Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 42. (Read 26735992 times)

Explanation
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Explanation
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(Edited)

Yes, or Jan 31. In which case (31 as opposed to 1), the bull has to pay a little more. 66/33 maybe? You get my drift. 0.0066 btc vs 0.0033. Winner takes 0.0099.

Let it be clear, I'm not taking either side - and wouldn't. I basically agree that it's too consensual to be bettable. However, for a fair price... odds at 33/66 means 33sats:66sats and I wouldn't, but how about 2:7? Or 2:9?

It's a game. I'm just trying to formulate bets that someone could possibly consider taking. Would I take the bear 1:1? No. 10:1? Possibly. A bit like a sour ass insurance via a conservative put option.  Would I take the bull side for 2 against 11? It's under 1:5! I don't feel like thinking about such things, but it's fun to engineer the bet.


The explicit provision that reaching 200k and going back down before Jan (31) is still a winning event wasn't stated explicitly. Also, 200k could be a good sanctuary level for the "which first? <90k or uppity?" bet (300k was a bit too far off IMHO).

Even if we correct the date to your original intention, I have difficulties finding it sufficiently controversial in order to be bettable, and yeah, maybe someone would be willing to take one side or the other of the bet.

Let me see if I understand the bet.  You are saying that the price would have to be $200k or greater on January 1, 2027?  How is that different than proposing whether it would be over or under? 

To me, it does not really seem any different than WatChe's original proposal, except for specifying the date to be January 1, 2027 rather than being January 2027.

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News ref

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My bad JJG, I meant 2027 (edited the OP).


The bet is set up by negotiating the rates (and therefore the individual ticket amounts) between the two sides. They need not be equal in the general case (40/60 easy to do etc). Winner takes all.

In order to try to stay somewhat grounded in reality, it is way better to try to come up with discussions about dates that are closer in time, and even my projection of the 200-WMA out to 2072 ends up providing numbers that are in the ballpark of $13.5 million..  and, so that is for the bottom prices, and my current projection of the 200-WMA starts to go over $1 million is in 2040.... so yeah, even when I project the 200-WMA, I attempt to adjust that projection every 6 months in order to make any adjustments to where the current 200-WMA has actually arrived as compared with my projections and then maybe tweak any of my forward projections (percentage increases that get smaller with the passage of time)

From my perspective, another thing about if something might be bettable has to do with coming up with members have greatly different views of the outcome so that they might bet willing to take the other side of the bet... Surely if someone says makes a claim that seems outrageous or overly confident, then that certainty level of the claim could make it more bettable - including taking sides and potentially figuring out odds.

Explanation
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Maybe this could be bettable?
Bearish case seems <0.5 to me, but I'm just saying.

Finally!… 2 solid pages of quality discussion!…

They are merely representative of rich people who are passionate about accumulating bitcoin....

They might know some things that we do not know, yet I doubt that it is important to try to figure out what they know or they don't know, and surely even if they were not there buying bitcoin or they might say to sell bitcoin, we should not let them influence us.. even though I used them as a current example of persons who seem to be ongoingly passionate in current times to be accumulating bitcoin.

Sure some of us may well be skeptical of rich people, so we might fear that they are selling as we are buying, but that would be reading too much into my statement, since I am largely just asserting that they are currently buying, so implicitly if we are selling then they are buying from us... which is likely good for them, and really I have a lot of doubts about anyone selling in or around $100k, especially if there are thoughts of buying back cheaper. that would be dumb.  But I also get concerned about low coiners and no coiners who fail/refuse to continue to buy bitcoin in these around $100k prices based on their thoughts that BTC prices might go lower, which they may well have the wrong mindset and start to think more like Michael and Larry... and keep getting as many coins as possible within their budgets... and surely folks have limited budgets, so I know that, and I know that it tends to take normies many years to build up their investments, such as 4-10 years  or more, and if they are able to front load their investments, then perhaps they might put themselves into a similar disposition as Michael and Larry who do see to be wanting to continue to want to front-load their investment into bitcoin (even though some of us might conjecture that they have enough), which I doubt it.. I think that each of them are continuing to consider $100k-ish bitcoin to be largely bargain BTC prices.


