Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4335. (Read 26713125 times)

Well, it is your choice if you want to believe that bitcoin is so correlated to various macro-economic matters such as Covid or various recent or ongoing economic responses to covid.

There are many of us who have been involved in bitcoin a decently long time who either reject such correlations to various contemporary macro happenings or try not to get too wrapped up into various correlations that likely do not exist even close to as much as mainstream media and other disinformational sources of information seem to want to lead us to believe.  

Yes, you can zoom out and you can see  that there may well be times of short-term bitcoin price correlations with various macro-dynamics in the world, but if you cannot see, appreciate that there is more going on in bitcoin than some of those seemingly short-term price correlations, then it seems that you might be a wee bit out of touch with what is bitcoin.  

And, if you recognize the validity and credibility of some of the other bitcoin price appreciation models you might learn to not put so much weight into either claims of correlation to such macro factors, even if you might be able to see them on the charts for various short periods of time.  There is a need to zoom out in order to NOT get distracted by some of these shorter-term claims of correlation.

You have been in bitcoin long enough that you should have figured out some of these matters by now, and even the fact that you are into bitcoin mining (and surely knowledgeable about the mining topic in a variety of ways) would cause some of us to presume that you would not have been so easily mislead into those kinds of correlation presumptions.

Of course, your history also shows that you had failed/refused to appreciate various bitcoin fundamentals in the past, and several times you have both acknowledged your failure/refusal to appreciate various bitcoin fundamentals in the past and you have even proclaimed that you have fixed some of your erroneous presumptions of the past and have become more aggressive in respects to your current bitcoin accumulation and investing, but surely on a regular basis you tend to show that you remain somewhat luke warm in regards to your own confidence levels in terms of bitcoin's upside potentials and even what seems to be its asymmetrical bet that is not exactly correlated to a variety of mainstream current happenings.



Of course you can think that and you can continue to fail/refuse to adequately and sufficiently prepare for UP.  One way of failing/refusing to prepare for UP is to not buy/accumulate enough, and another way is to sell too much too early.  Historically, we have seen those kinds of failure/refusal to adequately prepare for UP conduct on a repeated basis.



Hopefully you are not failing/refusing to adequately and sufficiently prepare again.. Yes, I have seen that you have been buying on a daily basis for the past month or so and plan to continue to do it.. so there is no way to really know your situation as well as you know it...

And, surely, we should realize that even if BTC's price action does not go up as much as expected in the next quarter or even few quarters, I doubt that it would be prudent to expect that the cycles are broken, but hey, you can believe whatever you like.


I am not going to prematurely negate the best models that we have, and surely we should be taking any model with a decently large grain of salt and both financially and psychologically, we have our own personal responsibilities to be sufficiently and adequately prepared for either BTC price direction..


It seems that I should not be accusing you as being underallocated in bitcoin then....

This is the part that can be so difficult when trying to figure out both the level of allocation and also the extent to which some reallocation needs to take place.

I would not count house as cash.. and I would not count other investments, such as equities to be cash either, even though they are very connected to some of the ideas about no place to store value and that the dollar is losing value... so yeah, people are putting their dollars into real estate and into equities... Of course for any newbie, I would be recommending to get off of zero and get to 1-10% into bitcoin, and so if any of us is in bitcoin for a while, even if we might have started out on the higher end of the 1-10% initial investment range, I had not ever really recommended reallocating out of bitcoin in any meaningful way as long as the increase in the value from the bitcoin was due to price appreciation.. however, if bitcoin were to be your only investment asset besides dollars, equities, property or some other asset classes, then there may well be some justifications to diversify somewhat out of bitcoin so that all of your eggs are not in one basket... but yeah, anyone that is already 80% in bitcoin or maybe even presumably 40% in bitcoin if they are balancing out with their spouse's investments then surely it is harder to figure out ways that they might not be allocated properly or not allocated sufficiently in BTC...

Maybe there is some kind of a need to mention my own allocations, again?  

