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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 38. (Read 26502539 times)

legendary
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1819
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1819
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 3304
Merit: 8633
Crypto Swap Exchange
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
@ biodom


you are correct we are flat or retracing whoa is us.

must be trump’s nominations scared off buddy and the rally.


could it be honey badger is having some trump fud?
legendary
Activity: 2520
Merit: 3038
Buddy you OK?
Wall observers are fretting
Saw you skip a beat









#haiku
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
The four year bitcoin cycle is dead, IMO.
This time is different:
1. Purchase of $MSTR completely new supplies
2. $MSTR copy-cats/other corporate buyers
3. State buying/establishing $BTC reserves
4. A massively pro-Bitcoin administration in the US for the next 4 years
$BTC is only going to go up from here, with some volatility.
X
Nah, it probably isn't.
Once the price overextends into the "stratosphere", it would still go down more than 50%..maybe 60 or even 70%.
If the peak would be at 135K, then it might not decline more than 50%-->67K
Alternatively, if the peak would be at around 230-320K, then maybe down 65% to 80-112K if I would be optimistic.
Still, it would be an advance to an "expected" (from prior cycles) 70% decline.
Personally, I still think that we would decline 70%, but from where would make a big difference...but something like 60-75K at the next bottom might be a realistic number, with 40.5K (coming from a "low" high of 135K) being the harshest and most tearful scenario. The latter would almost completely "kill" MSTR (if not the stock, then certainly their 42B bitcoin yield strategy).

I largely agree with your  statement about no end to the 4-year cycle, but it seems my reasoning is similar even though your various scenarios come off as a bit awkward and your proclamation of the death of Saylor/MSTR strategies seems a bit doomie and gloomie.

I doubt we even need to get into specific scenarios or get all doomie and gloomie about specific scenarios, yet I think that we still could acknowledge that no matter the size or the players if the market is allowed to be somewhat free and open (which it seems bitcoin mostly is, even if there are efforts to "tame" it), and like you suggested, we are going to have times of overexuberance that takes us way beyond any kind of reasonableness and likely no one is really able to stop it and perhaps there are also instigators who work towards exacerbating such overexuberance for their own purposes of rug pulling or whatever might be the case when they might be able to get some insider knowledge regarding the level of overexuberance or their ability to play the market more when it gets into such an overextended state.  

There likely are even limits to how much any player can really play the market and sometimes might even get caught on the wrong side of their own efforts in thinking that they can play or control the market, so the casualties might not always be clear or even they might end up being some of the players who were manipulating end up becoming casualties.  It can be quite difficult to know how the details play out, even though it seems difficult to currently proclaim the death of the 4-year cycle prior to any real evidence of such, beyond theories of such (which we saw those theories of the death of the cycle at every previous cycle too).


Not really...all I know is that levered plays almost never work in a long run.
I will be watching it closely as you can make inordinate amounts when the lever plays collapse.
They don't even need to fully collapse, but, say, MSTR should have the market cap of about $1 bil or so vs $72b right now IF btc drops to 42K (their current buy-in price), which it could if coming off of the potential 135K peak. 42K buy-in price would mean that at 42K btc MSTR NAV=0. Of, course, they have the other business plus some cash, hence the 1bil value at 42K.
However, MSTR could go much, much higher in the mean time, I'll grant you that.
I strongly suspect that MSaylor will also play with bitcoin ETF options to further pyramid his leverage, especially IF in-kind redemption/creation would be allowed in ETFs.
He even put this point (re in-kind) as another aim in the institutional adoption (see the end of his Cantor Fitzerald presentation that I linked before).

We are easing off the "pedal" rn.
How do you know?
The proof is IN the pudding-check out the last 24-48hr: flat city...very much like a car when you stop pushing on a gas pedal, ain't it?
legendary
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1819
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
hero member
Activity: 1078
Merit: 566
As Bitcoin roaring high above 90k$ in November 2024, it's perfect time to have some hot stuff in winters. Anyone interested in guessing what food is that and from which part of the world?


Oh man, We don't get good options for chapli kabab in Delhi. Afghans living in Lajpat Nagar are life saviors in such cases.

In Pakistan, it's a local food as Pakhtoons living in KPK (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) province are proficient in making these kebabs. If Lajpat Nagar is far away from you then be my guest to enjoy these Kebabs.

Anyone interested in guessing what food is that and from which part of the world?

