Intel Launches New Bitcoin Mining Chips Focused on Sustainability
That doesn't make sense. If efficient chips are cheap, miners will just buy more of them and consume more energy.
If the chips are expensive, I bet producing them costs a lot of energy. One way or another, the sum of money spent on hardware and electricity will depend on how much money there is to be made mining.
Going from 27.5 or 31 J/TH to 26 J/TH doesn't really do much for sustainability anyway.
It is a closed-loop, energy-conserved system. If Intel releases mining chips that are more efficient (i.e., consume less energy per terahash) than conventional chips, miners will simply buy more such chips to make use of the resulting energy surplus. Difficulty will increase, reaching a new equilibrium, where the total energy used will get back to where it was before Intel's chips. The only way to limit energy usage is by legislation, i.e. somehow making it illegal to exceed an upper energy threshold when mining Bitcoin, effectively putting a cap on Bitcoin's price. As long as miners are allowed to use all energy available to them for mining, they
will (and Bitcoin's price will increase accordingly). Whether that energy is powering GPUs or ASICs is irrelevant.
The reason Bitcoin mining uses more energy now than 10 years ago is not because of ASICs or new technology. It's simply because 10 years ago miners didn't care so much about Bitcoin and thus did not
want to use a lot of energy. That's why price was so low then and is so high now. The more energy the network uses, the higher Bitcoin's value becomes. Limiting energy used for mining is equivalent to limiting Bitcoin price from increasing.
It's called Proof of Work for a reason. It's all about energy transfer. Electrical energy to "monetary" energy (value), and, according to the 1st law of thermodynamics, energy is conserved. Limit one, and you limit the other.
In several ways, I agree with points that you are making, but several of your points are phrased in ways that are confusing to me, because even though I consider incentives behind bitcoin mining to be a kind of moving dynamic – that will adjust to changes in technology, BTC price legislative factors and other factors such as number of other miners, I still find some of your explanation to be problematic because I cannot really tell if you are suggesting that miners are responding to BTC price or causing the BTC price to change, and also the part about legislators being able to control aspects of mining seems to be playing into what they want to do, but not so much describing what they are able to accomplish.
Of course, I am not going to be saying anything that you do not know, but one of the interesting dynamics of bitcoin is that it both assumes selfish behavior and it assumes bad actors, so in some sense bitcoin has some abilities to adjust to bad actors – including the difficulty adjustment, but also if legislators/governments put impediments onto bitcoin, then the mining and perhaps even use cases for bitcoin will likely move to less hostile jurisdictions, so part of the dynamics of having value imbedded into the coin would be that to engage in certain kinds of attacks against the network, the attacker has to engage in behavior that attacks himself….so I am bothered about whether that is fairly described as a “closed loop” or a self correction mechanism that you seem to be hinting at.. and for sure the dynamics are going to change and move in accordance with where some of the attacks might be made – and hopefully be able to survive in the end… so yeah, merely having a stake in the system is not enough to control the system, either… and maybe I am just bothered by a kind of seeming assumption that legislators might be able to be successful without having to gain widespread control in a variety of jurisdictions – which seems really difficult to achieve because some legislators are already getting on the bitcoin train and are likely to continue to get on the bitcoin train rather than attacking it (if they know what is for their own good)….
But one thing about bitcoin is that there is no coercion… Legislators, financial institutions, status quo rich, can each decide whether to jump on the bitcoin train, fight against bitcoin or to remain neutral, and with the passage of time, we will find out how their decisions are playing out, and even if they do not jump on board in 2014, or in 2018 or in 2021 or in 2025, there is nothing stopping them from jumping on board later, even if the train has gone further up the hill and they might have to jump on the more luxury version rather than the previously clunky version.
Yes, I see your points, and sure, things can get very complicated when trying to understand the inner workings and dynamic processes of the Bitcoin network, as it interacts with human behavior and responds to adoption, attacks, legislations, environmental concerns, bans, etc. As I have stated numerous times here in WO, I believe no one can really predict Bitcoin's short-term behavior, which is the reason why I completely disregard all posts trying to find patterns in charts whose
t-axis is shorter than 4 years (the 200-Week Moving Average indicator horizon).
In my energy conservation analysis
quoted above, I'm taking a simplistic (yet valid, IMHO) approach, treating Bitcoin as a black box, with energy going in, and value coming out. Simply put, the less energy (i.e., cheaper mining) you put in, the less value is going to be generated. I suppose this is yet another confirmation that "there is no free lunch" in this universe. An equilibrium must be maintained.
Legally limiting the cost (energy) of mining is not the way to go, it will inevitably hurt Bitcoin's value, and I'm not even sure it can be practically enforced. What can, perhaps, be done,
as philipma1957 has pointed out, is to tax dirty energy and encourage clean energy use for mining. But you can be sure that the energy used (clean or dirty) will still be very, VERY expensive, and will get even more expensive as Bitcoin adoption soars in the future. And rightly so. It shouldn't be easy or cheap to generate Bitcoin. It's a precious thing!