Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4898. (Read 26609395 times)

Who is this guy? Roach-Lite?

GTFO our thread.

Several of those expectations are not bad, elliottflz65; however, I have some conceptual difficulties plugging in too many assumptions in regards to either the level of adoption or the magnitude of thew direction (outcomes of various battles that may play out)..

I am pretty sure that you are correct directionally in regards to less and less cyclical volatility, but that would not necessarily suggest that there would not be other kinds of volatility that is just not tied to previous cycles of volatility that have so far been programmed in, and really seems logical that such lessening of rewards takes away that specific kind of cyclical volatility..

And maybe it is not even too much of a stretch to presume that various kins of bitcoin adoption from individuals, institutions and governments is going to continue to increase at decently high levels and then cause bitcoin's market cap to go up and both cause less volatility but also make it much harder for anyone, even the then BIGboys, to manipulate bitcoin's price..

....but if we are presuming about magnitude, then still too many assumptions in there for me, even if some of the outlining of various UPpity scenarios are relatively fair presumptions in regards to likely ways that future bitcoin battles will play out in bitcoin's favor.....but still how much..

Is it really inevitable for Bitcoin to follow a kind of mathematical trajectory when we have human behavior in the mix, too.. including that there could be both set backs and advances that go on within short periods of time, but I am hardly convinced that the adding up of all the plusses and minuses of what could happen inevitably leads to some kind of realistic quantification of where the trajectory is going to be in terms of magnitude expectations, even if the odds seem quite great that you are directionally correct..

I would speculate that getting magnitude of bitcoin's adoption, advances and lessening of volatility correct would be more a matter than luck than something that could be predicted with any kind of high level of confidence.   

  His family shouldn't concern us.  They're not public figures.
 If you really want to know about their medical status though, all you have to do is employ them and then apparently you get to demand they get vaccinated and prove it to you so you would know it all.

It will eventually get to those absurd numbers, and by then, it won't seem as absurd anyone once it is the present and reality. And by absurd, I'm talking about the Hal Finney numbers of $10m, to the other projections that I have seen going up as high as $50m to $100m per whole coin.

We just need to live long enough to see our BTC pay for everything we would ever need (assuming we have say 1 BTC, and we don't need anything more than $50m to $100m in our lives.)

We see the matter differently... richie.. and not that we can exactly consider that you have any kind of persuasively credible perspective when it comes to something like the role of tether or its potential solvency. since you had been so easily lured into thinking that there was actual legitimacy in those fairly obvious bcash scam variants.


I stand by my earlier digg.. and sure, your further explanation puts your position into some better context.. so thanks for that.

OT: Mike. Fkn. Drop.
https://twitter.com/BrittRooted/status/1427849481551106056

Hopefully the next mayor of San Diego.

Explanation

the us gov captured by the globalist/wef...

follow the logic :

gmo = good
global one world gov = good
pedo = good
bitcoin = bad
fiat = good
experimental injection = good
trump lost with the most votes ever = true
fbi didn't cover up 911 investigations = false
only two arrest on pedogate = just
putin = bad
trump = bad
trump lost = true

etc

they are so pahtetic, who still trust them but the taiwanese corrupt gov... and of course americans too proud to accept they have been conned like little children... domesticated and captured.

edit the more I do the list the more I realize most people are like a .conf file...

It's kinda funny: I read more and more news reports about how dangerous Bitcoin (or crypto in general) is. First it was a risk for consumers to lose all their savings (as if banks care about consumers), now it's a risk "for financial stability". Central banks, "normal" banks and credit rating agencies all feel the need to share this information every couple of days.
It's never the Brrrrrrrrrrrr that's a thread to financial stability, it's always those evil Bitcoins that government can't stop, can't break, can't ban, can't freeze, can't negotiate with and can't contain!

If governments want to convince me Bitcoin is bad, it only strengthens my belief I'm on the right track. And I believe Bitcoin has much better odds for - say - 10 years from now than dollars or euros.

You should have bought back at $30k. By the time it touches the 200-week again, the price could be back to or even well above $55k.

I'm saying its a scam because if they make 1% return off non cash investments, thats 300 000 000 dollarinos a year in pure profit, plus the possibility for loans to a "cousin" or such things to finance a lavish lifestyle.  Maybe they buy bitcoin at the tune of 300m a year, maybe not.  2 points - it should be all cash or cash equivalent - it isnt -- and I do have a philosophical exception against stablecoins since I value all shitcoins vs bitcoin, i.e. ethereum is worth 0.067 btc, not some usd number therefore I have no use for any stablecoin.
Ok another point, 3 -- if they get say 10-20% of all Commercial Paper outstanding in the USA, and there is a crash, shouldnt USDT outstanding values go down as people sell and withdraw?  Then they may be forced to liquidate all of that at once before they come due, crashing the price and making companies unable to issue new commercial paper, killing liquidity and causing a serious financial stress which the central bank will have to step in. Even maybe taking a loss on that.  IF they do take a loss, then how do they pay back the USDT ?  I wouldnt have any sympathy for people on the hook though.
We all have our opinions, but insinuating I am a no-coiner because I am talking shit about an altcoin  
 
When central bank stablecoin, thus killing usdc, usdt ?  I'll stick to bitcoin thanks

So I find myself constantly musing the paths forward...

