Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3872. (Read 26712886 times)

Broke Oligarch
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-03-17/broke-russian-oligarch-fridman-says-sanctioned-billionaires-can-t-sway-putin

By Asia you mean China? Right?

Explanation

Is see many tweets etc
People trying to smuggle fiat, gold etc getting arrested….
BTC would be such a handy tool for many people this moment….

Explanation

America is still sleeping and Europe is just waking up, it's just 08:30 where I live, and Asia isn't even posting in this thread.

3 Hours Passed and No post in the WO Thread 

Surprising. What's happening, guys?
I know the sphere becomes silent before the Storm.

Explanation

Explanation

Explanation

Of course, I rely less on the various technical analysis lines.. and largely we have already had a couple of more than 50% corrections this year.. and our blow off top might be described 7x at best.. so in some sense, it seems to me that buy support would have had opportunities to catch up to current prices.. and even a dip down to $20k I would suggest as having 10% or lower odds.. and of course the odds of dipping below $30k would be quite a bit higher.. maybe even in the 50% arena.

There are various ongoing developments in bitcoin that may well cause scenarios like 2014 to be way less likely to play out.. I mean we were stuck at $400 for a while and then get stuck in the mid to lower $200s for almost the whole of 2015.. similarly when people suggest that we could get something like 2018 where we dipped from $6k to $3k.. but then we were only in the $3ks for about 4 months.. until that April to June 2019 BTC price surge (temporary as it was, it ended our bearslump quite decisively).

So currently going down to any such lower price and then being able to stay there would likely take some pretty extreme circumstances.. and probably there would be some need to get to lower $30ks first and to potentially challenge buy supprt in the lower $30ks.. and there seems to be trouble getting down there.. at least so far....


Let me see if I understand what you are saying in the above bolded part.

You are suggesting that currently we have around 100 million bitcoin users, and in the next 4-5 years we are largely going to 10x our number of users.. which of course has inevitable UPpity pressures on the BTC price, right?  I would also suggest if you assess our current number of bitcoiners as 100 million, it seems that a lot of those current 100 million are likely quite under-invested in bitcoin, and so even with the first 100 million (if that is about the right number), there still remains quite a bit of room for growth within those already existing bitcoin users.

Regarding whether the stock to flow model is "on-track" of course there is ongoing plotting of the data.. and surely some folks will find such model useful and others will not, and I really doubt that the extent to which the model is valid, useful or informative regarding likely BTC direction would be subject to a popularity contest - even though you likely already realize that I am not too patient with guys who seem to completely ignore such model and spin their own models that seems to be based on loose data at best and.. which seem to be like throwing darts at a board.


$70k is noise..  For the most part, we have already been there twice.


You might be phrasing matters weirdly based on English as a second language or using a translator (google translator?)  but your describing the "owner of the blockchain/bitcoin" is a weird framework - especially since bitcoin seems to be amongst the least owned of systems.. and bitcoin's lack of ownership seems to be its appeal... and I am not sure why you want to use the word bitcoin and blockchain in the same sentence.. there is no need to talk about blockchain at all, unless you are wanting to suggest that there are some other systems that matter, besides bitcoin.. are you referring to that, or you just did not feel comfortable with ONLY using the word bitcoin when you were referring to bitcoin, right?  In other words, the concept of blockchain is kind of meaningless because it leads into ambiguity and maybe even causes questions about whether you are talking about bitcoin or something else?

I agree, bro, maybe more than 4 years in the future will approach that price, past $70000/unit, and there should be no worries for me to take the price that is rising. What @cAPSLOCK said also made people ask questions ask, it's not too bad and not too low from the years before bitcoin/cryptocurency soared so worshiped. I believe the owner of the blockchain (btc) will have a surprise for the survival of the community, I'm sure it will be fine, this hypothesis makes sense bro

Yea, sure, albeit he was saying before that we should judge his hypothesis by an earlier time point than 2024.
I am not sure what would be a falsification mechanism for his hypothesis? Looking back from 2025?
Frankly, i don't even care much anymore and people seem to move on too.

To me, we are transitioning out of the large influence of the four your cycles and, hopefully, switching on to a supercycle of usage (changing that param from 100mil to 1bil) in the next 4-5 years.
The price should follow at least at the early and mid stage of the 'hockey stick'.

I tried to do a quick look at the DCA website to attempt to figure out what your average cost per BTC would have been with a strict DCA strategy, and I find it a bit confusing... even though it does show that a strict DCA'ing would be in 20% profits.. but the numbers still do not seem to add up - something like $1k per week would put you at 0.858 BTC with $42k invested...  ..we can still use it as a ballpark, even though the website is showing the wrong current BTC price (and it has done that many times before, too).

