Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4108. (Read 26711388 times)

I think that there had been a decent amount of concern that Russia had been getting some amount of pressure to go along with China's seeming approach to the matter, and of course, having a decent amount of variance from China does tend to show that Russia is thinking about the bitcoin and mining matter differently from China - even though both of those countries have a pretty long and strong track record of flip flopping on the topic of bitcoin in strong and seemingly ongoing contradictory ways...

Some variation of the Byzantine general's problem playing out in front of us, no?... there is a certain amount of inability to trust various adversaries... but then even  when the adversaries engage in various maneuvers to cheat, they might end up hurting themselves, but they do not really hurt bitcoin in any kind of meaningful or substantial way.  Bitcoin chugs along and kind of expects the various players to engage in maneuvers that are hostile and contradictory to other players.. and in the end.. each player has to choose whether to play or to sit it out.. and in this case, the opposite of Wargames, the ONLY winning move is actually to play, if you choose not to play, you are going to find yourself in a much worse place 4-10 years down the road (even if you might not be able to recognize your worser position while you are developing it by not playing).

This is most certainly true!  In fact, I think it is fairly common to COMPLETELY twist what we want to believe with what we think will happen.  In the area of markets, this is one thing all the prophets I admire have in common.  That they know how to separate their emotions from their view of reality.  The tendency to conflate ones wishes and fears with ones beliefs is a thing folks MUST overcome to be successful.  And it can be expressed negatively and positively.

For example.  I think a common mistake people MIGHT be making right now is based in a fear of repeating the last 4 years (again).  My conversation with LFC is in this area.  Although I think his belief has a rational basis I am also aware that the adherance of this belief may be because of fear.  Just as the rejection of this belief may be because of a bias to bullishness.

Around here we all know that it is possible to let our fears/hopes get the better of us.  Mindrust is often cited.  And people have bet the whole farm (or at least a BIG BARN) on an alt with a narrative that resonates for them and lost nearly everything as well.  A couple famous WO members come to mind here, but I will refrain from naming them out of respect.

So far as the current circumstances go?  I am having a hard time separating the likely scenarios from the ones I want (or am afraid of).  We are currently at a real crossroads, in a sense.  Hanging out right above making a new low.  And this "cycle" has already been different in that it had a double top.  Not two peaks, but a second peak just a little above the first.  That is unique.  If we are to fall from here, then we will never have really had the typical "blow off top".  I personally think an 80% decline is hard to imagine in the absence of a blow off top.  But who knows?

The positive scenario is we either make a higher low, or we spike lower but still bounce.  Then we make a third top.  I also think it would make sense for the market to continue to oscillate at a higher frequency and smaller bandwidth.  Shorter waves without blow offs and winters.  +175% -45% and so on biased to the upside.  Perhaps there are still some halfing related effects, but I expect them to reduce.

The above is where my money is. 

Is it what I *want* to happen?  Well sort of, yes.  I would not mind the crazy moon rocket too, but I also would not miss the winters.

Is it what logic and reason makes me think is going to happen avoiding emotion?  Sort of, yes.  I do think it is a narrative that actually MAKES SENSE. And could be the way things unfold.

Do I feel strongly about it?  No.

But here's to trains rockets and Carolina for us all... one way or the other.

Let's stick with your current prediction.. who gives any shits about your past.

Right now, you are saying that there are high odds that the BTC price needs to meet the 200 Week moving average before it will be able to move up, and you are saying that such meeting of spot price and the 200-week moving average may well take a few months to play out.   So you are largely saying that we have good odds of reaching $24k within 3-6 months. How confident are you?  Are you confident enough to place a bet?  Does not have to be for a large amount and we can get some mutually agreeable member to escrow it... we just have to figure out the terms.. maybe the parameters?  Maybe you would say $24k before $46k?  or something like that?  Of course, we could pick different price points and timelines that might help to align with confidence levels.  You talk like you have a lot of confidence in 24K.. something like quite a bit more than 80%?   Am I reading you wrong?  Are you not that confident? 

By the way, many guys run away like scared little rabbits when they actually have to back up their outrageous claims with any kind of bet that would attempt to capture their outrageous claims within the terms of a bet (and for sure it does not even have to be large amounts.. (10k to 500k satoshis could sufficiently be in the ballpark of establishing bet terms).. You have already run away or avoided or ignored bet terms at least once, so I doubt that you are even close to actually wanting to back up your claims with some kind of skin in the game and you are likely going to walk back your supposed level of confidence... while you are supposedly learning and pumping out various kinds of pie in the sky theoretical bullshit for quite a few months.. while you are supposedly "learning."

so... you mean boyfriends?   