For me, an allocation of around 13.5% in BTC in late 2014 had gone into the mid-80%'s in BTC in late 2017, and maybe into about around 45% in BTC during the lower parts of the 2018 crash and even the March 2020 liquidation event may have well caused my allocation in BTC to dip below 50%, so if I do a kind of quickie attempt at an assessment currently, then I might be able to say that in April 2021, my allocation in BTC likely was around 91%, and the drop in May through July brought my allocation down to about 87%, and recently it was back up to around 91% and even currently the percentage might be around 89% in BTC... so yeah, it is hard to say what others should do because I had frequently proclaimed that since 2013 my BTC investment had gone up several times, like maybe more than 40x to 70x depending on the measuring point, but all of my traditional investment may have gone up around 60% during that same time.  So the BTC has outperformed all of the other investments, and even if I were to assert that I could have comfortably lived off all of the other non-BTC investments, the fact that the BTC amounts to around 9x more than all of those other investments in the event that we are considering an allocation in the ballpark of 90/10 currently to constitute 9/1.

Explanation

Lakes tend to be on land too. Honestly, I'm not sure what I'd do. Taking care of property is a PITA.The little I've got is annoying enough. Maybe I should own nothing and be happy (I wouldn't be).

$46k

Bitcoin is dead!

Today We Don't
Have Any
Motivational Quotes, If You Want
To Sale, Sale!
HFSP.

So Yes, "Purple Blazes" are generally accepted as symbolizing "Private Property, Trespassers will be Shot, Survivors will be Shot Again!"
Of course blazes can be painted on fence posts but much more commonly will be painted on trees at about 10 yards spacing. The blaze faces outward from the property line, so if you are on public land and see purple blazes you are seeing the line that shalt not be crossed.

Side Note: a couple dipshit beaurocrats in VA & TN parks & recreation have decided to use purple blazes to mark specific hiking trails. These are the ideas of dumbest city boys from Nashville or Richmond who haven't the foggiest idea about the long accepted code of the trail. But as was mentioned earlier, property line blazes are usually 10"-12" in diameter where-as hiking trail blazes are usually about 3" diameter.
But in general, if you're in the woods in the south and come across other folk, smile real big and wave! This indicates "I'm supposed to be here and generally approachable if you have questions." On the other hand if you refuse to make eye contact and try to slink away, it indicates "I'm up to no good and feel guilty for being caught here." The latter will get you shot 9 times out of 8!!!

Oh, absolutely no doubt that there are fortunes to be made on stupid shit. And fortunes lost, of course. As P.T.Barnum said, "There's a sucker born every minute".

Explanation

Explanation

My arbitrarily drawn line now seems to be acting as resistance.

My fav thing about bitcoinwisdom is it remembers my last line, and then I can come back and apply confirmation bias in whatever amount that makes me feel like I am smart, to myself.

It's probably all normal and stuff, but all these stories about "red" posts, trespassers, etc. made me less interested in buying a ranch, sorry.
The lake-that's another story...eventually.

On purple paint, I haven't looked it up but have unofficially heard that it may need to be 12 inches, top to bottom to be legal. I've seen a lot of guys just throw an old tyre over a fencepost, and paint that.

Unless you're working cattle or building rodeo chutes, lots of modern fence is just little metal T-posts, stretched with woven or barbed wire. Not many square inches to the post.

Explanation

https://twitter.com/MayorConger/status/1469897847852175362?t=T1wLlTB2TLN4ZNit1b5ybA&s=19

Miami’s Bitcoin-loving mayor, Francis Suarez, told a reporter at Real Vision’s Takeover event in Las Vegas on Friday that he’s planning to take some of his 401K retirement in his favorite cryptocurrency.

The news comes a month after his reelection. Back then, the 41-year-old mayor announced he’d take his next paycheck in Bitcoin.

Source: https://decrypt.co/88098/miamis-mayor-wants-some-of-his-401k-in-bitcoin

Explanation

Yeah.. but... we have been on a pretty BIG back and forth roll recently, no? 

And would you not conclude that we are kind of antagonistic to one another in a few substantive kinds of ways in respect to the value of trading and the extent to which it is important to talk about trading strategies, no?

You cannot believe that we just invent our level of antagonism, merely for attention or whatever other benefits that we might get out engaging in the back and forths, no?

Another thing is that of course if one of us is typing, the other cannot respond until the other is done, no?


For sure there is a lot of strangeness in your above chosen words, and need I get into any details about your own strangeness - beyond just pointing it out?


