Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 43. (Read 26453660 times)
August 21, 2024, 05:01:16 AM
August 21, 2024, 04:54:09 AM
Kamala Harris proposes ~45% long term capital gains tax and an additional 25% tax on unrealised capital gains for rich people.
God bless America.
God bless America.
God bless if she won’t be elected…. Then god bless the Americans even those who are still not willing to see…
August 21, 2024, 04:38:36 AM
How can you be taxed on anything that is not realized? Like, what if I lose the keys, or get robbed? Will I get to pay a tax on a property that I do not own?
August 21, 2024, 04:01:14 AM
August 21, 2024, 03:01:15 AM
August 21, 2024, 02:52:34 AM
Kamala Harris proposes ~45% long term capital gains tax and an additional 25% tax on unrealised capital gains for rich people.
God bless America.
God bless America.
I wonder how much this tax will impact a debt that increases by 1 trillion every 90 days. They need to pump the SPX to 50,000 to make a dent.
Once again, socialist nonsense.
August 21, 2024, 02:24:59 AM
Kamala Harris proposes ~45% long term capital gains tax and an additional 25% tax on unrealised capital gains for rich people.
God bless America.
God bless America.
August 21, 2024, 02:08:29 AM
Summer ends next month means 4 weeks+ of depressing bear market.
October is almost always a mega green dildo.
Let's hope for it.
I agree! Fingers crossed
August 21, 2024, 02:01:16 AM
August 21, 2024, 01:57:06 AM
I figure 200k or bust in the next 8-9 months
If it hits $200K in the next 9 months it’ll be me that busts. I guess our spending so much time in this no man's land and/or in don't wake me up zone (which seems a bit out of character for dee cornz), has contributed to some jadedness in my own thinking, even though being stuck in this particular price zone should not even be that negative of a sign or happening.. bouncing around at mostly the top of the range.. .... but still.. sometimes these kinds of periods can have a kind of wearing effect, even if some of us might still remain relatively optimistic.. it is not like I am selling an cornz.. ,,, and tending to buy more than I sell in the whole scheme of things.. . but still..
But for now, I could sleep until Q4..
Bitcoin is never completely boring, even when we are going through these various consolidation periods... so yeah, it is hard to be overly pessimistic, even though sometimes some tinges of the pessimism and wondering how long will it last could be going on... .. I mean, we get other members saying that they are bored, but then at the same time, there is a bit of what else is new? this is what bitcoin does, and I doubt that any of us can deny that there is a battle going on underneath too, even during these consolidation periods.
[edited out]
Mining btc is not like mining gold.it's important to remember that the average electricity cost of Bitcoin is around 60k. the likelihood of Bitcoin staying below these price levels for the long term is not very high
Fair enough point about some potential for the incentives to want to push BTC prices above the cost of production, even though hashrate does not really dictate BTC prices (which seems to be a point that our buddy Phillipma1957 and a few others like to unconvincingly make from time to time), and also even though I was not able to find that chart: https://capriole.com/charts/.. which I should not have to try to verify from where ever it might have had originated. The btc that is mined needs mining to exsist.
mined gold does not need mining to continue its existence.
Btc is totally dependent on continuing mining. gold is not.
to think mining has no effect on price and only demand moves price is to dent the fundamentals of btc as compare to gold or silver or any precious metal.
For sure, there is no all or nothing relationship, yet bitcoin has built in incentives for the miners to stick around, so yeah, we could have 99% of them leave and bitcoin is still going to work since the difficulty adjustments will take place to the hashing power level of however many remaining miners exist, even if there might ONLY be 1 or 2 remaining.
So I am not sure about the point that you are making... bitcoin adjusts along the way..and yeah there could be attacks that relate to mining and hashrate so I am not even proclaiming the whole mining scene is without flaws and potential collusion, but they are still not leaders in regards to the price.. they respond to the price including their anticipations of future price, which they may or may not end up anticipating the future price or the difficulty or various other aspects of their business correctly... so you can go on believing whatever you like in your seeming to want to emphasize more power to the miners than they actually have. They can choose whether or not to mine and they can attempt to play various other games, and I don't claim to know all of the details nor do I care to do any further research beyond what I get from time to time (potentially through osmosis) through my regular snooping of my nose into various bitcoin related matters and various aspects of mining continues to be subject matters of many bitcoin conversations regarding the status of pools and how templates are made and various matters related to revenue sharing and obscurities.
