Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4906. (Read 26609382 times)

Explanation

Explanation

Yep. And by dangerous skin reactions they mean chemical burns and scarring. Some of the pictures I ran across were quite horrible.

Explanation

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/realized-bitcoin-price-breaks-all-time-high-2021-08-18

The realized price of bitcoin has broken its all-time high reached on May 12 earlier this year, with the metric currently at $20,200. Realized price measures the value that every UTXO on the network last moved to calculate the price of bitcoin.

Whereas the market capitalization of bitcoin is calculated by multiplying the circulating supply by the spot price, the realized capitalization takes every “coin” on the market and uses the price at which the coin (or more technically: UTXO) last moved in the calculation. Thus, the realized price is simply taking the realized capitalization and dividing it by the circulating supply.

Realized price can often provide more signal as to investor activity on the network, as it quantifies that bitcoin is actually exchanging hands, and that price is not just being bid up on the margin via the derivative markets, or by whales wash trading.

Explanation

Observed now bitcoin price $44811,

Both #bitcoin S2F (white line) and on-chain signal (color, not red yet) still indicating a 2nd leg of this bull market.

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1427698542219612167

Now bull market is comming soon waiting for new renge and create new market stragy wait pumping $100k 

Explanation

And?

Edit:  

Ok.  I google searched and came up with this:

>>>>Why are black henna tattoos bad?
Image result for what is wrong with black henna
The extra ingredient used to blacken henna is often a coal-tar hair dye containing p-phenylenediamine (PPD), an ingredient that can cause dangerous skin reactions in some people. That's the reason hair dyes have a caution statement and instructions to do a "patch test" on a small area of the skin before using them.<<<<<<
https://www.fda.gov/cosmetics/cosmetic-products/temporary-tattoos-hennamehndi-and-black-henna-fact-sheet


Fair enough.. fair enough.

You might be misreading me.. not that I am important in any of this.. but it seems that I am placing pretty decent odds on a variety of upwards scenarios, even if you might consider my numbers as small on my chart.. but you still could add my numbers together to see that they are still seeming to be pretty bullish numbers.... or at least that is how I would characterize my own numbers with a seeming 15% chance of getting above $300k for this cycle which could last for up to a year from now..... and golly gee whiz, you can see that my odds for $150k or higher adds up to 30.5%.. holy shit that seems pretty damned high odds to me that we have nearly a 1/3 chance to go more than 3.3x from here?  but sure, you can frame my numbers however you would like to frame your placing of odds on the matter, too.

Maybe I should give up?  and stop trying to 'splain my lil selfie and just causing confusion amongst the peeps?  Maybe that is one of PlanB's problems, too?  Me and PlanB share something in common.  too wordy.. PlanB the wordyman.

 


See what I am saying... totally misunderstood...

Sucks to be me..

 



When you say that we are going up, you have to give a time frame and an amount..

So for example, if you were to say that largely $43,700k is the bottom (give or take $500) for this short term correction, and 90% odds that we will be on the way to $53k by no later than 1 week from the time of this post.. for sure I am going to have my doubts, and I don't really try to predict much beyond 50/50 for short term price moves... I do not roll like that... so we are talking about different topics.

You did see me proclaim something like once we pass $46k, the odds are at least 63% that the $28,600 bottom is in, so we still have up to 37% odds of revisiting sub $28,600.

Don't try to trap me into making arguments that I am not making.. especially regarding the short term, because I hardly claim to know shit about the short term, beyond 50/50-ish and since we are in a bull market, it would probably be more accurate for me to generally conclude with 51/49 in favor of UPpity.. something like that.

My other numbers were within this particular cycle which could end anytime between it already ended and 12 months from now, and perhaps even take longer.. what the fuck do I know until it happens even though I had already given numbers to all these scenarios which I consider to be bullish as fuck, and you are wanting me to come out with even BIGGER numbers - and I have never done that even while I was citttttttteeeee as fuck all the way up to $19,666 in late 2017, and did not even sell too much BTC.. maybe I had sold 12% of my total stash by the time we reached the late 2017 top.. which was way less than my earlier projections of selling 20% or some other nonsense like that (that I revised downwardly.. which is also more bullish, if you ask me, but who's asking me.. seemingly no one.. everyone just wants to assume for me..even after I plotted out a pretty detailed skeemening.. 'splaining all things material and relevant to the way that this bot woops..guy... thinks.


How could I be wrong?  I just place odds on a variety of scenarios.

Of course, once the outcome plays out, then the outcome becomes 100%, so if I proclaim that:

 outcome 1) has 15% odds,
outcome 2) has a 21% odds
 outcome 3) has 10% odds,
outcome 4) has 6% odds,
outcome 5) has a 3% odds
outcome 6) has 9% odds,
outcome 7) has 12% odds,
outcome has a 25% odds ..

