Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4907. (Read 26609225 times)

Explanation

Why is it every time I fill an order we immediately get an additional 10% drop? I'm beginning to think I'm a negative influence on the market. 🤔

Four digits are still great for those who managed to invest early! You need to try harder to scare the early adopters... say double digits? That's a lot scarier but still 100+% profit for some... 

People overall have difficulty in projecting exponential price trends, therefore 1-5 and 10mil price prediction seems outrageous even 10 years out even though just 50%/year appreciation for btc (1/4 of prior average) would result in approx $2.6 mil/btc in 10 years, which is quite doable.

Les grandeur par triomphe et la financier liberté.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=snxUHRaGTuA&list=PLI1v5HVKJXgPABl1godoeEfinxfpqKkw2&index=3

These bearish losers use any small correction to talk about 4 digits lol

3 months of massive FUD and bears could not brake 29k.

Bitcoin really struggling to even get near $48,000 again now. Haha, losers, you will be crying in to Ramen & tap water soon. Downtrend will resume. See you at four digits soon.

weeeee

Well well well JJG is turning bearish?   Not a good sign... I feel I'm going to suffer without lambos, hookers and blow for another 4 years? NOT!

I'm more than ever convinced that we're going to reach a new ATH (and subsequently a blowoff top of $150-450k) this year. Hodl strong brethren!  

Explanation

I was with you all the way Zedpastin, until you got to the last sentence.. Holy fucking shit.

Of course, there is no problem with being conservative and keeping your expectations relatively low (or not too high), but $250k in 10 years is a stretch, but possible..   In 10 years, $20million is a stretch, but possible.. $250k is pretty damned conservative.. but surely possible as well.

On a personal level, I do not want to be too presumptuous, so I have no problem at all to plan around something like 6% per year average price appreciation of my BTC investment portfolio.. which would end up with way smaller numbers than $250k in 10 years, but even if I am personally using very conservative numbers to protect my lil selfie.. we should also attempt to be reasonable in terms of the various upside potentials of this particular asset class that may or may not play out, but there are a lot of scenarios that go way above and beyond a conservative 6% per year expectation.. especially when considering ways to plan around bitcoin and maybe even stocking a bit more or something and not locking yourself into conservative thinking - but that would not necessarily mean taking undue risks either.. One of the nice things about bitcoin both historically and even considering current planning is that you do not necessarily need to invest a lot in order to still be prepared for the scenarios of higher BTC performance that may or may not happen (and still get richie way beyond expectations.. already happened to lots of relatively conservative peeps.. no need to mention names, right?).


You may well need to do a quite a bit more house shopping Xhomer..

I know of a lot of houses that have recently sold in the USA for well less than $150k.. not distressed properties or anything.. . .and I will just give you one example of a house around $150k that recently sold (not making shit up, and don't even think that this kind of case is unusual.. even with some recent pumpenings of house prices).. Anyhow..  on 4 acres of land, three bedrooms, two bathrooms two car garage, about 3 miles outside of a town of 2k-ish people (county seat so not in the boonies boonies).. About 60 to 100 miles from a few towns (very small cities) of 70k to 100k people.. maybe around 1,800 square feet in size between the upstairs & downstairs (somewhat finished basement).. with both a well and with rural water.. some neighbors in the area.. around 6-7 neighbor houses in a 1/4 mile to 1 mile away radius..  sure rural.. and not next to the ocean.. but still... there may be some places in the USA next to the ocean (gulf... but similar idea) that will have similar prices (or lower) think lower states Mississippi or Louisiana or Alabama


I am thinking that it does not really matter very much what kind of scientist PlanB is, but he is attempting to apply scientific methods to data.. and assigning some outcomes as causing his model to be invalidated.. just seems to deviate from my understanding of accounting for how much deviation would be tolerable to still proclaim that the model is still valid.. so of course, he can make whatever proclamations that he likes and attempt to maintain his credibility. but those kinds of outlandish statements that suggest that below $43k in September or below $63k in October breaks his model.. just seem crazy as fuck when we had already been down into the upper $20ks and the lower $30ks for the past three months-ish.  

I feel like I am starting to somewhat repeat myself.  

CB/armature radio antennas will light florescent tubes up when held near them on transmit.

Thanks, it all makes sense.

After returning home and reading through other answers to your question I think it has been answered already so I'll just make it short.

Sideways lightning is not at all unheard of, this creates (low voltage) "electricity in the air" this "electricity" or electromagnetic radiation can be picked up by some electric equipment like for example luminous bulbs and/or power lines and make things go weird in your home.
The red bulb is read because of low voltage.
Aliens not involved.

Fun facts

Farmers sometimes place luminous tubes next to electric fencing to check if it works, when there's a power pulse the tube lights up.

A farmer in Sweden some years ago put a roll of barbed wire under a high voltage power line and ran two wires to his barn, he used this electricity to power his barn and garage.
Unfortunately for him the power company sent a crew out to trim the growth under the wires, and they found the roll of barbed wire, followed the wires to the barn, and he was busted and charged with electricity theft.