Regarding your gold comparison, bitcoin is around 1,000x more valuable than gold, but currently it is ONLY around 1/15th the price. .. so yeah it could take 50-200 years to work it all out.. perhaps? In the meantime, there are some comparisons to gold, but other comparisons not so much since bitcoin has been eating gold's lunch and going to likely continue to eat its lunch for quite some time to come, including potentially for the next 50-200 years or so... hard to attempt to predict beyond that... and probably I am going too far with whatever lame prediction I have just made.
To further argue the point. If all mining of gold stops. Gold will become more valuable as it will become rare.
and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.
So yeah mining does affect and control btc much more than it does gold or silver or precious material.
and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.
So yeah mining does affect and control btc much more than it does gold or silver or precious material.
Hopefully, you are not making your BTC investment ideas on such ideas, even though technically you are correct... and yeah, preparation for world-wide Armageddon or worse than world-wide Armageddon is not a non-zero situation, yet bitcoin is still around 1,000x better than gold... believe it or not..
Not so much oil which needs continued mining to exsist.
In a way oil is a better model than gold for btc but the reality is neither oil or gold model the way btc does when it comes to the mining of it.
In a way oil is a better model than gold for btc but the reality is neither oil or gold model the way btc does when it comes to the mining of it.
Bitcoin is a unique asset, especially in regards to its non-physicality, but sure it does depend on electricity and communication abilities... so will give you that.. and so how big are the world electricity and communication channels going to be shut down and for how long... So my investment in bitcoin did not help me in that situation, but I am still able to just live to the extent that I have guns and bullets? I am not very prepared for that, even though surely it is not a non-zero chance.
its why traditional supply and demand is not exactly correct to say that is controls btc price.
btc mining can directly influence supply across the board.. in and it can directly influence demand.
gold mining can only partially influence supply.
btc mining can directly influence supply across the board.. in and it can directly influence demand.
gold mining can only partially influence supply.
I doubt that all of the miners are going to voluntarily stop mining bitcoin, so there is likely going to be ways to continue to mine.. yet surely I don't know the details, yet there are nodes too that determine the network, and so yeah there could be a hard fork at some point within the Armageddon scenario or whatever other scenario you are anticipating to allow your little fantasy about hashrate supposedly controlling price or whatever point you are making about the powerful presence of miners in bitcoin to be relevant.
[...]and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.[...]
Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely. It's not a global on/off switch. If miners start shutting down, the difficulty will drop, giving more incentive for smaller miners to start mining, thus resuming the 1 block / 10 min target. It's a self-regulating closed loop. Can't speed it up, can't slow it down. It's been beating steadily for 15 years now.We all seem to realize this point, yet phillip seems to want to continue to proclaim some kind of a powerful omnipotence within the miners as an entity and as if they were some kind of a monolithic group.
[edited out
Right there with you ambatman. I'd set some lofty but achievable goals back in 2021 about where I wanted my stack size to be by mid point 2025. I'm at that accumulation point now, where I have exceeded these goals a year early. I definitely feel a little bit like I will have over accumulated by mid 2025, but I'm continuing along with my plan. I'm in it for long haul, and so far so good.It seems like similar things happened for me in regards to setting various goals and then reaching them earlier than expected, and surely some of the goals ended up changing along the way which was likely based on learning along the way.
It likely is not bad to get to a point of reaching your goal and then overaccumulating to some degree, especially since you had been spreading your BTC accumulation over a whole 4 year cycle.. .. yet there might be some tailoring that you might end up planning on doing, yet for sure we cannot really be sure what the BTC price is going to do for the remainder of this year or next year...even though we have some ideas, so I would imagine that you have already accounted for the theories regarding what might happen and then other aspects of what ends up happening to the extent that it might end up varying from expectations.
Even for me, I think that I had some dilemmas when I was enterring into a state in which I realized that I had enough BTC which was late 2014, yet I could not really resist continuing to buy more throughout 2015 and even into 2016.. but then I think that I kind of started to figure out ways to transition into a different kind of thinking by the time 2017 came.. so each person has their own little transitioning points...and maybe some personal tweaks that you might make to whatever you are doing in regards to accumulation/continuing to accumulate or perhaps getting into some kind of a maintenance stage - which can also vary for guys.
Whenever choppiness comes up in the price, I always go back to the 200 WMA and go are we uppity,downity or matchity to it so there is some comfort here at the moment with 34k 200 wma vs 56-62k short -term range we are in now.