This is naan bread, one of the favorite foods of the Indian subcontinent.
Issued in public interest: In local languages, it's Naan and Bread is an English translation so "Naan" or simply calling it "Bread" is good to go. Otherwise, it would be like saying "Bread Bread" or "Tea Tea" similar to "Chai Tea".  


I would just like to add image I shared is of 'simple Naan', there are lots of varieties of Nan available like:

Rogni Nan https://foodbreak.pk/product/roghni-naan/

As Bitcoin roaring high above 90k$ in November 2024, it's perfect time to have some hot stuff in winters. Anyone interested in guessing what food is that and from which part of the world?



Looks tasty!
Funny enough we made a really hot chicken curry yesterday for dinner (with looooads of chili) and we make our own naan to it and some cucumber yoghurt sour cream sauce to tame the spicyness. That is you eat the curry until your throat smokes, then you chill it with a piece of naan and some of the cream on it. I can really recommend to make naan yourself - it's really no big deal you just need to work out the right timing for flipping them.

Unfortunately I can't post a photo of it, but our naan looked really good like yours. I am not in the habit of taking photos of my dinner - I am more the seefood type (= I see food, I eat it). <- Yes, I watched Alien and I liked the androids jokes a lot (the rest of the movie not so much).

Todays food porn will be pasta aglio e olio (ofcourse too with loads of chili).


Anything made at home is far much better then what you buy outside since you are sure you are eating clean food. If you have Clay Oven at home then there is no reason to buy outside Nan. My wife used to make Nan at home during COVID days and I was comfertable with there taste and freshness.
I was carving for Bar B Q for last few days and today I did that at home. It was good experience apart from the fact that I have a small Bar B Q grill which I will upgrade in next session.
legendary
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1819
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
~snip~
I don't know if we fully realize what good times  have come for BTC. 4-5 years ago we dreamed of ETFs and that one day the US would consider Bitcoin as similar to gold. ETFs have been a reality for a long time now, and the huge influence in this market is evident. I generally do not approve of Trump as a person and because of his policy towards Ukraine. But it is a fact that this is the first president to speak out in favor of Bitcoin and promising to make it a national reserve asset. This is already happening in the state of Pennsylvania. Coincidentally or not, it was precisely the state that decided the battle in his favor. I think it's safe to say that Trump won thanks to the votes of bitcoin holders as well. What's next - first for it to actually happen in the US. If the bill to buy 1 million bitcoins is approved, it will have a "huuuge" (Wink)  impact on the market. Soon after, Europe and China will follow suit. I am absolutely convinced that Germany will one day buy the same bitcoins that it sold at many times higher price. All this makes me happy and proud that hodlers like us, the WO gang, have always been visionaries and envisioned things long before they happened. And this is rewarded with the profit we have.
Trump is completely unpredictable in this case because he was the president of the US from 2016 to 2020 and at that time he said that Bitcoin was a scam - and towards the end of his term he passed some very unfavorable laws for Bitcoin which were then mostly revoked by the Biden administration, and it should also be taken into account that futures and spot ETFs were approved precisely during the mandate of the Biden administration.

Trump doesn't have to "thank" anyone except those with big wallets who financed his campaign, and ordinary people served the purpose of voting anyway, and for the last time as Trump promised them.

Even if the US starts buying BTC for its reserves, I don't believe that the EU would follow that example, let alone China. The ECB with Lagarde at the head has an extremely negative attitude towards Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general, while China with its communist ideology does not want anything it cannot control, and even less something in which the US will have a large share.

As for Germany, it was not the German government that seized or sold BTC, it was a German province where the seizure took place, and they only followed the law in liquidating the seized funds. In addition, I think that the member states of the Eurozone cannot make any investments of this type without the ECB - a few years ago, the question of selling part of Italy's gold arose, considering that at that time they were the third country in the world in terms of gold reserves. As far as I remember, the ECB commented that selling gold to refinance debts is not an option.


Wow  Lucius.  You really believe that ECB and some of the other supposedly bitcoin hostile jurisdictions are not going to be forced into changing their tune.

Game theory is a bitch, and they should not be so dumb as to ignore game theory for too long.. and sure there are always going to be winners and losers.. early adopters and laggarts.. and it is not going to be exactly black and white, even though the earlier that anyone comes around to bitcoin (even covertly), the better they are likely going to end up.. .. and yeah, maybe some of them are talking down bitcoin while they are secretly accumulating it, too?