You labelled ur lil selfie as being a bear... after 2.5 weeks of failing to get another ATH.. quite hilarious, upon reflection.    ... Edit: oh upon even more reflection to bring in some history a whimpy bear wannabe... who would-a-thunk?


Sure. I have been using $85k as a price reference point, yet not that I was expecting to reach it.. but just as a point in which some of the folks (are they called weak hands?) selling around $100k might consider buying back, but I had been saying that I tentatively believed that those weak hands would not be rewarded with such satisfaction.. that was my tentative theory around $85k, but I am willing to be flexible as the circumstances change.  

In other words, I am willing to roll with the punches if the facts change, then the assessment might have to change.  I don't usually want to get too caught upon specifics that might change with changes in circumstances and/or changes in momentum..and so yeah, short term predictions can be all over the place, and is not really anything that I tend to do with much greater than 50/50  odds..... so for example if we were to get down close to $90k then $85k would feel more likely as compared to when we have not quite broken $95.6k in our most current local low of today.

Also, I personally bounce around in terms of not really wanting to make short-term predictions beyond 50/50.. and yeah  if we are in a bull market then the leanings towards up is greater than the leaning towards down.

At the same time, I don't mind going on the attack if I get the sense that some members might be posting with what seems to be high levels of certainty, and it is even more compelling to go on the attack if they are talking about us  being in a bear market after us having had an ATH a mere 2.5 weeks ago.


I don't have any explanation.  We get into consolidation periods sometimes.  There was up from the election  date until Trump's swearing in date... and then maybe some stalling around what Trump might do, to the extent that matters within the price dynamics of dee cornz.. yet of course, we likely realize that bitcoin also relies somewhat on liquidity, so if liquidity dries up then there can be affects on bitcoin to the extent that it might be correlated to some of that, and you likely realize that I am not a big fan of correlation, yet if everything  might be crashing (fear around tariffs etc), then uncertainties come in the market that make it more difficult to rally if everything else is either stagnant or having little crashes.  I doubt that I need any explanation, and yeah whatever, if you want to adjust your feelings about a wannabe bear market into a failure of a bull market then sure whatever, it seems to be a bit of a switch, but you do  sometimes like to get doomie and gloomie in some of your prognostications from time to time.. or to get all negative nancy about dee cornz, so it is not like a new thing to see you going down that road.


We are 6 days into February.  

Look at those outflows...

I'm bullish, but not that bullish.  I see it flattening out above $130k, but below $150.  I also think it'll descend to below $50k before the next 4-year cycle.  

I'm a long-termer, and don't really care about the fluctuations.  I'm just basing my predictions on history and trying to be realistic.  I grabbed some sats last week, the week before, and the week before that, and nothing will stop me from grabbing some next week.

Well, I could lose my job, but let's not get bleak.

Let's see how Feb closes as the current negative number could be just random fluctuation.

Explanation
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I got lost in @JJG quotation...he (provisional, since it was never acknowledged one way or another) seems to label anyone musing about stalling prices as 'being a bear'.

I don't think I gave any bearish targets, in contrary to @jjg who mentions 85K quite often.
What I was talking about is a stark contrast between a multitude of bullish news and a lack of NGU movements.

To me, this sucks as I don't believe in "manipulation".
Apart from talking about "correction" what is your explanation of such disconnect, @jjg, eh?
I am all ears.

And what about them , i always think they know what we (or should i sy "some of us") don't maybe

I hope that I am not being too much of a meanie, since I am mostly attempting to go by the contents of your post, and nothing about you personally.


You can present bearish views. Nothing wrong with that. Some guys might not agree with you, but you make some decent points from time to time, and even Biodom and/or Lucius.. the other "speaking the truth" bear wannabes might have had possibly (perhaps?) made one or two good points once in a while, too (maybe once or twice each?)..  

Since you use the word "respectful," you seem to be suggesting that I might be going a wee bit overboard in my emphases of whatever points or counter-points I have been making in response to your posts?