I am not sure where you are finding your 200-WMA, but all the places I see the 200-WMA, it is just above $38k, currently.
https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy
Surely we should be able to have some reliance on the 200-WMA as a kind of bottom.. even though surely we know that it can be broken through from time to time, and we still have to witness more time with the BTC price staying close to it for longer periods of time in the future if the BTC price might start to go up slower or less fast (maybe bitcoin getting out of its earliest stages of adoption and the price slope becoming less steep with the passage of time), and through bitcoin's history, the 200-WMA has continued to go up and BTC's spot price has tended to mostly stay above it, even tending to be more than 50% above it as it is right now right in that price territory...
The MM's really dont like it to go above 60k for some reason, hopefully the degens get rekt soon.
It seems that UP is the most likely direction, yet we still have to be financially and psychologically prepared for anything, even if we may have reasonable conclusions that UP remains the more likely direction.
Recently and I dont think saw this anywhere, a poster(tighttighttightyea) on reddit did an analysis of perceived avg cost price for etf buyers, and its sitting around avg 56.5k. Here is the link.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JZgh5gi9gM3sr1mjoT6Fv9oeESra81TrNtVW__uX8H4/edit?usp=sharing
The etf buyers can't really use 200 wma for comfort so what are they using?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JZgh5gi9gM3sr1mjoT6Fv9oeESra81TrNtVW__uX8H4/edit?usp=sharing
The etf buyers can't really use 200 wma for comfort so what are they using?
Maybe a BTC hodler accumulator needs to be in bitcoin for close to 4 years forthe 200-WMA to start to make more sense on a more personal and experiential level?
The oldest of the purchasers of BTC spot ETF shares have ONLY been in bitcoin for around 8 months, so there are a lot of newbies, even though I do anticipate that over the long run, the BTC spot ETF share purchasers are going to tend to be a wee bit more sticky, even though likely we can suspect that the earliest of BTC spot ETF purchasers were less typical and insiders trying to front run to some degree.
[...]and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.[...]
Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely. It's not a global on/off switch. If miners start shutting down, the difficulty will drop, giving more incentive for smaller miners to start mining, thus resuming the 1 block / 10 min target. It's a self-regulating closed loop. Can't speed it up, can't slow it down. It's been beating steadily for 15 years now.the difference is btc in a wallet fully needs active mining to stay "alive"
the oz of gold in the bar in my house does not need active mining to stay a gold bar.
So when supply + demand people say it's all in demand for price. it is not the same fundamentals as the demand for gold.
btc supply new and old needs active mining
gold supply new needs active mining old does not.
I think this is basically ignored in loyce and jjg's models for btc price.
I can't speak for Loyce or his supposed model, but I doubt that I personally have much if any model beyond saying that the various pictures that you seem inclined to ongoingly paint in regards to the supposed power of miners in bitcoin seems contrary to facts and contrary to logic, but you can keep going on about it with whatever your new spin is also coming off as a bit esoteric and perhaps too much of an attempt at originality, which at best maybe we (royal perhaps?) might applaud you for creativity at best, and one of the specialities of trolls is to come up with lame ass specialized theories... professor Jorge Stolfi used to come up with all kinds of creative bullshit negging on bitcoin... just like you seem to do with your attempts to want to get miners to be bitcoin's supposed leaders.whether it is hashpower or whatever choice to mine (whether voluntary or by forces of nature) scenarios you are wanting to outline as being potentially relevant to how bitcoin works and supposedly gets its security, existence and price too..
mining of btc can 2x affect supply which surely will affect demand directly much more than gold.
I have tended to think of bitcoin's supply as both fixed and largely known. Sure there are some aspects of it that are not known too, but not enough to really materially affect matters, since the more important data might be related to movement of coins and perhaps the extent to which fake coins might be in the mix.
I try to think about demand as a constant, but surely we have ongoing network effects (as outlined by Trace Mayer) and some various measures in regards to how we might be able to make further and more detailed inferences about demand and how it might change through time.
Sure every 4 years we have a halvening of the issued supply but at the same time we have new supply and existing supply and inactive versus active bitcoin users and also various potential attempts at diluting the supply with fake coins (which mostly I am inferring to be part of the dynamics of bitcoin, yet potentially more dangerous to try to carry out fractional reserves and end up getting caught on the wrong side of such a play).
yeah to think mining losing profit and dropping from 660eh to 330eh won't be a direct affect on price is quite naive.
last time mining dropped 50% due to china price dropped 50%. and mining lead the drop in price.
last time mining dropped 50% due to china price dropped 50%. and mining lead the drop in price.