Seems that the dude already has both..


That's part of the rationale why this here "dude's" preference would be the henna tattoo, and I would imagine that they hurt less worser, too (not that I am speaking from experience beyond speculative observations).


Not that I am proclaiming ownership, but are you trying to steal my "go to" line? 

"It's 50/50 dude."

 

I'm so angry.. on the inside


Everyone?

I wonder about that.

Do you believe that 0.21 BTC is going to bring financial freedom at $250k for some of us?  That's merely $52,500.  And some even more newbies have not even reached that level of BTC accumulation, yet.  Furthermore, who is to say that we are even able to hang onto the quantity of BTC that we currently own if the BTC price goes up more than 5x from here in terms of fiat value? 

BTC HODLers/accumulators get excited frequently and cannot even recall what their goal(s) was(were), if they had any in the first place, and then frequently, those kinds of peeps sell way too much of whatever BTC they did happen to have too early.. I have seen those kinds of behaviors.. even from WO regulars,  time and time again..


I will agree with you that it surely can be difficult to HODL through dips, so you are kind of arguing my point regarding the difficulties that some folks are going to have in terms of having any BTC left in their investment portfolio in the event that we were to make it to $250k prices were it to occur this cycle or were it to take one or two more cycles to play out.


I already partly answered this in terms of my current expectations about various probabilities for the top of the BTC price for this cycle.. even though the analysis price range that I used was $150k to $300k..   

Furthermore, if we were to attempt to assign odds that go beyond this particular, the various projected scenarios could would likely come out different in terms of first speculating this cycle and then that could affect the next cycle.. so surely, the further out the more speculative the whole matter becomes.... so we are lucky enough to attempt to get prediction attempts that are kept within this cycle.. presuming that there is such a thing as a cycle, too... 

Explanation

Good post I agree that only the people that intend on taking their Bitcoin out at 250k would be financially free but then are you free because you took your money out of Bitcoin and put it into a dying fiat currency which will be having a big amount of inflation?

I think if you were to safe guard your investment you would withdraw 50/50 in Bitcoin and fiat. withdrawing 50% of your Bitcoin holdings when it reaches 250k and using that money for a house and to buy assets then retaining the rest in Bitcoin and use that for every day life?

Oh?

Interesante.

I suppose that you are talking about this cycle.. so maybe within the next 4 months to 12months -ish?

Probably not a bad place to be..., even though it seems that you are measuring your own purported conversion to financial freedom status from a potential BTC price top.. or am I misreading you...

If so, many of us realize that bitcoin remains a volatile as fuck asset, and some of us proclaim that volatility is close to inevitable in bitcoin, which means that it likely close to one of the ONLY things that you are able to rely upon.. even though not really knowing which direction, so I wonder how you could lock in financial freedom from that $250k price in the event that it were to be a top, rather than a bottom?

Seems to me that would probably need to get into a kind of $1.5 million-ish territory before we might be able to start presuming anything in the range of $250k as a potential bottom-ish price arena.


Reminds me of never say never.

 

I would give you some merit but I am out have some WOmerit +5 instead.

I think you bring up a good reason that if Bitcoin did get 250k or any amount that you need to get financially free the USA is probably not the best place to live if you are thinking about living as cheap as you can. There are many other countries where the cost of living is less and the lifestyle or quality of lifestyle might be the same.



Scientist does not mean they know about the economy and he demonstrates this by his wild predictions. What type of scientist is he suppose to be any way?

What is freedom ?

A shelter?
A shelter in a low crime area?
A way to get food easy?
Some one to make love with?
Easy transportation?

I Live in low crime suburban area in New Jersey.
A nice home with a 1/3 of an acre is 450k
Tax is about 10k.

My style of home in USA could be as low as 200k tax under 2k
It could be as high as 800k tax of 20k.

So for me and my wife I need 2million to replace our pension  and our insurance.

That frees us from the federal government pension and insurance . Just in case the USA falters.

I have a lot of relatives in multiple countries I could flee to.

Say Australia, Italy  ,  Argentina.

So BTC gives me a chance to leave the USA if I have to.

For sure I like PlanB and his data, but sometimes I have to think: "holy fucking shit" or oh gawd...  ....is the guy delusional, or what? 

He is supposed to be a scientist.  $43k for September and $63k for October as a worse case scenario.. holy fucking shit.. that is almost retarded.. like the odds are zero that we will go below $43k in September or zero odds that we will go below $63k in October..

I never heard anything more ridiculous from a supposed science.. even though I agree with a lot of his other ideas and about the model, but he seems to conclude that the model is broken if any of the things beyond the model expectation parameters play out such as the below $43k for September or the below $63k for October.   

He seems to be inviting his own failure (or the failure of his model and then if the unthinkable were to occur then he has to revise his conceptualization of model parameters and blah blah blah and say .. but what I meant to say was.. blah blah blah).. 

Please.. let's get a divorce.. ... divorce PlanB from his own model.  #nohomo


 

Please note for what it is worth that I claim to be a layperson non-scientist making these kinds of criticism of the scientist assertions.