Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4901. (Read 26609375 times)

Not those that count.

Explanation

Coming out with more dumbass theories about correlation that does not exist.  

Fuck Covid and its purported correlation... king daddy gives not shits (nor vomits)



For sure, he must be stealing your "original" ideas.  He's probably reading the WO to get your intricate details...  


Hi Willy......  or do you prefer Mr. Woo?

It sounds almost like saying Mr. Wwwwwwwwweeeeeeeeeee......


 

Explanation

Yes.. but you are not even trying to be helpful, and furthermore you seem to be presuming something to be broken when it is not.

Hard to take you serious under those circumstances, no?


But I am mortal.. so there is that angle.


Of course, historically we have had the BTC price touching upon the 200-week moving average around every 4 years, so surely, if you were correct about the end of the bull market, then the 200-week moving average would relatively imminent in coming, but if you are prematurely subscribing to the end of the bull run then it could take a whole hell of a long time for either the 200-week moving average to be touched upon and it may also might not be touched upon completely.. The BTC price could end up correcting around 20%, 40% or even 60% higher than the 200-week moving average and then you end up not having any bitcoin based on your pretty lame-ass gambling efforts.

Furthermore, I don't have any real problem with your link to the 200-week MA heatmap, and you likely realize that the 200-week moving average is a wee bit of a lagging indicator.. so the flattening of the most recent slope at the top is not really accounting very well for our most recent three weeks of moving up from $30k to $45k - which spot price is going from 2x above the 200-week moving average to 3x above the 200-week moving average, so accordingly the slope of the 200-week moving average is going to return to angling more UPpity - except if the BTC prices were to fall back down and go lower.. which is also kind of part of your erroneous bear theory.. which seems to be out of touch with actual bitcoin price dynamics and where we likely happen to be in this particular bull portion of the cycle.

So you are taking a decently-strong minority position, and hoping that you are correct that BTC had entered into a bear market. .and part of your hope is to try to talk your position into reality... such as in this thread.. hahahahaha  good luck with that. you are going to need it, especially when you seem to be so damned wrong... - that is if we could even trust that you were so dumb as to really do what you said, including being so greedy as to play with your whole stash in such a way..  

But sure in the end, what you actually did might not even matter so much when we are dealing with relatively poor-ass fucks like you who have stashes of less than 0.5BTC and they are presenting their market play as if they were big ballers, and they are not... and when they should just be stacking sats like a normie rather than fucking around with trading their BTC stash based on their own invented and lame theories.

Anyhow, let me suggest that you are presuming a kind of 2017 rapid correction based on BTC prices going up to $65k.. but a more realistic scenario is that BTC prices had recently gone into something that would have been closer to the 2013 scenario.. so you see how that 2013 scenario played out..

In 2013, we had a March 2013 BTC price of around $70 and a 200-week moving average of less than $10, and that would have been like you selling on the way up to $65k and selling at $55k, when the 2000-week moving average was around $12k.. so in 2013, the spot price did not get back down to touching the 200-week moving average until late 2014 - but by then the BTC price had already gone up to $20k and come back down to $200 when it touched the 200 week moving average and was touching the 200-week moving average for most of 2015 before it started to move back above..

In other words, your sell price of $55k is like selling at $70 and you are no way guaranteed that the 200-week moving average may well end up moving way higher than your $55k sales price (assuming that you are not lying) by the time the BTC price moves back down to the 200-week moving average.. perhaps in the $80k to $100k arena by the time that it comes back down to touch.. and for sure none of us know how the prices are going to playout.. so you seem to be likely missing opportunities when you already failed/refused to buy back when the BTC price dipped down to lower $30ks and upper $20ks..

Sucks to be you.. and talking your nocoiner book.

Yeah but he rode that pump, and got out.  Hes going to buy for next pump.  If this pump isnt over and hits the gym he'll miss out.  But missing out on things ain't the end of the world, theres always the next one...

Willy talkin' like the cAP...

https://medium.com/@coinbaseblog?p=273cd9d6bd8c


Coinbase has announced that they are partnering with a Major Japanese bank and opening the exchange to the Japanese market.

Explanation

It’s our duty now!

 In that case, God forgive me, I'm rooting for a massive fourth wave!

Y’all forget about your 200-week MA or daily or monthly MAs

Next time use COVID graph for your trades

Explanation

This might be a real smart strategy but its also just a trade, we all know the Dollar decline is set almost by design now and they cant reverse it.  They cant reverse QE properly, debt cant/wont be repaid, the closing of the fiscal deficit seems unlikely so we're in a really leaky boat but I agree the Dollar can rise in theory just from volatility.    FED is not in control, that part is the illusion and if we ever see the obvious stated that FED is not the master of this situation then genuine panic occurs.   We have the perception FED can control it so the music plays on, I think this only works while people can believe 0% interest rates and other apparitions that will keep appearing are just fine.  The people are the economy, its not a puppet show and it has to work to the benefit of the people or things go badly; FED has one tool which is to loosen monetary policy.
  Other arguments for Dollar strength would be government repaying debt, or exports rising also raising dollar demand and the final thing is dollar demand from buyers of the debt but this story is way overdone and there is an excess of debt and QE.    I've been watching Dollar index and its failed to break upwards, its part of why we rose and markets generally from end of July so its weaker year on year from that and it has tested and attempted higher already so far as I can see.   Saying that DXY, UUP or whatever ticker is just about trying for higher on Dollar now then July so lets see if it can do what it failed in April which is breaking past the levels of a year ago July August I want to see confirm its a stronger dollar now then back then; if this occurs maybe bearish scenarios have better reasoning.
  I think this move itself is speculative on FED tightening, ultimately I dont believe they can or what occurs is ongoing dollar dilution and lower value ie. inflation exceeds rates.   DXY also is a measure of FIAT ratios not value vs real costs.

Near term BTC might going down a bit I expect a pullback but this plan for a hard sell is far too bearish.   I agree on the hype take, that always happens there is froth in the price.    Theres a whole range of possibilities but anything near 30k was a buy I reckon just for this year, higher then that for longer term is quite probable.


We did that in 2020 so thats the touch thats not going to occur every year, thats the real in extremis view.   Everyone wants to buy there, thats why it doesnt occur often; you know this by correlating it to the news event that came with it.   I sure hope we arent being pushed in that way again so often

Explanation

Quoted to make a prediction. You'll be buying back higher than you sold.

Night HODLsleep is calling me

Everyone has the right for using there own strategy…. Ours are just not similar though thx for sharing us your vision….

I’ll just stick in the world of I have s little fiat on the side I can work perfect with my fiat incomes and I try to maximize and expand my BTC hodl stash when I can, keep my most of worth in it bc trusting it there way more as having it in fiat and banks etc….

That's all dandy IF there are no cap gains.
In US this strategy cannot work well as long as you are in the higher bracket.

reading about brain organoids with eyes...sheeeeit (as Bob would say).
Even Descartes way back when was pondering about us possibly just being brains (or even circuits?) floating in some kind of media (nobody would know the difference if all senses are intentionally deceived):

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_in_a_vat
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evil_demon