Good luck with your blanket presumption that BTC price would go down merely based on another 50% drop in BTC hashing power, if that were to occur in some kind of timeline similar to the 2021 drop.. and sure the hashrate could drop a lot more quickly too, and there could be scenarios in which the hashrate drop might be an attack, so the BTC price might end up dropping for reasons that are other than the mere fact that a hashrate drop had also taken place. We would likely need to see the facts of such hypothetical first, before presuming doom and gloom.
I do know that some folks like to blame the 50% 2021 Chinese hashrate for the failure for bitcoin to have a blow off supra $100k top, and surely i am not too much of a fan for single cause explanations since there were plenty of other things going on in bitcoinlandia in 2021 and also in 2021 and also in 2020.. so there is a before and after context and I see no reason for me to try to debunk your version of events, you can believe whatever you like in regards to how much you believe that BTC's price is circumscribed by various aspects related to miners and/or hashrate.
oh and a nice bart as price drops to 59k
sure a bart, but also largely noise.
Back again below 60K....
Boring BTC charts until Q4 ?
Boring BTC charts until Q4 ?
That would have had been bettable if you had not put the question mark behind it. Not that anyone in particular, not even referring to this here cat, should want to enter into any kind of bet with uie-pooie.
Summer ends next month means 4 weeks+ of depressing bear market.
That sounds potentially bettable.
By the way largely consolidating at the top or even within 20% of the top would hardly even be considered a bear market as you seem to be suggesting that consolidating is a bear market, which truly you are all over the place with your definitions and still your downity is likely not even close to playing out in ways that you have been prognosticating, and perhaps that is why you keep continuing to amend whatever a "depressing bear market" means to you.
[edited out]
zelle is perfectly safe if you know what you are doing much like knowing how to send btc you must know you have the correct address.You, philip, really seem to get a hard-on for various legacy services, and sure I have no problem with an ongoing availability of those various options, and some of those various legacy options might becoming more competitive due to bitcoin (and perhaps even giving some credit to various shitcoins too), so even you should recognize that there is value to be able to transact (whether physically in person and/or sometimes at a distance) without any third parties in the middle... and yeah the space is ongoingly adapting and evolving, yet bitcoin has brought a quite a bit of ongoing empowerment to being able to transact directly in ways that we could not have had previously accomplished outside of physical cash.. which truly sometimes the two transacting parties are able to be physically together to carry out some kind of a transaction and sometimes not.
Mining btc is not like mining gold.
The btc that is mined needs mining to exsist.
mined gold does not need mining to continue its existence.
Btc is totally dependent on continuing mining. gold is not.
But gold doesn't make itself easier to find if too few mine it. Bitcoin does.The btc that is mined needs mining to exsist.
mined gold does not need mining to continue its existence.
Btc is totally dependent on continuing mining. gold is not.
Quote
to think mining has no effect on price and only demand moves price is to dent the fundamentals of btc as compare to gold or silver or any precious metal.
The point is that the offer of new btc stays pretty stable as long as one miner keeps crunching numbers. In other words, with difficulty adjustment a single miner can keep ALL the mineable btc in existence. This isn't true for gold: it does continue to exist even if no one mines it, but has little financial or industrial use when it's buried deep down.since there is no more gold to be had.
Oh gawd...
And, now you are actually pumping gold.We can agree to disagree if you believe that bitcoin and gold are currently fairly priced in terms of bitcoin being 1/15th the price of gold. You might consider bitcoin to be overvalued and/or gold to be undervalued by the current market.
Of course, many of us here appreciate that bitcoin is likely undervalued in the market as compared to gold, even though some might not agree with my tentative working thesis that bitcoin should be about 1,000x more valued than gold as reflected in the market price, so currently either gold has to come down and/or bitcoin has to go up, and surely I have already asserted that it could take 50-200 years for bitcoin and gold to find a more accurate pricing in the market, so in the mean time, under my working hypothesis bitcoin is going to continue to take value from gold, so you are spouting out a seemingly losing proposition if you are trying to suggest that bitcoin is not going to continue to be eating gold's lunch... and we don't even need to get into all the various ways that you supposedly are in wuv with gold.
if mining is reduced 100% all the mined coins are stuck and basically have no protection against double or triple spends if two people start to mine.