Merely because outcome 5 ends up playing out does not mean that I was wrong merely because it becomes 100% and I placed the lowest odds on that scenario at time 1 when I made the prediction and the scenario of outcome 5 ends up playing out at time 6.   Once outcome 5 plays out, all of the other scenarios go to zero, but any of the outcomes could have ended up playing out, no matter what odds I had personally assigned to the various outcomes. 

Also, it does not mean that I am either pulling numbers out of my ass (even though I am), it is just that  if the future is unknown, there are a variety of scenarios that could play out, and sure maybe many times one of the higher likely scenarios will play out, such as scenario 1, 2, or 8, but sometimes the lesser likely scenario will end up playing out, such as scenario 4 or 5.

Sometimes also with the passage of time, some of the odds for the scenarios will change and some scenarios will have to be completely removed from the list because they become totally impossible to carry out or they become completely negated... so later down the road, there might be fewer scenarios from the original list, but there might be some additional scenarios that need to get added to the list because they become relevant or it might be more informative to split outcome 7 into outcome 7a and outcome 7b (subsets of the earlier scenario that was more general in its description).


Yeah.. but it still seems to me that several of my attempted points had been misunderstood... or at least interpreted in ways that I had not intended to communicate.

Explanation

Excellent lightning explanation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3cQNpOR_a0

Yes... Thanks. I subscribe to What Bitcoin Did, so I had already listened to that a few days ago when it went into that feed.. I have heard several interviews with PlanB over the years, and even if it sounds that I am dissing him, I appreciate a lot of his ideas and his work.. and otherwise stand by my earlier reaction/comments... not even trying to say that I am smarter than him in order to still suggest that his tweet was retarded for the reasons already stated... maybe smart guys need to be held to a higher standards in terms of not sending out retarded tweets.. hahahahaha


If I am getting you correctly LFC, Q3-4 2017 could have been measured at something around 8x of BTC price appreciation .. there were some ups and downs in there.. but even a quick bottom to top might have been measured in less than a quarter between about mid-September to mid-December of maybe 6.5x (from $3k to $19,666).. .. not exactly both quarters.. but in the time span of both quarters the 8x would have been from late July of around sub-$2,500 to $19,666.. so yeah.. 8x in that time frame.. so even better than 2x.. .. hahahaha

Remember we also got more than 3.3 x between April 2019 to June 2019.. there are other examples of course for our lillie fiend to show a certain kind of ongoing prowess potential.

May have been a good idea.

Generally it is not good to post with too much emotions especially when some of us are attempting to post about substantive issues.


That is ONLY like 2-3% difference between $44,500 and $45,500, so it seems fairly petty to get worked up about such a thing.  Of course, you could end up setting smaller amounts at varying increments too... there are a lot of ways to do it, but when you practice, you should become more and more comfortable with your own tolerances.. and sure, it may well make a bigger difference if you are stacking between 0.21 BTC and getting up to 2.1BTC as compared to if your stack reaches more than 10BTC, then you might not be as concerned.. so of course, the values are going to change over time, so if you are stacking at $45,500 you may be able to stack 0.02197802 BTC with $1,000, and sure you could have stacked 0.02247191 with prices at $44,500, but then down the road when BTC prices are supra $100k, you might have $2k that you can use for stacking, but you end up getting only 0.02BTC with the double the fiat amount in your pocket.   

It still seems to me that you just do what you can, and don't get too worked up about price differences because over time the amount stacked will add up and you are sill likely going to be ahead of so many normies who both fail/refuse to even get started in Bitcoin.. and by the time they get started, you will already have stacked up a decent quantity.. (not that you should be competing against anyone but yourself, and maybe not even healthy to compete against yourself or to kick yourself for attempting to be practical along the way in terms of ongoing stacking.

I know the feelings about being a wee bit more desperate in my own feelings while I was in my earliest few years of stacking sats, but I kind of mellowed out with the passage of time and realizing that I had stacked a reasonable and meaningful amount in terms of my own situation, but it surely did take me 2-3 years to get there and I was more nervous earlier in the stacking career.. and there are going to be guys/gals/institutions/states coming into this matter 4-10 years down the road, and you will have already gotten to a decent level of comfort, and the difference between buying at $44,500 and $45,500 is not going to matter so much in the whole scheme of things when those peeps/institutions are going to be stacking and the price might be over a $million or even well over $10million further down the road... in other words do what you can.. do what you can..