I don't see any reason to be nice to bear talking-points or to spend a lot of time trying to figure out a nice way to say something that I might disagree with.  Sure sometimes I might end up changing my mind, but I cannot see that I am overly going into personal attacks beyond just making some emphases from time to time.  If I say, "your ideas are dumb or ridiculous or overly pessimistic or you are talking your book" that is not a personal attack even though I might be pointing out some things that might not end up being true, but it would not imply that I am arguing in bad faith merely because I am using some strong language to express my from time to time disagreements.

Explanation
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You are "completely stupid" (your words  hahahahaha) because you are fucking around trying to trade bitcoin even though you can see that bitcoin is undervalued.

WO guys are not new to bitcoin, so of course, we know that ongoingly if there is any kind of stop or slowing down in price momentum in one direction or the other, then various forces are going to be battling to push BTC's price to bring it down as low as possible and to keep it down as long as possible to shake out as many weak hands as can be shook.  What's new?  We've been here several times, and even ongoingly, but if we have been paying attention then we are not going to be losing our confidence and try to fuck around trying to trade waves (corrections) that may or may not end up happening.


Bitcoin was build for these kinds of matters, and it seems to be working out pretty well.  Yeah, we have BIG players trying  to play both sides and likely engaging in various kinds of fractional reserves, but they are going to get themselves into trouble if they get on the wrong side of some of their manipulation attempts.


Ever since October 2023, we have not had very many extensive corrections, and surely we already know that bitcoin has historically had decently large price corrections, even during bull runs.  Yeah, you can say that our correction from $74k to $49k (32%-ish) between March and August was meaningful and large, but to me comes off as a BIG so fucking what?

Now you want to suggest (cry that the sky is falling) mere on a wee widdow correction from $109k to $95k?  Only 13%-ish, so far.  That is nothing.. We should be able to do these kinds of corrections  in our sleep.



Or maybe you think that the sky is falling because the BTC price is failing to go up as much and /or as fast as you would like it (or you believe it should) go up.  That seems misplaced too... There were even several of us who had suggested a possibility of buy the rumor, sell the news, whether we want to refer to a Trump pump or not... but still BTC prices seem to be hanging in there pretty well.


Oh gawd..  

You want to say that we have not been having enough UPpity, since we have not had an ATH in the past 2.5 weeks, and we have been on a steady decline for 2.5 weeks from our ATH...? Therefore we are in a bear market?

What kind of a looney world is this?  Spreading depression since we have not had another ATH for 2.5 weeks, therefore we are in a bear market?


Bear markets do not work like that, especially in bitcoin.  Yeah, bull markets may take 3 years and have several corrections along the way... which is the 3 greens and a red framework.

I will admit that bear markets do sometimes end up coming, yet we might not be able to confirm for several months (maybe even up to 6 months) that we had actually entered into such bear market 6 months earlier.


Now you want to throw around dumbass terms to distinguish cyclical bear as compared to local bear?  Why can't you just characterize where we are at as a correction and you are not sure how big of a correction that it might be?.. just seems lame when people are throwing around bear and bull and bear as if we can have a bear market within a bull market, which is just emotion-ladened doomer and gloomer kinds of thinking that seems to ONLY either be inspiring panic, or trading or some other dumb ass techniques  that may well not end up working out very well for those who engage in those kinds of ways to lose their focus on accumulating bitcoin (or HODLing).


The bull market can end at any time. There is no rule that it has to continue for 4 years merely because it did in the past.

So yeah, there will likely be a lot of dumb fucks 1) selling too many BTC too soon and/or 2) failing/refusing to continue to stack sats (and to prepare for up).

You can be one trying to play the waves or to time the market....yet since you ONLY been on the forum for around a year and a half, it seems that you should be stacking sats, unless for some reason you were able to front load your investment into bitcoin... but anyhow, guys can do whatever they want, and historically we have seen a lot of geniuses selling large portions of their stash, and this time around Michael and Larry will be thanking you for your donations to the cause.


You don't see a bear because you are rational and not just throwing out bullshit premature talking points based on 2.5 weeks of data that does not even support a bear theory anyhow... just supports a "let's get scared" for nothing theory.


Funny that?

For some strange reason (maybe I am "completely stupid?" stole that one from OOM).. , bitcoin does not seem broken to me.