We could follow a rational, predictable (in hindsight) curve that just keeps grinding away, and when you zoom out just looks like a smooth ramp up.  The fact that the higher we go (especially from a logarithmic basis) the more it takes to move us supports this.  It has the fact that the patient will be rewarded, and there can be many dead bodies along the way of people "glad to get out before that last crash".  As bitcoin gradually monetizes.

Or we could reach some tipping point where the growth is explosive and dumbfounding.  A point at which the early herd is pouring in and they are able to overcome the logarithmic bias because of the ridiculously small float in real terms that bitcoin has.  This also leaves dead bodies along the way of people who were counting on the "cycle" to just keep repeating itself.

Adoption curves favor the latter.  And because price is the only metric that really matters in Bitcoin an argument can be made that the price will directly reflect adoption.  Because the more people use it, the more things are priced in it, the more it gets stuck in the hands of holders and the smaller that float becomes.  Then the ONLY way to loosen up some of the  float is to put the price up to a level that the people willing to see... do loosen up.  And it's that positive feedback loop Satoshi mentioned.

I go back and forth...  But I WANT that second road.  Because i am not young.  And that is how I have chosen to play my cards.

I think the biggest factor to consider is when we reach that 0.1% of Bitcoin because that is when we should see stability of the price. If you think about it the volatility of Bitcoin is because it has frequent injections of Bitcoin into the circulation of the market this is done by block rewards and then you have low levels of transactions (when you compare to other mainstream currencies) and Bitcoin is still new being just over 10 years old. When we reach 2048 that is when the block rewards do not inject as much Bitcoin into circulation, the currency is now established and is not new yet and the majority of the world will be invested in Bitcoin or using it which will allow us to reduce the amount of volatility we see today. We should then see more people using Bitcoin for its intended purpose as a currency instead of a reserve currency. Most products will hopefully we able to be bought with Bitcoin and Bitcoin would be challenging or already taken over as a mainstream currency. Hopefully by then centralized banks are no longer existing.

Explanation

This year we will see 90% of the bitcoin supply mined already. Between now and 99%, which is in the year 2035 there will be a few halvings, and I think the mother of all happens somewhere in the middle. Past that, there's not much left to make any significant effect.

By the year 2048, we have 99.9% of supply. The next 100 years to the year 2140 (or as some predict maybe even earlier, but just a few years) is a 0.1% increase to 100% of all bitcoin supply.

But we also know price does not immediately follow these milestones, it may take some time for these numbers to sink in before people, retail, and institutional investors and even countries to buy in.

As you are a little bit the geniuses of this forum (below the code makers of course) but way more informed, what do you know about the family of Anthony Fauci?

Please feel free to join this post with your updates and comments, to let the flows of the wall clean (I know you do all the time only bs here, but some more awake sometimes drink here...


Thx...

I think it's specific for whatever things.. I like leather too. I appreciate fine leather goods, wallets, bags, shoes, straps (some weightlifting straps are leather, and all good weightlifting belts are 10mm to 13mm thick leather.)

But for practical purposes, I wear rubber shoes. My old military boots had steel toes in them. I understand today, you can get them with hard plastic inserts or composite toes. For my every day belt (which I rarely wear) I like those nylon strap ratchet things, which are designed to be able to hold heavy things on your waist, particularly firearms and accessories.

I guess it depends. You can dress on occasion. But I like to be practical and use those "artificial" materials. I may not need it, but I want stuff that are rigid and won't degrade.

the morning wall report

dyor

1h
testing upward boundary of a local downward channel



4h



D
local bottoming congruency observed

stronghands

I am just saying "great minds think alike".  I think he might be right... and have been saying it for over a year.  Never claimed to be the originator of the idea, but i did come to the conclusion fairly independently.  Never been a Dan Held acolyte, but I think he was early on with all the "supercycle" stuff.

I think Willy's take is a little more nuanced.  It does not completely throw out the 4 year cycle thing, but more sort of dampens it.  I personally think the halvings will still have some impact, but I believe the early roller coaster days are a thing of the past to *some* extent.  But there is even nuance there.  I could say insterad of 80-90% pullbacks we could see 50-60, and then less etc.  And instead of one big parabola and one big crash we could see gentler more frequent waves.  As well as the possibility of a really crazy upward push thrown in...  I think the quadrennial bitcoin cycle will become less and less of a "thing' as adoption increases.  This makes a lot of sense because of both the lessened actual value of the next halvings (50->25 is a way bigger drop in nominal terms than 6.25->3.125) as well as the larger field of players will also create more liquidity and lead to less SHOCKS.

My thesis in bullet points:

• Halving impact is reducing
• Magnitude of waves will reduce*
• Frequency of waves will increase
• *Possible one more really big UP wave (and possibly the mother of all of them)

Where we are heading now    Bitcoin dominance decreasing ?