Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4110. (Read 26711447 times)

https://twitter.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1486669010871664643?s=21

I don't know if you are just trying to find patterns to fit your narrative that we are in a bear market. You tried to sell it with Elliot Wave Theory, but that was incorrectly applied.

Now you are using 1 Week 50 MA, it retested 1 Week 200 MA. but that really isn't the case, just from looking at it, i can see it has crossed it numerous times without retesting...

I have never been a big believer in TA, more of a subscriber to the fundamentals. It's kind of like what came first, "the chicken or the egg"

Now that you have this information, have you started to short Bitcoin? Are you putting your money where you mouth is?

Again, do you really believe we have hit the top of this bull run?


EDIT: i don't believe you are being a troll... You are trying to support your theory, unlike some other who post one liners and disappear...

Explanation

Say me a troll when you yourself are.
This forum is to talk about Bitcoin and the analysis are part of it.

Also, its called bitcointalk.org, not bitcoinbullstalk.org for a reason.

EDIT: Also, you are part of this forum since 2011 and the only trusted feedback you got is from someone who said "Excellent reputation". Should have spent more time with the community rather than being a loner who calls everyone stupid or idiot for their posts.

EDIT 2: If am not wrong, you had your own Wall Observer thread where you can moderate and see what you want to see. Please go and use that, cheers.

... how about you take your shite ever-more-berish charts somewhere else?

... you do realise you are in a bitcoin bull forum where we've been in a secular bull market for over 10 years?

... you are either a bear troll or an idiot, either way, bring something useful, not this crap ... ha fucking ha BS

Explanation

Explanation

Okay so, I made this chart where my target was almost 19k however that was the case if BTC drops on that weekly candle itself.


If we take time into consideration for the price to meet the Weekly 200 MA, it will be near about $24k.
This changes the price drop from current price from 46% to 30%.



Thanks for reading!

Explanation

Explanation

IMF is in bed with the MIC, it will probably start with sanctions and end with war, have to bring democracy to El Salvador.

I am glad that you pre-emptively struck with your unsolicited explanation regarding why you sold recently (with your parts of parts of your "micro" "play money") 

hahahahahaha

By the way.. my lowest sell amount is currently set for in the $40ks and then $41ks.. and then every thousand up from there.. have not sold anything in a very long time..,. so I believe that my $1k increments continue until the lower $60ks and thereafter they go to either $2,500 and then soonthereafter $3,333-ish.. $1k is too close.. except for the last year we have mostly been stuck in this kind of $29k to $69k range.. so I only barely got into $2,500 and $3,333 increments before having to revert back to $1k increments.

I recall in most of 2018, 2019 and 2020 I was in $500 increments.. so surely some graduation had taken place.... little by little, no?



I watched it too.. and largely I was wondering what he was saying exactly, and even the various reporters were asking questions as if he was actually saying something.

Regarding your other point... Sure... have you ever seen Powel and JJG in the same room at the same time?

Good question.

I am not going to slip any meaningful clues.

Mums the word.




I know that guys here do different things, and several of us have described situations in which we had made our recovery a bit complicated and could have lost our funds due to our creation of complications.   

I will say that one thing that I do is to divide my recovery seed into three parts and I keep two copies.  So sure it is a little bit complicated, but I get worried, for example, if one of the locations is damaged by fire, water or something else and then I would not have a back up... so in that sense I keep some geographical separation.  Maybe it is not a very big deal if you were to have only $1k to $10k of value, but historically even that $1k to $10k in value went up 100x.. .so $1K to $10k could have turned into $100k to $1million.. .. I remember having a certainly high amount on one of my hotwallets.. and kind of considered it NOT a Big deal, but between 2015 and 2017, prices went up 78x...so some of those hotwallet values became problematic (on the upside.. so for example, even $100 became $7,800 and even $1,000 became $78k).. luckily nothing happened before I finally did end up pulling those BTC/sats off line and putting the vast majority of those funds in an off-line location.  I am not saying that I had those amounts, but still you get the idea that sometimes you might take smaller levels of security and then not really realize how much the value went up and then consider that maybe you need to up your security.

Even in this latest run.. we may well have had some guys who got sub $7k coins. and then when the price went up to nearly $70k.. those coins were 10x in value.. at least for a period of time... that was back in the good ole days when guys could more easily buy a whole coin in one shot.

Explanation

We might be speaking past each other a bit because it seems that I am somewhat focused on suggesting that whatever drop in BTC price that we have had so far, maybe nearly 53%, if we are referring to $32,951 as our low of the correction, so far.  When focusing on whether the top is in, I am still considering that the odds have not really changed that much.. maybe they came down a few percentage points... from 55% to nearly 50%, and maybe we could even go a bit greater than that... So I was not even attempting to address the variety of other scenarios.. just focusing on whether the top is in or not.

So, if you are assigning different odds or you are focusing on some other question, then we might be getting into a kind of preparing for something that is low odds.

Also, the guy who assigns near certainty to the top already being in seems to be engaging in risky gambling scenario to me, even though s/he might end up being correct that is at best in the 50/50 arena.



