Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4904. (Read 26609380 times)

It’s people withdrawing their bitcoin from exchanges which usually means after a lag, their will be a supply shortage. The price will then naturally go up.

Bull run from people hoarding Bitcoin incoming or is this in a couple of transactions from whales?

I would like to be in the position that I have enough Bitcoin to not need a mortgage but if I had to I would secure a mortgage with my Bitcoin and replace it after.

Wrong.

If you mine btc as your sole source of income you will spend a lot of btc and stack some.

Right

If you buy and hodl.

Explanation

@WClementeIII
Exchanges down 111,033 BTC in the last 30 days. One of the sharpest drops of exchange inventories in Bitcoin's history.

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1428039375343046664?s=21

Everything you said is on target.

But one thing to keep in mind: The wealthy elite that buy bitcoin will never spend theirs as they view it as an asset. They will hodl btc and borrow fiat against it. The currency of the wealthy elite is debt (free money).

They mean to set up a system whereby "spending bitcoin" is for the plebs, so that the wealthy elite can get a cut of every transaction. Moar easy money for them. Also as the plebs spend their bitcoin, then more btc will flow into the coffers of the wealthy elite over the long term. Which they will continue to stack.

So with regard to bitcoin, should we do what the wealthy elite do with it, or should we act like the pleb masses?

as are most of mine..so there is that..

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some mid-morning charts


dyor

1h


4h

#whalelivesmatter

I sometimes find it hard to understand what you are saying but I do not think you should stop or change your habits based on me not understanding. I enjoy reading your posts as do many other people here in this thread I am sure. I sometimes find myself reading your posts multiple times to try and understand because you talk about a lot of things at once. That is not your problem but mine for not understanding. I hope I did not cause you to doubt or change your habits because you are one of the reasons WO is great

https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1428032703740346376

Explanation

By the way, my most recently developed thinking (over the past few days) in regards to whether there is a potential no man's zone, just like there had been in the $17,250 to $23,500 range in late 2020.. and my thinking is that our pretty severe-ass BTC price correction of 56% (starting in late May if you do not recall) and the fact that we largely stayed in such correction for three months (so far), has contributed to my consideration of a likely development of a no man's zone somewhere in the price range of $55k to $80k...

Sure, none of us can really know with any kind of certainty if 1) such no man's zone actually exists, 2) where it is exactly (if it does exist) and 3) how strong it is (if it does exist).... yet I am going to stick with such a tentative theory of a no man's zone having had been developed in the $55k to $80k price territory.

Accordingly, some of us have been waiting for $10k BTC price spurts that may happen in a very short period of time, which seems more than a reasonable expectations in terms of the capabilities of King Daddy .. especially in our current prices (as far as percentage moves in price etc etc) - whether such a price spurt would play out over 12-24 hours or even take nearly a week to play out, but I am having some trouble imagining anything like $10k spurt at this point (from $45,700) because that would cross us into tentative no mans' land... .. and then that means that further BTC price spurt would likely end up taking us to supra $80k... so seems to me that kind of a scenario seems too outrageous and too bullish and hard to say that we would be really ready for that kind of BTC price move, yet.. but what do I know?

In other words, I think that it is more reasonable and realistic to limit whatever BTC price spurt expectations that any of us might have to sub $55k.. so currently, maybe we could still measure such a BTC price spurt as $10k or supra $10k based on our yesterday's local bottom of $44,219.. .. which would thereby ONLY take us to around the mid to lower $54ks.. which is still not quite in to what could be our newest no man's land development price arena.

just some recent thinkenings out loud here..

Explanation

@WClementeIII
Price down today while whale holdings went up by ~13,000 BTC. Funny how that works.

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1427806214092644355?s=21



@WClementeIII
One ape’s liquidation is another whale’s order getting filled. Please refrain from feeding the whales at all times.

https://twitter.com/wclementeiii/status/1427980547817721857?s=21

I agree being your own bank can be tricky and cause a lot of people to panic lose their funds but this is made easier with the hardware wallets you can get. It does not protect from sending to scammers but it does protect from most software attacks and physical theft.

And let's not forget why some people think of Bitcoin as part of the "stock market", is that through derivatives, closed-end funds, and exchange-traded funds, such as GBTC, QBTC, BTCC, BTCX, EBIT, BTCQ, and BITC and a few more in the future, you can now get indirect exposure to the price and volatility through your tax sheltered or tax deferred accounts in your respective brokerages.

Not to mention the treasuries:
According to bitbo.io there are at least 1.6 million bitcoin in 62 companies, worth about $75 billion.

I hold bitcoin directly, as well as put some in my retirement accounts (that don't hold bitcoin, but an ETF that claims to hold bitcoin.) If you were an institutional investor, you can't really go wrong with the funds. And if you are an individual investor, you can't go wrong with putting a little bit into your retirement accounts too. It's still best to hold bitcoin directly / physically / private keys, but a lot of people either have difficulty with that or don't understand enough to do it safely.

Explanation

This is good news. Now we can avoid fees if you wanted to get a mortgage by transferring Bitcoin to fiat and then getting a mortgage. Are we expecting a change in price because of this announcement?

