Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 41. (Read 26511183 times)

Enough buddy.

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BTC will rule the world

What says you

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I don't claim to have such a BIG brain about how these various trading product play off each other, yet even though MSTR is a derivative of bitcoin, there is still a need to buy the underlying bitcoin, and there are a variety of other BTC related markets and products that affects BTC's price and liquidity.  You go ahead and believe whatever you want, the relation of the MSTR product(s) to BTC just sounds too narrow in terms of even being able to have as much of an impact on BTC prices as you are proclaiming it to have.

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it's just a correction sometimes I hope to cross all the limits very soon. we are seeing $100K in next Sunday.


Source. make by canva

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It's Avatar size you can use bitcointalk forum.

Why not? his reporting param is now bitcoin "yield", which is how many bitcoins (or fractions of) he has per MSTR share.
You can increase this yield by buying more btc and not caring much about the speed of btc advance as long as you maintain the premium in the stock vs btc value.
That premium is currently more than 3X.

that was probably McAfee's (RIP) dream, but it did not come to pass this way...
we shall see...maybe a 10% probability for that 7 fig so soon.

Even though MSTR is more volatile than bitcoin due to it serving as a kind of leveraged bitcoin, your theory does not sound likely to me.

I don't know how you fellas don't see it, but MSaylor is "sucking" out the upside from bitcoin.
He is 'skimming the cream off the top' so to speak.

Additionally, it is beneficial to him to reduce the bitcoin's upside and enhance the MSTR premium thereby..so he can sell more shares to buy more bitcoin without affecting the price of bitcoin much.

Notice the last day: btc is up 1.2%, MSTR is up 12%.
Hmmm

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I largely agree with all of the points of your post, except for the above, I would clarify that I have a personal practice of keeping some coins on exchanges, and over the years, the amounts have gotten smaller and smaller, and I tend to think of the amount of BTC that I have on exchanges and/or with other third parties as a kind of percent or a bearable percent that I can deal with and I have always maintained some of that..which was quite embarrassingly high in 2016 and 2017 which caused me some issues and which currently for me I would consider my on exchange and/or 3rd party exposure to be somewhere in the ballpark of less 5% to 10%, even though currently I have right around 5% on exchanges.

My rule is probably not even very strict.. since there is individual variance that may well depend on learning things... which can take a while for people (including yours truly) to learn things.. especially new things that I did not already know.. (go figure?).

I think that newbies getting into bitcoin might start out with BTC price exposure rather than directly holding their private keys, and surely there is a bit of a learning curve with various self-custody options, so even though I am a proponent of self-custody, and I think that bitcoin gets its value (and its freedom power) from self-custody even if not everyone is doing it, there are quite a few forms of custodial services that still might be reasonably employed by normie newbie individuals, and starting out with bitcoin by getting price exposure through various custodial services, including but not limited to Bitcoin Spot ETFs seems better to me than not getting into bitcoin at all. 

There are degrees of empowerment.

Even though I don't own any bitcoin spot ETFs, and I probably would not buy into them any unless my already existing 401k holdings were to allow me to convert some of that value to Bitcoin Spot ETFs.. .. though I still might not do it based on my already existing large exposure to bitcoin through direct ownership.. .. even though sometimes it could pique some curiosity if such a BTC spot ETF thing were to come available to me through a tax free retirement investment vehicle that I already have in place.


I deleted my original response.. ..

Maybe I am just confused why there would be a need to make more money by employing potentially complicated financial products if we are fairly sure that we have decently good odds that the BTC price is already going to be going up 47% or more for the year... maybe the odds are greater than 50/50 for that outcome, then why add an extra layer of complexity?

I am not going to do it anyhow.. since I kind of like where the BTC price already is.. so even another 10%, 20% or so is already icing on the cake, and sure don't get me wrong, since I already think that there are pretty good odds that we are going even higher than that this coming year, and there could be decently good odds (perhaps greater than 3%) that we could get $1 million or more BTC prices by the end of 2025 or perhaps into early 2026, so even if the odds are not great, I cannot see myself wanting even more..

We already have a good thing going, so why do I need even more?  even though I am not going to complain if higher than expected prices end up playing out.