Oh and I have already told this story before, and I kind of hate to brag, but in 2015 I had some kind of screwed up and tightened cashflow where I could not buy shit for bitcoin between about mid-January and about April or so.. and the BTC price was in the mid to lower $200s for much of that time.  So sometimes I would have something like $20 extra come to me, and I would put half in my cash reserves and the other half into bitcoin So, $10 would still be 0.05 BTC, and so maybe I did that several weeks and then sometimes I would have a few hundred come in, so I would get $150 or so worth of bitcoin, so it might be 0.75BTC or something like that, so it would add up and even had some periods, where I could not really spare anything extra, but then suddenly some cashflow matter would resolve, and then i would have cash for a few weeks from clearing up the matter.. so by July or August 2015, my cash was clearing up a bit more, and even over that whole year, I had seen that my cashflow had really sucked the whole time, but I still ended up having something like 12% more bitcoin at the end of 2015 as compared to what I had at the beginning of 2015.. so overall it was a good year even though my cashflow sucked through such a large portion of 2015.


I think that is how my earliest days in bitcoin went too.. Several times, I set BTC accumulation targets, and matters worked themselves out in such a way that the ongoing and regular seriousness and focus of BTC accumulating payed off.


Perhaps.  I would not call a 8% drop to be that BIG of a deal unless we had already dropped 25% and then get another 8% drop to 33%.. or even when we dropped 48% and then another 8% drop down to 56%, then those kinds of numbers can be a wee bit depressing.

But hey, everyone has their depression points, even if it may seem to me that some thicker skin and fewer emotions would be preferred, especially since there will sometimes be quite considerable periods in which the BTC price does not move in the direction that you would rather have it move, and the longer that you are in, likely the more BTC you have stashed in order to create a kind of natural preference for UPpity.. but still might not complain if you have 10BTC, and you are able to pick up another .5BTC because the price dropped 50%.. but sure, you would have rather NOT have the BTC price drop.


Of course, it is not any kind of BIG deal to me, and just having some back and forth interaction can be helpful to both of us and perhaps some other members too..


flip a coin... that might equally be as effective in figuring it out.... 

Explanation

Just don't do black henna.

This is called Dedication!

No I'm not going to shrink it.

Explanation

Both are somewhat vague terms, so probably there would not be much if any difference between them, and personally, I was using the terms synonymously, but it seems to me that "fuck you" is a bit more in your face.. even though I doubt that it would necessarily have much if any difference from financial freedom.

Of course, it is possible to get an on average of 6% per year on your bitcoin investment, but I really have my doubts that performance is going to be that low unless you are really screwing a lot of things up along the way.. and sure, don't put it past normies to screw things up.

My first few years into bitcoin between late 2013 and even late 2016, I spent a lot of time in the negative in terms of BTC price performance, but now, after about 7.5 years, I have something like a 65% per year average returns..

So with that kind of a level of return, if a guy had happened to start with investing $2k into BTC in early 2014, he would have had around $136k in around this time in 2021 without investing any more into it .. 7.5 years later.

Of course, we cannot necessarily expect ongoingly to be able to get 65% per year returns, and we also should not be expecting the BTC price to ONLY appreciate 6% per year, either..  We do not know, but we have some ideas that front loading the investment is likely to be good.. but you still need a relatively long investment time horizon to have some level of confidence that the returns will be decently well.


I doubt that it is healthy to assign too high of probability to things that have not yet happened unless you were to have complete control over if and when such a thing were to happen.. which is surely not the case with bitcoin price getting to $300k to $600k.


Yeah.,. fuck those bullshit expectations that you have to earn interest.

Bitcoin is designed to pump forever, so don't be getting distracted into nonsense products or leaving your bitcoin with other people in order to strategize that you are going to "beat the system" and end up getting fucked.

Now if you accumulate 2.1 BTC, and you want to fuck around with 10% of your BTC (such as 0.21 BTC, then sure, you are not risking your whole stash, even though as you already suggested, such attempts at earning interest are likely NOT necessary and are likely NOT going to be as much as your bitcoin is likely to appreciate in value.. especially if you are potentially looking (planning) 10 years to 20 years (or even more) into the future.

So for example, you could build and appreciate your bitcoin for 10 to 20 years, and perhaps start to draw from it at 4% to 12% per year, so long as the value appreciates on average at least at that rate.. sometimes you do not want to engage in aggressive withdrawal or to rely upon aggressive withdrawal unless you already have some extra cushion or you have some really solid ways of analyzing your bitcoin value and how much to value it which may well affect how much you believe that you can draw from it while maintaining its value.


Exactamente!!!!!

That's what I be trying to be talkening about.

 

Finally an actual regular WO member almost mostly gets it.