Explanation

Maybe we all mix predictions with what we want?   I still think that it is better to frame a prediction in terms of what you believe to be more likely to happen.. or even if any of us were to say that there is a 38% chance for x, a 30% chance for y and a 32% chance for z, then after we stated that, we might say, I prefer y.. at least we have framed the probabilities before stating the preference, and in that regard, there is a bit less mixing.. or at least you have stated both so we know what is your prediction and what is your preference, no?


That's too bad....,...


I supposed that this year will tells us....whether  bear market like you said.. or an extension of the bull market....

There could be some variations of those theses.. but those two are the main two contending theses currently..

There are some scenarios that could play out more ambiguously that end up NOT making it clear regarding which of the above two dominant theses had been the winner....

Personally, I have the sense that it is more likely that this will resolve itself.. and likely be known in 4-6 months at the latest...... and, even though I am more inclined to conjecture that an extension of the bull market is going to play out.. I am not going out and taking out debt to bet on what I believe to be the most-likely of outcomes for this calendar year.... at least not currently... 

(by the way, admittedly, my strategy is somewhat front-loaded anyhow, so it's not like I would change in the midst of some ideas that I already had most of last year... so admittedly there is a bit of locking in.. as compared to maybe if I might had taken some kind of a BIGGER shavings then I would have already taken that position... so even if my being wrong is playing out in front of my eyes.. it is not as if I can do very much to change what I am doing.. sure there are little things that I could do, but largely my personal strategy does not get changed quickly anyhow)

You’re among my favorite posters Sir.

Now eat merits.

You’re my brother, but you gonna be wrong in this one 

Smart belge poseur

Smart belge poseurs everywhere 

Explanation

It is indeed a large risk.  And with this puppet in office guiding the "free world" I could imagine all sorts of draconian bullshit coming from the west.

But it's already game over.  The next "dancing guy" country is about to show up.

I think this position is EXTREMELY sensible.  If we are re-experiencing a cycle pattern like 2017.  My soul was also stretched to the breaking point between 2018-2020.  But that combined with all the other boom/bust cycles has sort of changed me.  Lol.

But I think there are reasons things might just be "different this time".

1. Bitcoin is now a huge brand.
2. ONE country is using it
3. Several countries (Turkey, Russia, Iran, etc) are looking at it
4. Large publicly traded companies (including the darling tesla) have put it on balance sheets
5. Normie on ramps
6. Brrrrrr
7. Mining is in great shape.
8. Bil/Millionaires want in. 
9. @Jack (just one guy and his co... but this is a super big card in the deck I think...)

People KNOW about it, but still a very small # are IN it.  It can only dip so low before big money comes in to buy.  In fact I guarantee a lot of smart money was edging in between 31k and here just recently. 

I just don't see how a winter lasting to 2025 is even remotely possible.

But a LOT of things could happen...

https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1486683427252445187

I would prefer Llama and Banana shaped trolls rather than getting attacked for trying to do TA

I think your TA is complete BS, but then again...I think all TA is complete BS. So meh.

Also some of us old timers are quite amused when you TA guys follow the completely predictable pattern of predicting much higher highs during a bull run, and insta flipping to predicting much lower lows during a downturn. Such herd mentality.

Makes you wonder, this action by Putin. I wonder if they'll secretly set up huge mining farms using renewable energy. They’ll keep it all under the radar in preparation for the next bull run & onwards. If Putin is on board it means Russia will be big players in the future of bitcoin.

On the subject of doomsday TA, at least ImThour puts some effort into it unlike some llama-shaped trolls here.

But in reality Bitcoin will go either up or down, and the only certainty is that obviously there is a lot more room to go up than down. Unless you're playing with some stupid option spreads, which you really shouldn't.

With putin's backing, it's as good as done

With current political climate I don't know this is something to be thankful for

Jokes aside Putin blocked Russian ban on mining: https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1486721299091050496?cxt=HHwWgMCihaDJ8qEpAAAA

Indeed regardless the side we are on with predictions we as a whole want Bitcoin to succeed in the long term yet we can have difference of opinion while still being civil