Currently it is starting to look like we might never see sub $70k BTC prices again.. sure it is not guaranteed, but I am having trouble figuring out how the 200-WMA is going to get drug up to those levels.. since it is still ONLY moving up right around $40 per day... and it is just barely above $41k right now... but yeah, lots of ongoing hype.. and yeah, maybe once Trump gets sworn in then we will get a dump.. but will it get below $70k?   Maybe we will have spot prices in the $120k to $180k range by then.. that would be 30% to 95% higher than current prices.  I am still having troubles considering how I would want even more than that.

Maybe I am just being fuddy duddy about trading instruments, when I personally cannot see any reasonable purpose for such... but hey, to each their own.


Back in the good ole days, I can recall that you used to publish these as the 2x trend.

My how times have changed!!!




I am not sure.

It seems Back means that by this cycle, then we would get to $1 million plus by the end of 2025 or perhaps early 2026, so that is around 11x from current BTC prices.  That is a lot, but those are still not crazy numbers, including what has been done in previous cycles.

Yeah, right now we are already 30% above the 2021 ATH.. so it is more difficult to use current prices as our jumping off point.

Maybe if we used $27k as our jumping off point, then $1 million would be 37x .. and yeah, I am a bit bothered by peak prices anyhow, especially since it may well be difficult to sustain something like $1 million, yet it becomes more difficult to correct back below $200k or so too.. so maybe the most we would get is a 60% to 70% correction as some kind of a spike and maybe not sustainable downity.. .. but yeah, it is difficult to know... .. even my 0.63 plus bitcoin would be doing pretty good at those levels of BTC prices.

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That guy's (bad or lack of) character is absurdly easy to spot. He strips himself naked in front of everyone and doesn't even notice. It would be an amusement, if there wasn't that strong feeling of secondhand embarrassment.

Transparency is a feature of the bitcoin blockchain once you know which addresses are associated with a person or an entity, yet there are still quite a few ways to achieve privacy, even with public companies there aren't any current requirements for them to show all of their BTC addresses.

Even in bitcoin, I doubt that there is consensus in regards to how to get exchanges to show their reserves (the BTC that they hold), even though there are some exchanges that have chosen to implement proof of reserves, yet there still isn't any kind of industry standard.


In part, that was my criticism, since I would have had hardly considered our dip from mid $93ks to $88k-ish to be hardly anything important, and surely not in any mud... Get us into the $50ks I might start to come around to the idea of stirring mud.




I doubt that quantities are very relevant since at these prices, $4k is hardly even 5% price moves.


You might be right.. even though it seems like a lot of noise to this here cat.... and many of us know if there is a lot of price move, then the order books go a bit empty, so then it causes the BTC price to move around a lot more rapidly and frequently it will take time for the order books to fill back up.


I find them a bit limiting for the kinds of things that I would like to say, even though sure it is possible that every once in a while I could attempt a more artsy-fartsy presentation style.


I would hardly characterize an investor and a HODLer as greedy, even if we might consider someone who might choose to put 10% of his income into bitcoin, so perhaps over 10 years he invested 1 whole year of his income into bitcoin. 

So let's say he invested $100  per week over 10 years, and that would be about $52,000 invested and nearly 37 BTC.

How is that Greedy?

You are implying that he should have already started to sell at some point?

Perhaps this guy was was fairly young to the workforce in 2013 .. maybe late 20s or early 30s.. and he was not really sure if he would be able to just retire from his bitcoin early as he was accumulating it, so he just continued to accumulate it, and so after 10 years, he might be having a bit of a dilemma whether to stop working or not.. or choose some other kind of work.. Is that greedy?


I personally believe that having nearly 37 BTC would put such a guy at fuck you status even if his aim of a lifestyle would be to raise to want to start withdrawing $100k per year.  Sure he may well have the dilemma of buying health insurance which will add more to his costs.

Even if we use the 200 WMA as the valuation of his BTC stash, with 37 BTC, he still has right over $1.5 million in valuation.  Personally, I think he would be o.k. withdrawing around $100k per year or $8,333 per month.  Would that be greedy?


FTFY