Forced by whom? Will Trump threaten the EU again with Putler's orcs and North Korean idiots who are already dying on the Russian front? The US and the EU are completely different when it comes to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general - that's why the resistance in the EU will be much greater, especially because there are different national interests within the EU that can hardly be found to agree on much more banal things.

Who knows, maybe some of them play a double game and invest in BTC while on the other hand they attack it with all means - but the fact is that the average European does not have a very positive opinion of Bitcoin considering that the majority of European politicians are extremely negative towards Bitcoin.

You've probably already read it, but this is the agenda that the ECB and almost the entire EU have been pushing for years.

Bitcoin is being artificially propped up and should not be legitimised by regulators or financial companies as it is more akin to gambling, the European Central Bank said on Wednesday..."Since Bitcoin appears to be neither suitable as a payment system nor as a form of investment, it should be treated as neither in regulatory terms and thus should not be legitimised," Bindseil and Schaaf said.
In an email to Reuters, Bindseil said cryptocurrencies would be best framed as betting or gambling by regulators.
The authors added in the blog that the involvement of asset managers, payment service providers, insurers and banks with crypto "suggests to small investors that investments in bitcoin are sound".

This is why trump will support putin to attack europe. europe in general will need to make some very hard choices.

and they have a short window to decide if they will step up.

Basically they need to ship nukes to ukraine and feed ukraine tons of weapons.

they need to kick the usa out of nato and pay for nato invite Finland 🇫🇮 Sweden 🇸🇪 ukraine 🇺🇦 into nato.

Or fold and abandon Ukraine 🇺🇦 to Putin.

Its sad to see the amount of USA 🇺🇸 people that welcome the idea that Russia 🇷🇺 should whale 🐋 and crush the Ukraine
I have quite a bit of friends here in the USA that want USA 🇺🇸 RUSSIA 🇷🇺 CHINA 🇨🇳 TO become the next axis of power.

Tough to hear them say it. But not much I can do.
full member
Activity: 255
Merit: 209

What is Michael Saylor cooking?


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legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 7340
Farewell, Leo
my biggest regret of BTC is being born in 1957 not 1987.


Figuring out bitcoin as a kid was like sort of reborn.
legendary
Activity: 4354
Merit: 3614
what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?
JJG your post was too small so I expanded the size of it a bit.

um, thanks?

maybe you should just stick with checking in on chartbuddy?

 Grin

legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23
my biggest regret of BTC is being born in 1957 not 1987.

Hope you all hodl deep and long  and it grows to 1 dollar a sat.

Being born in 1957 and being here reading these lines,  make you even more memorable.
You are young enough to have frontrun BlackRock in the run of the Digital Gold.
It is something I will have engraved in my tombstone.

"Here lies fillippone
stacker,
hodler,
frontran BlackRock"

legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
Observing 90,697@Stamp.

Once again, you are not bullish enough.



Micheal Saylor is calling for BTC to be 6.22x Gold in 2045.

This means that BTC is worth 5 millions in current dollar terms.
Insane.



my biggest regret of BTC is being born in 1957 not 1987.

Hope you all hodl deep and long  and it grows to 1 dollar a sat.
legendary
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1819
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 1612
Merit: 1608
精神分析的爸
As Bitcoin roaring high above 90k$ in November 2024, it's perfect time to have some hot stuff in winters. Anyone interested in guessing what food is that and from which part of the world?



Looks tasty!
Funny enough we made a really hot chicken curry yesterday for dinner (with looooads of chili) and we make our own naan to it and some cucumber yoghurt sour cream sauce to tame the spicyness. That is you eat the curry until your throat smokes, then you chill it with a piece of naan and some of the cream on it. I can really recommend to make naan yourself - it's really no big deal you just need to work out the right timing for flipping them.

Unfortunately I can't post a photo of it, but our naan looked really good like yours. I am not in the habit of taking photos of my dinner - I am more the seefood type (= I see food, I eat it). <- Yes, I watched Alien and I liked the androids jokes a lot (the rest of the movie not so much).

Todays food porn will be pasta aglio e olio (ofcourse too with loads of chili).
legendary
Activity: 4256
Merit: 8551
'The right to privacy matters'
legendary
Activity: 2352
Merit: 1819
1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 16328
Fully fledged Merit Cycler - Golden Feather 22-23

What is Michael Saylor cooking?


-.-- --- ..-  .- .-. .  -. --- -  -... ..- .-.. .-.. .. ... ....  . -. --- ..- --. ....
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