Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3690. (Read 26731551 times)

Explanation

Explanation

Of course, no coiners and low coiners are going to want to accumulate more BTC.

You are not saying anything inconsistent with what I have already said many times.. I know from experience and you are largely preaching to the choir in that regard.

In other words, I am surely not going to hate on BTC accumulators or their motives, and likely quite a bit of the content of my earlier post was assuming a decent amount of accumulation had already happened... such as pre-September 2020 accumulation and largely BTC accumulated with averages less than $10k per BTC.

I might even be understating the case, because even any kind of normie who got into BTC right around September 2020 and might have even attempted to engage in relatively aggressive BTC accumulation, may well NOT have even had a sufficient amount of time to engage in sufficient/adequate BTC accumulation... so I surely understand the likely advantages of investing in BTC in a declining price situation, and several times I have asserted that a whole cycle might not even be enough to really get a decent BTC stash going.

For sure, we cannot know what BTC prices are going to do, but there are likely a lot of ways that advantages come to bitcoin newbies and even anyone investing into BTC less than a full cycle (unless they really had done a pre-September 2020 lump sum investment into BTC of 10% to 30% of their investment portfolio - presuming a significantly established investment portfolio).

For sure, I have seen bitcoin accumulators with short timelines into BTC cheering for the BTC price to go shooting up currently, when largely they have not established much if any kind of bitcoin investment stake... so for sure some relative newbies into bitcoin striving to be somewhat aggressive by even putting $100 to $200 per week into bitcoin will likely get a decent amount of benefit from a dip like this and even if such dip ends up lingering for a long time - even 1 year or 2 years.

Just a reminder that my personal position in bitcoin was clearly negative for more than my first 2 years, and then ambiguous for nearly another year after the first 2 years and really did not start to feel comfortably profitable until after 3 years had passed - and even though there were various challenges to the profitable level of my BTC holdings after having more than 3 years into it, there was a decent amount of cushion to provide comfort - and surely we cannot really know if history is going to allow current accumulators to achieve those kinds of similar levels of psychological and financial comforts/cushions - which also so far in bitcoin's history - there have been guys who have suffered doubts in bitcoin at various times, but the HODLers and persistent ongoing (and sometimes aggressive) BTC accumulators profited through bitcoin's history - those guys who mostly held onto the coins that they accumulated and engaged in various ongoing ways to continue to accumulate coins by ongoing buying of coins (DCA, buying on dips, lump sum investing).. I am not referring to engaging in BTC accumulation methods that involve selling BTC and trying to buy back cheaper.. because those guys did not necessarily perform as well unless they got lucky and learned to stop engaging in those kinds of behaviors (or at least minimizing them to very small portions of the value of their BTC holdings - such as less than 10%).

Explanation

I mean, if we're being 100% perfectly honest...

I mean, YOU asked...

(24 months of averaging down from my $31.5k cost average with weekly buys??? Hmm... OK!)

Pro Tip: Careful asking questions you might not want to hear the answer.

Part of the rationale to mostly focus on Stamp prices is so that we are not going to be going out there and finding all the various extremes and quirks and representing them as if they are some kind of reflection of fair BTC prices.   Sure, sometimes there will be important points that can be made in regards to exchange variance or arbitrage opportunities, yet during extreme price movement periods, it's not very unusual to have a decent amount of variance and even extremes in some of the smaller exchanges.. even dips or spikes that look like a fat finger may have been in the explanatory picture.


You know that you want to say it.

Go on.


Say it.

I already mentioned nullius.. but there is still something different.

You may as well say yours, too.

Go on.

Explanation

I believe so. It's just not been enough to be worth the hassle.

Explanation

I would not phrase it like that, but hey maybe I am too long.

I have buy orders that go down to just slightly below $20k- but then at that time, I run out of fiat that has been dedicated to buy on the way down.. Don't get me wrong, I still have some fiat, but I already had been planning to use that for hookers lambos and blow, so in a variety of senses, I have to curtail my consumption and furthermore, I have already plugged a decent amount of extra cash in order to continue to buy on the way down (so if the BTC price goes down I am buying more BTC  than I had originally planned).

I would have felt way better for the 100-week moving average to have not to have been broken.. and sure, we might be able to get some kind of quick recovery - but just consider the way FUD and even hard attacks like to fall.. so we have a variety of liquidations taking place on bitcoin - that seem ridiculous for people to be selling so low, but then strategically, there are micro-actors who can either engage in more attacks on bitcoin through language and through dumping of fiat and various shorting instruments - sure they might not be successful.. but it could still take a while to unwind or even for bitcoin to bounce back..

Anyone want 2 years waiting for the BTC price to go back above the 100 week moving average - I am not saying that it is going to happen... but I am not so insulated as to either not giving any fucks or to even appreciate that bitcoin is going to be resilient no matter what, even if shit really goes bad in various macro-segments. 

Even if the BTC holdings of some of the longer-term bitcoiners may well still be up 30x or even 100x, there's gotta be some level of discomfort, no?


You have a pretty strong need to frame matters as if you had been right. 

Ultimately, I doubt that there really is any absolute objective right or wrong, but likely the extent to which any of us might be invested in a way that aligns with our individual circumstances.. and do I need to list the factors that need to be accounted, again?

Even if many of us have been practicing for years, the balancing of factors remains an ongoing and continuous challenge - probability y more likely during times of high volatility and high uncertainty - and even if you are gloating because you are even implying a bounce, here - as if you can cash out all your chips, do a mic drop and ride out into the sunset - gloating the whole way in regards to how you are better than everyone else.

hahahahaha

imagine that--- probably not even a pretty sight... since you still have your personality that you are taking with you...

 

Let's try to have a bit more balance, no?

Accordingly, since we do not know the future inevitably there are going to be trade-offs, and no real way to really get perfect outcomes or even something in which we would be able to say that "I was right" because there are quite a few variations, and even our particular current correction is not over yet, so it seems way too soon to be proclaiming being "right" even if maybe you might have made a BIG bet in this particular direction.

Your seemingly desire to be "right" causes me to wonder if you are even being honest in terms of your representations... but, hey you do you.

Explanation

I think this weekend (low liquidity) will be very telling of the current state of the market. Last weekend was non-stop downwards, if we get sideways or even up maybe most of the panic and weak hands have probably been purged from the system.

Explanation

2 days till the Full Moon.    ... Still waiting on that 70% capitalization.   

You got that wrong.
It's zeros, not zero!
At the time we have four of them:

Explanation

CANCER !!! CANCER !!! ... YOU WILL ALL GET CANCER !!!              [/size]


BTCiTcoiN IS GOING TO ZYEROOOOWOW!!

Explanation

Great news there, cap'n 
Bitcoin, once again, feels a bit moar awesome to me now.

Idea:
How much do we have to spend to rename ETHan to BTCan (pronounced "Bitcoinan")?
If he'd be asked about the meaning of his name, he could reply Bitcoin saved his life 
Also, he would get rid of the Shitcoin-part of his current name.

Even if i initially meant this as a joke, the longer i was actually typing it, i got more and more to think it has something to it...

Because he's always wrong 
However, I would appreciate an exception to that rule this time...