Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4902. (Read 26609399 times)

Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon.


I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC).

Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon.


I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC).

... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?

Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t

I just have my side to be on…..

Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)

hey don't be a panzy (panzy fuck), bro, and argue about %%.
Believe me, JJG can take it..and much more.
he/it is not destructible, just like Bender.

Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.

I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.

So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?

Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.

The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:

[00.50]above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million  - most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2.5% odds

[07.25]$600k to $800k  - 2nd most bullish of scenarios  -   about 4.25% odds

[15.00]$300k to $600k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 7.25% odds

[27.50]$100k to $300k  - normal range bullish  -   about 12.5% odds

[40.50]$65k to $100k  - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top  -   about 13% odds

[55.00]$55k to $65k  - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top  -   about 14.5% odds

[73.00]$current price to $55k  - relatively bearish  -   about 18% odds

-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible  -   about 28% odds

I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.

Sure, you can plan out in more narrow expectations, that is your choice.

I am not sure about whether I had considered all scenarios in 2017, but in 2016/2017 I had been conjecturing that we were going to top out in the $3k to $5k range scenario.. and perhaps shoot beyond (just hoping for the best) but of course, you know that we ended up going to $20k. but at the same time, I had revised my sell on the way up plan in order that I was selling way more on the way up because I had decided that I did not want to sell a lot of BTC.. even though the BTC price shot up quite a bit beyond my expectations.

So even my memory is failing me, and maybe I have to look back at some of my posts from that time, because by the time that the $20k top came, I did not consider that the top was yet in.. so who knows the extent that any of that matters, if at all?

Of course, this time around we could consider varying ranges and more bullish and less bullish scenarios.

The various tops would have varying likelihoods of playing out such as my SOMA calculations:

[00.50]above $1.5 million  - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios  -   about .5% odds

[03.00]$800k to $1.5 million  - most bullish of scenarios  -   about 2.5% odds

[07.25]$600k to $800k  - 2nd most bullish of scenarios  -   about 4.25% odds

[15.00]$300k to $600k  - Moderately highly bullish  -   about 7.25% odds

[27.50]$100k to $300k  - normal range bullish  -   about 12.5% odds

[40.50]$65k to $100k  - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top  -   about 13% odds

[55.00]$55k to $65k  - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top  -   about 14.5% odds

[73.00]$current price to $55k  - relatively bearish  -   about 18% odds

-UP-----------
=== 73+28=101%
-DOWN-------
[28.00]down from here - most bearish - but possible  -   about 28% odds

I am not sure if I should have all of those odds add up to 100%, but just for comprehensiveness sake, I tallied them up in such a way.

Yeah, BTC is way over $50k right now, I agree.