”BTC is a risk-on safehaven.
Gold is a risk-off safehaven.
Bitcoin as an untested theoretical safehaven, this year will be the first proper market test of it.
In a war time scenario, risk-off is the first market response, the second market response is towards safehavens.”
"Willy Woo"
It surely is time for Bitcoin to be finally tested for real. The 2008 crisis was too early for Bitcoin to show what it can do. But if Bitcoin gets at the end of the day to NOT be a safehaven anymore, is it bad? I would not say so. It can still do exactly what it does right now, just the average human's perspective changes.
In a post-nuclear world in which food has become a diminishing good due to the fact that nothing is growing anymore, your shiny metals and internet money won't be worth a slice of bread. Lets be clear about that. This isn't 1942 anymore.
I kind of get it but I also do not. If you are the survivor of a post-nuclear world, then what are the actual chances you get to meet another survivor? In that kind of world, not even seeds, banknotes or coffee is helpful anymore.
If you do get to meet another survivor who is interested in barter, then you can assume they are in need of equipment, in need of food or they have enough food and equipment and want wealth. I just know there would be some who would look after wealth. I can only imagine some dreaming about the world they could build with all the wealth they can get by taking advantage of other survivors. Particularly today's upper class, which can today afford building an anti nuclear bunker to shelter entire families for decades long.
In the last case I have mentioned, even Bitcoin is helpful as long as there still is a way to transact. If and when Internet becomes a thing again, Bitcoin will still offer us the utility of a censorship resistant currency. In fact, Bitcoin may be able to preserve its utility way better than Gold does. Gold is useful today, but in a post nuclear world I doubt it will be used in industry. I mean, is there even going to be an industry after nuclear Apocalypse? But still, Gold would be useful too. Maybe nuclear is not the end of life on Earth after all, and Gold still is one of the rarest metals even after such a catastrophe. Maybe even rarer when you know there is no mining company doing the mining anymore. But maybe then all assets become rare. And then, look at Bitcoin. Does it look like all these insane bull runs have a particular sense attached to it? Besides demand and limited supply, but even then Bitcoin still is an asset with bull run cycles like few to no other assets ever had.
Edit. Maybe Bitcoin's crazy bull runs make sense if I think about halving and the cost of mining. Cost of flour increases when the cost of production does, right?
Sometimes things do not need to make sense to work. GME and other assets pumping like crazy is one example. Who the hell actually thinks assets trending in tremendous hype are worth investing into? They only make you poorer most of the time. Bitcoin never really sat in so much good main stream lighting before. Or at least I have never seen it happening. Yet it turned out to be one of the best ways to preserve value, earn money and stay away from dirty Fiat.
A post-nuclear world is hard to imagine anyway. There is just too much stuff that is so hard to predict even if we think we can do it. But one thing is for sure, there is greed even during war. Even during the Apocalypse. There will always be greedy humans and in a post nuclear world it is not an exception.
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Regards,
PrivacyG