Well you seem to be raising two questions here. One question relates to the top not being in, and so therefore, the cycle dragging out longer.. which surely seems like a reasonable outcome, and the other more extreme you are asserting that bitcoin is not going to go to zero... Yeah.. of course, that is more or less a given and not really being discussed.. but if you want to talk about a more realistic scenario, then we might talk about whether lows are going to go further than $32,951, or whether we will get back into the $20ks and will we break below $28,600, will we reach the lower $20ks and will we break below $20k.. those would be more urgent questions rather than something that you are assigning 99.9% odds of not happening... Why go to such extremes when it is hardly even an immediate question in front of us?


O.k.. fair enough that the end of this cycle could be determined by a lower low.. I doubt that would be enough to convince me, but staying below the 104-week moving average for a significant amount of time., such as one to two weeks would likely convince me that the cycle has good chances of being over... currently the 104-week moving average is around $31k.




Sure, bitcoin prices can move 10% to 20% pretty quickly in either direction.. and surely it is helpful to be at least 20% above any price that you are in fear of reaching... and if any of us is contemplating whether a bottom is in, then it is nice to get at least 20% to 40% above that feared "bottom price" before becoming too smug about any assertions that the bottom is "in"


I don't know about that.  Of course, it is nice if we are able to get some kind of clear bounce off of a bottom, but sometimes there is a gradual rise from the bottom before a distance is made to cause some certainties about the bottom being in.  For sure, I am not anywhere close to asserting that this bottom is in or close to being in when the best that we have gotten, so far, is a bounce up to $39k - which is merely an 18% bounce from the bottom and hardly even enough to have confidence that the bottom is in..

Maybe these days we are going to need to look at the $46k to $50k price range before starting to feel some confidence about the bottom being in..so yeah.. we are not even close to that.. so maybe there is a need to flesh out some ideas about how far the down might go.. how long it might stay down and whether any of those down scenarios might negate the possibility of even getting into some kind of price (such as within the $46k to $50k range currently), in which we might be able to develop some confidence that the bottom is in..


Fair enough.


For sure this cycle is having several differences that seem inevitable etched in already, whether we end up going down from here or up from here.. and yeah, I really doubt that we will go sideways for very long.. but who knows..?

I suppose that if we were to make some kind of a SOMA prediction for the next 3 months (end of April), maybe we could say something like from here $36k--- the odds of finishing the 3 months above $46k would be something like 38%, the odds for going finishing below $30k would be something like 33% and the odds for sideways (finishing within the range) would be something like  30%... I suppose that we could come up with all kinds of timelines about where we might finish at the end of the timeline or what might be the highest/lowest price during that timeline.  I am not saying that I know, but each of us may well come up with different probability assignments, depending upon how the question is framed and also maybe how strongly we might be influenced by recent BTC price dynamics, too.

Explanation

Explanation

Game over IMF!

I can see what you are saying. It was venturing on the more shocking way of communicating for someone who seems to be failing/refusing to appreciate certain kinds of creative ways that I attempt to communicate about attempting to see the bright side of a seemingly negative situation...

I will clarify, however, I did not share such picture with one of my family members in which I attempt to maintain more formal communications.. it was someone with whom I thought that various kinds of informalities would be acceptable.  The reaction caused me to conclude that I might have to be a bit more sparing and less daring with those ways of communicating with that person... Really?  "I don't get it." "I don't get it." is just telling me that such person does not want to "get it."


Well?  You may have a point.  Such person had recently been telling me that there would be a preference that I communicate with more pictures, memes and graphs... yet I have not yet been successful.. and so I am thinking that I should just be sticking to my core competencies, even if such person does not seem to understand such core competencies.



I cannot recall whether I have ever apologized in my whole life, except when my teachers in grade school would force such words to come out of my mouth.  For sure, there are firsts for everything.. I may have to consider the context of the matter, and perhaps for a moment, put myself in my second-grader shoes.. if that might seem the best path forward, given the level of mess that I have so far created for my lil selfie.


Don't do it.

All we need is another homeless WO participant.. bad enough that so many in these here parts have been considering that they are being creative merely by adding chicken bones to their ramen.


Speak for yourself.  I would not call bouncing between $32k and $69k in the past 3 months as being really that bad of a thing, and even if you extrapolate for the whole of the last 12 months from the end of January to the end of January, we are not really that bad even for the whole year.. The 52-week moving average shows the average price for the past year, and even though somewhat flat is still at about $48k.

If you consider that we spent most of 2018, 2019, and 2020 below $10k.. If you look at that 52-week moving average during that time, it had gotten up to nearly $9k by the end of 2018, but then took another 2 years to get up to $9k..

You can see it in this chart (but the certificate for the website is not renewed so maybe you don't want to look)... https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#igWeeklyzczsg2018-02-01zeg2020-10-06ztgMza1gSMAzm1g52za2gSMAzm2g208zv

Anyhow, the 52-week moving average has been going up ever since about mid-2019 when it got down to about the $5,500 territory... even though 52-week moving average seems to currently be flattening out in the upper $40ks..  . but still does not seem to be a bad thing....and I suppose the near term BTC price is going to tell us if that 52-week moving average is going to continue to go up, go sideways or go down.. and surely I am thinking that it still has good chances to go up.. even though for sure, I like to simultaneously maintain the "you never know" perspective.

Explanation

Explanation