to be cheerlead by anyone, and especially not fucking media cunts on any side.


Whole thing is a disaster, from every angle, every vantage point for Ukraine, for Russia, for both of their peoples and their children, and so it also is for the rest of the world.... just wait until those energy and food price hikes really kick in in 6-9 months or so....


....and that is just assuming things do not escalate.


It is a fuckin shit show.





 

 

Ok..


stick with your convictions.







Double down.




No problem.


I did send you an smerit... this time because you did provide a link to the source , and it is somewhat topical here because really the jist of the news is that such Bentley University is accepting Bitcoin and two shitcoins... (Ethereum and USDC)... or perhaps it could be described as accepting Bitcoin, one shitcoin scam and one shitcoin stable coin (that for now is pegged to the shitcoin called the US Dollar) -

You also did fuck up by failing/refusing to downsize the image.. - which I did in this post (and you can see in the HTML underlying source) and which I will might cut you a few breaks in this regard.. but such persistence in failing/refusing to downsize images starts to seem purposeful, lazy and can make the difference in terms of whether your posting style is considered sufficiently contributory to the thread  or not - and surely other members share such sentiments that newbies who are merely posting links to outside information without commentary should get into the fairly straight-forward practice of image-downsizing** might not deserve any love if they do not seem to be trying hard enough... I personally get more ting-a-lees from member comments and clarification within the posting.. but sometimes I will still send smerits to such seemingly smerit-whoring posts because I appreciate being able to find those kinds of various news-item pieces in this thread without my having to search for them in locations outside of this thread - the more related to bitcoin the better too.

** By the way, regarding the alleged imposition of chartbuddy on usability of this thread, seems like a big so fucking what to me.  Yeah, chartbuddy might seem less repetitive during times that more posts are made on the thread, yet it hardly seems imposing to for me to find whole thread pages with more that 10 chartbuddies contained therein (note there are 20 posts per page in forum threads).... and yeah, lots of chartbuddies surely does show the lack of thread activity - but it also shows what the BTC price was during each of those hours too.. and also could end up easily showing a reference to the BTC price at the time of any particular post that ends up talking about Bitcoin price dynamics - or lack thereof.. and many times, members do not mention what the BTC price was at the time of their post - including yours truly - even though I do sometimes still want to say what the BTC price is at the time of my post... especially if I am trying to talk about where this price has been or where it might be going.

One more point in respect to possibly talking about stable coins or talking about the dollar - there surely is a difference - but there surely also can be not much material difference if we might be referring to some stable coin in terms of short-term BTC price movements, and we do not necessarily proclaim that the dollar is not relevant in this here thread because we are still centrally valuing bitcoin in terms of dollars - which we are likely going to continue to be doing for a decently long period of time - 20 years or more... but surely it seems that we are going to continue to experience ongoing increasing skepticisms regarding the various ways that various shitty fiats are devaluing around the world even more than the dollar (which continues to be relevant to various ways that we measure our level of get richie status.. which there are a lot of relevance in terms of get richie status as a topic, especially if we are somehow trying to relate such topic towards bitcoin's likely ongoing role in that whether aspirational or just maintaining or liquidating from such), and in any event, there remains ongoing likely propping up of the dollar that continues to come from such sources of other fiats struggling more than than the dollar and therefore contributing towards dollar life support outcomes - even if their varying failures were not intended to contribute towards such outcomes.  



Hahahahaha

Exactly.

Can you imagine some kind of attempt to make it more social justice friendly... .. or actually to consider that bitcoin has become something else.


On the other hand.. for sure there may well be some day in which we might well be asking about what exactly is the dollar again?  which through the years of this thread some folks have already been asking that question increasingly.. hhahahaha.. .. but yeah, who knows ... we are getting close to 10 years of this thread.. and will it still be alive in 10 or 20 years from now?  will it just be 18 chartbuddies per page.. with one or two old timers - who still have not gone to that reprogramming place in the sky, making their post per week or post per month.. and scraggler WO OGs coming back and posting from time to time..

 

At least this is supposedly from the horses mouth......... though I would not be surprised if this is bullshit too tbh.... could be legit, but could not be

Who is "they" ?

Is it a bunch of journalists/news presenters ?

Can't trust journalists, or news presenters, especially ones from a country at war....neither Russian, Ukrainian, American, British etc etc


They are just filling their airwaves with wall to wall waffle, struggling to find shit to say, in their own propaganda push.... not surprising.


Doubt putin is getting updates about the "black magic risk"




 

Explanation