I think it is great for mortgages. If you have most of your money in Bitcoin then it makes sense to me to use the Bitcoin to avoid unnecessary fees of converting that Bitcoin to fiat if you were planning on getting a house any way. Not everyone is privileged to have the home that they want to live in permanently and will be forced to sell their Bitcoin if they want to upgrade.

I surely agree with you Dabs in regards to having options is not going to hurt, even if there might be some disincentives for people to spend bitcoin if they have other ways of transacting value first.

Of course, each person is going to be different in terms of how much, if any cushion that they might be able to create involving their bitcoins in order to be able to save or set aside bitcoin or to buy bitcoin..

I do try to suggest that people with even the tightest of cashflows try to figure out how to at least save/buy/accumulate $10 per week in bitcoin (no one should be without any bitcoin).. as a kind of minimum starting point for DCA and accumulating bitcoin.. and it may well take a long-ass time to get to some kind of meaningful richie status by only being able to set aside/accumulate the minimum amounts.. and if you can't you can't.. you just have to sit out the greatest wealth transfer in history.. even while you know it is happening.

In regards, to people with higher cashflows, they should be attempting to do a bit higher amounts of buying, accumulating, setting aside, and for beginners maybe starting with $25 to $100 per week is going to be a good start, and surely higher networth individuals should be able to buy, set aside/accumulate more than $25-$100 per week, and of course the amount such as even $1k per week, will depend on their cashflow and perhaps some of their other individual circumstances..

So, sure part of my point is that if you have varying kinds of spending options, bitcoin would be what you would be spending last.

In the event that you are earning money in bitcoin then surely you might well be forced to spend most if not all of the bitcoin that comes in, and if you are not earning money in bitcoin, you should be striving to accumulate as much BTC as you can so that you do not miss out on the greatest wealth transfer in history. ..

Surely, even if you are ONLY able to accumulate as little as $10 per week.. if you cannot even do that, then accumulate/set aside what you can.. and it will likely help down the road, even if it is not as likely to put you even close to fuck you or richie status, it still would be likely to make you much better off than living paycheck to paycheck until death.

If you cannot even set aside $10 per week of BTC... but it still could give you more options.. so for example, if you set aside the $10 per week for 10 years, it would add up to $5,200 set aside (in bitcoin, depending on the cost of the bitcoin), and 20 years would add up to $10,400 set aside.. so even small amounts can add up to large amounts over time, and surely bitcoin has historically had 10x, 100x and more than 1000x returns over relatively short periods of time, but even if you are able to get smaller returns over then next 10 to 20 years, BTC accumulation and setting aside as much as you reasonably can (without putting yourself at risk in other ways) should be what you are trying to do (especially if you already know about bitcoin.. and the coming 10 to 20 years, there are going to be a lot of newbies coming into bitcoin and either just hearing about  bitcoin or only just actually figuring out that they should accumulate and set aside bitcoin, and if you are 10 to 20 years before those likely upcoming newbies, then there are good chances to be a quite a few advantages from that kind of knowing in advance, so long as you act upon it rather than sitting on the sidelines).

Edited - 40 minutes later: because my computer was in the middle of a software install and restarted in the middle of my drafting of the post.

Edited II  -----  inspired from reading this subsequent (three posts downthread) and seemingly contradictory Dabs post  There have been a few times that you, Dabs, have made ambiguous (potentially contradictory) posts - like the above-linked one that suggests that you spend all of your bitcoin on a regular basis.. which provides rationale and impetus for my above post - especially since we are in a public thread.. and it seems important to me that newbies should understand that longer term bitcoiners (such as yourself Dabs) should have some pretty decently-sized clues that we should not be spending all of our bitcoin, even if we might have cashflow issues/problems.. unless we have no abilities at all to save any money at all.

This is the catch-22 of bitcoin, and one of the more interesting topics of thought, in my opinion.

Some of the factors:

Some believe people will not want to SPEND a deflationary hard money, but rather will SAVE into it.
As long as purchases with crypto are taxable events it disincentivizes commerce.
Gresham's vs Their's laws... how does that play out?

My thoughts...

Even if Bitcoin was not "spent" much it would be useful.  Currently in the west people are "saving" in the stock markets. You can't use stocks to buy things, and trades out are taxable events for most of us.  And yet the stock market continues to flourish.

Same with gold.  Gold is property. And people hedge with it.

But Bitcoin is a better hedge than either really. And the world is *juuuuust* figuring that out right now.

And here is the kicker.  Bitcoin's properties make it the most natural electronic money ever.  It is DESIGNED for commerce.  So once people are in it they will start to move it around.  I.E. SPEND it.

So... that's where it gets interesting.  How will that unfold?  Yes, I *do* think eventually people will spend their Bitcoin. I am just not sure about the path to that future.

Given the current thinking of the average Bitcoin user, I don’t believe anyone reasonable can give an affirmative answer to this question. I believe that most investors consider BTC exclusively as a store of value, and a small percentage of people use it as a currency.

If we exclude LN as a possible solution for fast and cheap payment, on-chain transactions are definitely unacceptable not only because of the occasionally high fees, but also because the time between 2 blocks can be much longer than the average 10 minutes. In the past 2 weeks, I have had at least 3 situations where I paid something with BTC (physical store) and waited between 30 and 50 minutes, not because of the fee, but because there was simply no block mined.

Of course, online payments are a little different, but still people will have a hard time deciding to pay with something that can bring them profit in the future.