$300k to $600k - Moderately highly bullish - about 7.25% odds
just point out this line Can you tell me {$300k to $600k} going to be sure and very fast? We ourselves are accustomed to seeing many things but we hope that this is going to happen very soon. Now the question may be why we are hoping so much, I want to say here since we are having a good time a few days ago, we can hope that {$300k to $600k} will pass very soon.
Of course, I am shooting the numbers out of my ass a wee bit in terms of attempting to assign odds that add up to 100%, and probably it is worth reposting and discussing all of the numbers in the chart as they add up and can be added together to hopefully arrive at logical and consistent ideas
(even if a wee bit out of my ass and from my own personal senses of bitcoin price possibilities for this cycle, at the moment - which such personal senses can surely change with the passage of time and changes in circumstances)..
So if you add up the numbers in the chart, even my proclamation of "we are going more UP higher than $48k" all adds up to 72% as compared with going down from $48k to be 28%.. and I am even struggling whether that is a good way of thinking about some of the particulars of various ranges within this matter even with the whole thing adding up to 100%, so it should capture all possibilities, even if I am not correct in terms of my speculating on the current odds for each range within this cycle.
Edited repost: above $1.5 million - unthinkable of most bullish of scenarios - about .5% odds
$800k to $1.5 million - most bullish of scenarios - about 2.5% odds
$600k to $800k - 2nd most bullish of scenarios - about 4.25% odds
$300k to $600k - Moderately highly bullish - about 7.25% 7.75% odds
$100k $150k to $300k - normal range bullish - about 12.5% 15.5% odds
$65k $80k to $100k $150k - hardly bullish - but at least a new ATH as our top - about 13% 16% odds
$55k to $65k $80k - deadman's zone.. not likely to be a top - about 14.5% 8% odds
$current price$48k to $55k - relatively bearish - about 18% odds
down from here $48k - most bearish - but possible - about 28% odds
**Edited to more adequately account for my reconsideration of what is likely to be a $55k to $80k deadman's zone, which ended up screwing up the various other numbers. and messing up my earlier chart, somewhat.. though the chart should still should be decipherable after the various rethinkening edits...
So the further up that the BTC price goes, the less that can be added onto the odds of the price ending up in that upper range.. I suppose that there could be some flattening out, which does not really seem to happen in my chart, but the deadman zone ends up having lower odds because it seems to be a kind of pass through zone that is NOT likely to get stuck in there, so in essence once the BTC price gets above $55k (if it does) - in my example, the top is likely to NOT get stuck in that zone, so the odds are lower in that area than the areas around it, even though the top still retains about an 8% chance of getting stuck in that no man's zone, but the odds are low, relatively speaking (and sure of course, I am still considering what number is the entry point to the no man's zone and where is the end, so I might want to tweak those entry and exit points with either more clarity of my thoughts or maybe changes in the facts in terms of if how the BTC price is playing out changes away from earlier presumptions that I have and I might not be articulating too well, for whatever reason.. including that I might not know logic or facts.. but then find out later).
As far as timeline, sure it is likely to take longer to play out for the top the higher the projected top price number and there could be some decently strong BTC price corrections along the way that still do not end up taking us out of the bull trend but cause delay and could cause for either stronger or weaker rebounds.. but still ending up in an up trend or getting stuck in the no man's zone for way longer than theoretically anticipated.. things like that could change the timeline... fuck math and science.. we gotta be rolling with the punches rather than trying to act as if we know what is going to happen before it actually happens.
Just like our most recent correction from $65k to $28.6
has not yet taken us out of the bull trend, as far as I can tell.. but we are still within the correction zone, so the facts have not exactly played out completely for any of us to be concluding that we know much of anything about which way that we might be going from here, except for assigning odds and weights to various factors.
In other words, we cannot really know for sure about what conditions would cause us to conclude that we are still in the same UPpity trend versus having corrections that are low enough and long enough to take us out of such UPpity trend... and sometimes we really cannot conclude with high certainty until a decent amount of time has passed and we are no longer in the midst of it, even though I surely continue to conclude that if we actually are in a bull market then the odds of breaking up should be stronger than breaking down, and any of us can question what kinds of happenings break our current presumptions (and how strong are the presumptions, too). For sure, people have differing ways of framing the whole price dynamic matter and how much weight to assign to various factors that would then affect the conclusions that they reach from the same facts and logic, but they are giving differing weights than other peeps (and sometime talking their books too or filled with hopium and being dweebs
(those fucks) rather than really attempting to honestly assess where we are at under fair and reasonable parameters.. and some of it is surely not intentionally being a dweeb, too).
So current theories about timeline for the top of this cycle would be something like this:
1) the top is already in (maybe 49% or so),
2) the top takes less than 5 months to play out (so this calendar year) (maybe 28% or so)
3) the top takes until 2 or 3rd quarter of 2022 to play out (maybe 18% or so) or
4) the top takes longer than a year from now to play out. (maybe 5% or so)
Again.. the numbers add up to 100% so account for all scenarios.. even though the estimates are somewhat out of my ass, so they could be wrong in terms of fair probabilities of how long it may well take for this cycle to play out.
just point out this line Can you tell me {$300k to $600k} going to be sure and very fast?
There is no "sure" in Bitcoin. And that's for sure
It's funny because my out of my llama maths and sciences were not even close to "sure" but peeps (are these kinds of peeps normies or what?) still demonstrate that they tend to have BIG ASS inclinations to gravitate towards a "sure" interpretations of the same data that I had assigned about 7.25% odds....
......or maybe if put into context, we would have ended up arriving at 14.5% odds of passing through somewhere into the supra $300k territories (that is 7.25% + 4.25% + 2.5% + .5% = 14.5%).. I am looking at the numbers and thinking that maybe I am overly pie in the sky bullish too with my numbers.. holy shit.. those are pretty high odds for supra $300k for this cycle.... and.. my updated numbers of the above chart show 15% odds to get $300k or above within this cycle (that is 7.75% + 4.25% + 2.5% + .5% = 15%) .. I don't know... just kind of attempting my best at putting my senses into numbers with a kind of guesstimating.