Ultimately, I don't have any problem if you believe that you can attempt to employ more sophisticated strategies to attempt to beat a strict DCA strategy - nothing wrong with that... My main problem comes when guys try to suggest that whatever they are doing might be replicable to consistently beat a strict DCA strategy.. and frequently that is not the case.. frequently there is some special techniques or even luck involved that normies might not easily be able to deploy without increasing their odds of putting themselves in a worse situation.


 Of course you are in the best position to know your particulars and whether you are being sufficiently aggressive or maybe just too anxious.  Wealth accumulation can take a whole long time - and even if you are not able to ever get up to 1 bitcoin, that still may well put you ahead of your peers..

For sure, when I came into bitcoin, I set myself a kind of ambitious accumulation target, but I was also starting out with more than 20 years of prior investment portfolio accumulation.. so that causes a quite different set of circumstances.. and I suppose my main point is that initially I thought that I might not ever reach my goal.. and I did end up reaching such goal in about 6-8 months.. mostly due to the BTC's price dropping.. but even my reaching the goal did not solve any profitability issues, because after I reached my goal, the BTC price kept dropping.. so I ended up getting way beyond my initial goal, and having to set new ones... and of course, the longer that you are in, it seems that you might not be playing around with large portions of your stash.. even though I do know that opinions vary, so some long time bitcoiners do play around with decently large portions of their stash... but not as many who really are concerned about long term investing that is 4-10 years or even longer than 10 years which would not be unusual for someone who is earlier in his/her investment career.



Balancing of the budget is a great thing... Surely you know that sometimes you can take some chances, but also there are needs to have back up plans too.. and the mere fact that you have a lower $30ks balance and you are in profits, you seem to be in a better position than I was 1 year after I had gotten into bitcoin, and even took me around 2.5 years to start to feel that I was in break even and low profits.. .. and of course, things did get better from there.. referring to late 2016 and thereafter.

You probably already know the saying about the need to go through a whole cycle.. but then again, questions about "what is a cycle" have been rearing their ugly heads in recent times, too... I would imagine that you should be in a good position in less than 3 years, and whether or not you need a whole coin might not really matter so much as jmust having an investment level that is suitable and workable for you.... We still are in the place where a 0.21 BTC initial bitcoin investment target would not necessarily be a bad thing for any bitcoin newbies.. and you realize too that there are so many people who are still not in bitcoin, so I would imagine 3-4 years from now, realistic newbie entry-level accumulation targets might have to add a zero onto that and maybe shoot for 0.021 BTC or 2.1 million sats.  Sure... speculation.. and if you do not screw up then you should be multiples higher than those entry levels.. and also many of us look back and we see that we would not have been able to accumulate the number of coins that we currently have under almost any circumstances - absent winning the lottery or some lame unlikely event like that.... for sure, whole coiners are already rare and likely to become even more rare... especially for normies.... or is the word plebs?


A little hopium never killed no one, right?

 

Explanation

Am I the only one who still thinks PlanB's model is not only a still not invalidated, but indeed the longer we go below the line this cycle the more likely we spring up even higher to compensate during the current epoch?  (Not saying we Will... But if we do...)

I think many folks latched onto his somewhat conservative 100k by 12\21 prediction and when that didnt come true they declared his whole theory invalid.

But it isn't.  Yet.

I don't even really subscribe to the model, and think it nearly certainly is invalidated in time.

But it simply is not yet.  If we rocket deep into 6 figures I wonder if people will admit they were wrong as quickly as they jumped to accuse him of that.

We may get to see!    

Nice touch at the end, hinting at a future "final solution" for the "traitors". The upcoming Steven Spielberg movie is going to be insane. Igor's List.

Double posted for some reason so I guess I'll ramble on...

Finally did my 2021 taxes this week! Been procrastinating like hell, because I was afraid Uncle Sammy was gonna bend me over and rip me raw with no KY to C me through...
Turns out, by FIFO accounting, my random method of buying high selling low and then buying back low to sell back barely profiting worked out nicely! $15k+ of total 2021 transactions coming in at a $270 loss! (Woohoo! Still holding more than I put in but Uncle Sam will have to wait for his cut!)

Buying my weekly DCA religiously, and still in the green! (Current Cost Average $31,756, don't ask, you don't wanna talk about it) But I freely admit, it's accumilating too slow!!! At this rate I may never reach 1 whole coin! So everytime we dippedy-do down below  $39k there I am bruising my dirty knees saying, "Please Baby, the Corn's so cheap!?! I don't have to eat dinner tonight, right???" Of course, being the smart woman she is, she says no as much as she says yes... bet then goes and blows the money on senseless things like dental appointments and electric bills!!! Oh well, guess there's worse things to fight about.