Pretty extreme ideas to consider bitcoin mining participation to drop that far.. .You must be presuming some kind of potential Armageddon event.
reality is you want btc to stay with a high price you need lots of mining.
Sure.. BTC price is going to drop under a lot of different catastrophe scenarios, yet the more realistic scenarios involve bitcoin continuing to go up in price and also continuing to eat gold's lunch... so it may well be better to be investing in terms of more realistic scenarios rather than going through various kinds of mental masterbation about mining..
We might have to start to refer to you as Professor Stolfi wannabe, soon.. I believe that in 2014, 2015 and maybe into 2016, Stolfi ws active in this thread and he had a lot of lame-ass fantasy-like theories about bitcoin that were not dumb but they were really out there in terms of their non-likelihood.
when hashrate dropped 50% in spring of 2021
price followed and dropped 50%.
price followed and dropped 50%.
Nice theory in regards to correlation equaling causation...and even if true, did it last?
if gold production drops like mad the previously mined gold is not affected negatively.
we can type all night but the fact is btc baseline price is protected by mining.
we can type all night but the fact is btc baseline price is protected by mining.
I am shaking in my boots to realize that you had been correct all of this time. I am glad that we all know about this dynamic in bitcoin's price so that we can be better informed and prepared so that we don't overinvest into bitcoin..
@Greyhats: Immediately stop your BTC accumulations!!!!!, and don't go into an overaccumulation status.. it is not worth it.. Ask Phil.. He knows everything (or almost everything.. that's why you probably already have more BTC than him..., which should be the opposite. hahahahahahaha).
gold baseline price is not protected by mining in the same way.
@Greyhats: Immediately start your gold accumulations!!!!!, and go into an overaccumulation status.. Gold is worth it.. Ask Phil.. He knows everything (or almost everything.. that's why you probably already don't have more gold than him..., hahahahahahaha).
August 21, 2024, 01:14:40 AM
Mining btc is not like mining gold.
The btc that is mined needs mining to exsist.
mined gold does not need mining to continue its existence.
Btc is totally dependent on continuing mining. gold is not.
But gold doesn't make itself easier to find if too few mine it. Bitcoin does.The btc that is mined needs mining to exsist.
mined gold does not need mining to continue its existence.
Btc is totally dependent on continuing mining. gold is not.
Quote
to think mining has no effect on price and only demand moves price is to dent the fundamentals of btc as compare to gold or silver or any precious metal.
The point is that the offer of new btc stays pretty stable as long as one miner keeps crunching numbers. In other words, with difficulty adjustment a single miner can keep ALL the mineable btc in existence. This isn't true for gold: it does continue to exist even if no one mines it, but has little financial or industrial use when it's buried deep down.
if gold mining stops due to all gold being to hard to find, then all the gold that exist becomes more valuble.
since there is no more gold to be had.
if mining is reduced 100% all the mined coins are stuck and basically have no protection against double or triple spends if two people start to mine.
reality is you want btc to stay with a high price you need lots of mining.
when hashrate dropped 50% in spring of 2021
price followed and dropped 50%.
if gold production drops like mad the previously mined gold is not affected negatively.
we can type all night but the fact is btc baseline price is protected by mining.
gold baseline price is not protected by mining in the same way.
August 21, 2024, 01:01:13 AM
August 21, 2024, 12:45:56 AM
Mining btc is not like mining gold.
The btc that is mined needs mining to exsist.
mined gold does not need mining to continue its existence.
Btc is totally dependent on continuing mining. gold is not.
But gold doesn't make itself easier to find if too few mine it. Bitcoin does.The btc that is mined needs mining to exsist.
mined gold does not need mining to continue its existence.
Btc is totally dependent on continuing mining. gold is not.
Quote
to think mining has no effect on price and only demand moves price is to dent the fundamentals of btc as compare to gold or silver or any precious metal.
The point is that the offer of new btc stays pretty stable as long as one miner keeps crunching numbers. In other words, with difficulty adjustment a single miner can keep ALL the mineable btc in existence. This isn't true for gold: it does continue to exist even if no one mines it, but has little financial or industrial use when it's buried deep down.
August 21, 2024, 12:01:15 AM
August 20, 2024, 11:50:40 PM
[...]
and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.
[...]
and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.
[...]
Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely. It's not a global on/off switch. If miners start shutting down, the difficulty will drop, giving more incentive for smaller miners to start mining, thus resuming the 1 block / 10 min target. It's a self-regulating closed loop. Can't speed it up, can't slow it down. It's been beating steadily for 15 years now.
well much like gold or silver or oil companies will not full stop.
the difference is btc in a wallet fully needs active mining to stay "alive"
the oz of gold in the bar in my house does not need active mining to stay a gold bar.
So when supply + demand people say it's all in demand for price. it is not the same fundamentals as the demand for gold.
btc supply new and old needs active mining
gold supply new needs active mining old does not.
I think this is basically ignored in loyce and jjg's models for btc price.
mining of btc can 2x affect supply which surely will affect demand directly much more than gold.
yeah to think mining losing profit and dropping from 660eh to 330eh won't be a direct affect on price is quite naive.
last time mining dropped 50% due to china price dropped 50%. and mining lead the drop in price.
oh and a nice bart as price drops to 59k
Reading all this made me think that you think that mining is some kind of a weakness for bitcoin.
I would say, NOT as some energy sources for bitcoin are essentially free, like geothermal or hydro.
Yes, a miner in NJ may shut down due to costs, but El salvador would continue (using volcano power).
I personally think it would be terrible if only POS remain.
That said, efforts are underway to 'mobilize" already mined bitcpoin.
The question is: does already mined bitcoin has (in it) some kind of "stored energy"?
M. Saylor talks about it, and if it is so, there could be a smart way to use that "energy".
Personally, I don't think that bitcoin should be 'frozen' even if current mining activity (at some future point) is low.
The question is how to do it.
interesting a weakness or a problem yet to be solved.
i look and scrypt with its Ltc+doge+ now belles coins and I see doge rewards never ending. I see doge with a perfectly predictable shrinking inflation rate.I also see zelle as free and safe for US use and i think btc is going to need to solve long term revenues for miners.
well mike saylor is clever maybe he models a way to unlock mined coins.
sorry...that service you mentioned is NOT safe at all-scams all around, beware.
zelle is perfectly safe if you know what you are doing much like knowing how to send btc you must know you have the correct address.
I know a few who don't (present company excluded, of course), lol.
August 20, 2024, 11:29:55 PM
[...]
and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.
[...]
and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.
[...]
Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely. It's not a global on/off switch. If miners start shutting down, the difficulty will drop, giving more incentive for smaller miners to start mining, thus resuming the 1 block / 10 min target. It's a self-regulating closed loop. Can't speed it up, can't slow it down. It's been beating steadily for 15 years now.
well much like gold or silver or oil companies will not full stop.
the difference is btc in a wallet fully needs active mining to stay "alive"
the oz of gold in the bar in my house does not need active mining to stay a gold bar.
So when supply + demand people say it's all in demand for price. it is not the same fundamentals as the demand for gold.
btc supply new and old needs active mining
gold supply new needs active mining old does not.
I think this is basically ignored in loyce and jjg's models for btc price.
mining of btc can 2x affect supply which surely will affect demand directly much more than gold.
yeah to think mining losing profit and dropping from 660eh to 330eh won't be a direct affect on price is quite naive.
last time mining dropped 50% due to china price dropped 50%. and mining lead the drop in price.
oh and a nice bart as price drops to 59k
Reading all this made me think that you think that mining is some kind of a weakness for bitcoin.
I would say, NOT as some energy sources for bitcoin are essentially free, like geothermal or hydro.
Yes, a miner in NJ may shut down due to costs, but El salvador would continue (using volcano power).
I personally think it would be terrible if only POS remain.
That said, efforts are underway to 'mobilize" already mined bitcpoin.
The question is: does already mined bitcoin has (in it) some kind of "stored energy"?
M. Saylor talks about it, and if it is so, there could be a smart way to use that "energy".
Personally, I don't think that bitcoin should be 'frozen' even if current mining activity (at some future point) is low.
The question is how to do it.
interesting a weakness or a problem yet to be solved.
i look and scrypt with its Ltc+doge+ now belles coins and I see doge rewards never ending. I see doge with a perfectly predictable shrinking inflation rate.I also see zelle as free and safe for US use and i think btc is going to need to solve long term revenues for miners.
well mike saylor is clever maybe he models a way to unlock mined coins.
sorry...that service you mentioned is NOT safe at all-scams all around, beware.
zelle is perfectly safe if you know what you are doing much like knowing how to send btc you must know you have the correct address.