You already likely realize that you have a tendency to throw out a bunch of somewhat arbitrary frameworks, and why do we need to wait and see to identify how detached from reality they seem to be.  Why would it matter if some kind of bullshit that you throw out there ends up playing out exactly like you described that it would?  From what I can see about your approach, the mere playing out of your proposed scenario would not cause the current rationale for the framework or the factual foundations to become more solid, even though of course, you could attempt to credit ur lil selfie as some kind of a sorcerer that has graduated beyond wannabe status.



I doubt that I am limited in what I "can" predict.  I just choose not to make bold ass predictions that seem to be too damned specific and seem to aspire towards sorcery status.  On the other hand, I do have some tendencies to attempt to outline probability frameworks from time to time and also to challenge some folks, such as uie pooie.. when you seem to be throwing out various kinds of nonsense that even you likely do not believe to be true, but you just want to put some kind of seemingly leadership framework out there... it would be funny if it weren't sometimes a bit too misleading and sometimes failing and refusing to account for more convincing frameworks or even sometimes you end up misquoting facts in order to try to spin your framework as being more likely than it deserves.



It's great that you have deemed yourself as some kind of expert in terms of recognizing various weaknesses that I have.


My approach is too boring for you?  That's strange.  You seem to agree with aspects of what I do which is mostly HODL.. but surely you seem to be opposed to some aspects of what I do because you seem to NOT understand or accept certain angles based on your own lack of sufficient aggressiveness in your investing strategies in the past - and so in that regard, you seem to be having some difficulties relating to certain angles.. even though on several occasions I have attempted to 'splain such dynamics to you... and then instead of attempting to actually grapple with some of the angles you assert that I am misstating personal facts or some other nonsense baloney that likely helps you to NOT grapple with how seemingly boring can actually become exciting especially when it allows you to not have to worry about managing richie status or having a sufficient richie status cushion in order to NOT have to be regretful in regards to failing/refusing to be sufficiently aggressive in the past.

Initially those speculating on the fastest growing asset class of 2021, that of digital art & collectables. Mainly from these physical markets, so not crytpo natives it seems. Turns out they weren't wrong either, as price rose from around 0.1 ETH to 50 ETH within 3 months. Even stranger is that this collection has maintained it's value for the past 4 months as many high rollers continue to buy into this society for status and access rights, while others naturally cash out huge profits. Turns out the NFT bubble in March was only the beginning, as others correctly speculated as such. It's absolutely insane really, never seen anything like it.


Yes, people are quite serious about this collection. In summary it's an NFT, gives artwork rights to holders, access to exclusive physical events, some online access, as well as generally Metaverse compatible.


I wouldn't either, also worth noting that you wouldn't be able to directly as the floor price is currently around $200K. There are index funds that poorly track the price and currently severely undervalued (by around 50%+) so I wouldn't trust their liquidity pools either. More importantly, they've already had their 500x growth against Ethereum, so unless you are corporate marketing like Adidas, film/music industry, etc, not worth it.

The developers eventually signed a deal with U2 and Madonna's manager to use the collection in music and artwork, though not sure how the copyright is going to work for that, as very experimental stuff. The collection otherwise almost "flipped" CryptoPunks as the most valuable collection  back in August, and look set to do so in the near future, given it's a society with actual use cases, as opposed to an OG collection with none.


Goes to show how costly human error can be I guess, an important lesson in life. Exhausted traders made mistakes. Bought for 1 ETH, worth at least 53 floor price, sold for 0.75 lol.

I guess you would have preferred a reply with "yeh totes dumb stuff rite", but instead I thought I'd try reply with some factual information since you asked  

Explanation

my wife is 100% stocks, and I am mostly bitcoin plus a 60/40 high growth stocks/cash (short term bonds) in "regular" portfolio.
That said, her portfolio slightly outperformed btc since four years ago exactly.
You can check yourself: QQQ is up 2.488X (392.26/157.65) since Dec 13 2017, while bitcoin is 2.346X (46522/19835).
Four years is a pretty long time, presumably a whole cycle, so spare me bias complains and talk about picking up bottoms as almost nobody can do that.
Hopefully, it would be much better going forward and if not, I might still hodl as I don't understand most stocks valuation, currently.

filthy fiat user..your offers are insulting..cheeseburgers are for tuesdays