August 20, 2024, 11:01:17 PM
August 20, 2024, 10:35:26 PM
[...]
and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.
[...]
and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.
[...]
Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely. It's not a global on/off switch. If miners start shutting down, the difficulty will drop, giving more incentive for smaller miners to start mining, thus resuming the 1 block / 10 min target. It's a self-regulating closed loop. Can't speed it up, can't slow it down. It's been beating steadily for 15 years now.
well much like gold or silver or oil companies will not full stop.
the difference is btc in a wallet fully needs active mining to stay "alive"
the oz of gold in the bar in my house does not need active mining to stay a gold bar.
So when supply + demand people say it's all in demand for price. it is not the same fundamentals as the demand for gold.
btc supply new and old needs active mining
gold supply new needs active mining old does not.
I think this is basically ignored in loyce and jjg's models for btc price.
mining of btc can 2x affect supply which surely will affect demand directly much more than gold.
yeah to think mining losing profit and dropping from 660eh to 330eh won't be a direct affect on price is quite naive.
last time mining dropped 50% due to china price dropped 50%. and mining lead the drop in price.
oh and a nice bart as price drops to 59k
Reading all this made me think that you think that mining is some kind of a weakness for bitcoin.
I would say, NOT as some energy sources for bitcoin are essentially free, like geothermal or hydro.
Yes, a miner in NJ may shut down due to costs, but El salvador would continue (using volcano power).
I personally think it would be terrible if only POS remain.
That said, efforts are underway to 'mobilize" already mined bitcpoin.
The question is: does already mined bitcoin has (in it) some kind of "stored energy"?
M. Saylor talks about it, and if it is so, there could be a smart way to use that "energy".
Personally, I don't think that bitcoin should be 'frozen' even if current mining activity (at some future point) is low.
The question is how to do it.
interesting a weakness or a problem yet to be solved.
i look and scrypt with its Ltc+doge+ now belles coins and I see doge rewards never ending. I see doge with a perfectly predictable shrinking inflation rate.I also see zelle as free and safe for US use and i think btc is going to need to solve long term revenues for miners.
well mike saylor is clever maybe he models a way to unlock mined coins.
sorry...that service you mentioned is NOT safe at all-scams all around, beware.
August 20, 2024, 10:03:42 PM
[...]
and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.
[...]
and if all mining of btc stops btc becomes frozen in the address it is in. unable to move digital across nations.
[...]
Theoretically possible, but highly unlikely. It's not a global on/off switch. If miners start shutting down, the difficulty will drop, giving more incentive for smaller miners to start mining, thus resuming the 1 block / 10 min target. It's a self-regulating closed loop. Can't speed it up, can't slow it down. It's been beating steadily for 15 years now.
well much like gold or silver or oil companies will not full stop.
the difference is btc in a wallet fully needs active mining to stay "alive"
the oz of gold in the bar in my house does not need active mining to stay a gold bar.
So when supply + demand people say it's all in demand for price. it is not the same fundamentals as the demand for gold.
btc supply new and old needs active mining
gold supply new needs active mining old does not.
I think this is basically ignored in loyce and jjg's models for btc price.
mining of btc can 2x affect supply which surely will affect demand directly much more than gold.
yeah to think mining losing profit and dropping from 660eh to 330eh won't be a direct affect on price is quite naive.
last time mining dropped 50% due to china price dropped 50%. and mining lead the drop in price.
oh and a nice bart as price drops to 59k
Reading all this made me think that you think that mining is some kind of a weakness for bitcoin.
I would say, NOT as some energy sources for bitcoin are essentially free, like geothermal or hydro.
Yes, a miner in NJ may shut down due to costs, but El salvador would continue (using volcano power).
I personally think it would be terrible if only POS remain.
That said, efforts are underway to 'mobilize" already mined bitcpoin.
The question is: does already mined bitcoin has (in it) some kind of "stored energy"?
M. Saylor talks about it, and if it is so, there could be a smart way to use that "energy".
Personally, I don't think that bitcoin should be 'frozen' even if current mining activity (at some future point) is low.
The question is how to do it.
interesting a weakness or a problem yet to be solved.
i look and scrypt with its Ltc+doge+ now belles coins and I see doge rewards never ending. I see doge with a perfectly predictable shrinking inflation rate.I also see zelle as free and safe for US use and i think btc is going to need to solve long term revenues for miners.
well mike saylor is clever maybe he models a way to unlock mined coins.
August 20, 2024, 10:01:15 PM
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