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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5666. (Read 26608384 times)

legendary
Activity: 3512
Merit: 4557
No celebrity or politician (except those that came out against COVID) died from COVID.

Long list of famous people who died from Covid-19.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_deaths_due_to_COVID-19
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
No celebrity or politician (except those that came out against COVID) died from COVID.

idk what that means but we've had a few over here in Sweden

You mean one of the only nations in the world that didn't follow the NWO WHO recommendations?
legendary
Activity: 1526
Merit: 2617
In the UK up to January 2021 there were less than 200  Covid related deaths of under 50s who had no underlying condition registered.
(so 200 out of about 100,000 total UK Covid deaths at that point).

Really think vaccinating those under 50 (with no underlying conditions) shouldn't be promoted at all. If you want it, you can have it but we most certainly shouldn't be scaring people into some kind of requirement at those ages via vaccine passports. Vaccinating children against this seems completely ridiculous. After opening schools a month ago the infection rates didn't increase.

Enough of this carry on. They've vaccinated everyone above 50 and those with pre-conditions. I along with others celebrate the effort and speed but we should be moving on now without delay.

People are completely losing sight of risk of dying from anything else, which is also far more likely.
legendary
Activity: 3038
Merit: 6194
Meh.
No celebrity or politician (except those that came out against COVID) died from COVID.

idk what that means but we've had a few over here in Sweden
legendary
Activity: 3598
Merit: 2386
Viva Ut Vivas
Dammit, sad sad news.
Dark man X, one of the best...
R I P brother.


Sad Sad Sad

No celebrity or politician (except those that came out against COVID) died from COVID.

Now they're dying from the vaccine. At least those that didn't fake getting the vaccine on camera.

CNN/MSNBC Legal Analyst, Midwin Charles, 47






legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 2267
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
You hardly make any sense on this point Richy.. You seem to be wanting to spout out some kind of nonsense about bitcoin being "grandpa coin" which is hardly even close to the case.  As you likely realize, but maybe fail to appreciate, is that bitcoin remains paradigm shifting technology that has come along way since its October 2008 white paper and its January 2009 activation.. and there have surely been tweaks and developments along the way that keep it serving its original objectives and amazing levels of adoption, development, network effects, and future potential that is already built on strong foundations that you want to ongoingly poo poo as if some shitcoin might be better, even though you admit there is nothing that even comes close, but you still want to whine about grandpa coin not being enough for you.  I hardly get your purpose, but hey hopefully some day you will figure out some ways to balance a bit more, and maybe get to fucking work on chartbuddy, so we can at least get some pleasures to balance out the pain of having to put up with your ongoing seemingly persistent whinings... #nohomo... you fuck.

I like the car, really. And you may well disagree that the tire is flat but when we're heading down the road and a fellow passenger asks what the thump-thump-thump-thump is coming from the back left wheel, I'm going to tell them what I believe to be the cause. If there was no thump-thump-thump-thump, there would be nothing to be said.

Chartbuddy is currently under contemplation.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 2267
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
Similar to the recent subject about when should we start to measure BTC's price because of course, one of the very first transactions to buy two pizzas for 10k bitcoin might not be as representative as prices a few months down the road when larger numbers of trades are allowed and even locations for conducting such trades become more common.. so in that regard, there is a kind of product of the number of transactions and maybe the passage of time, and I do have some troubles gravitating on any price analysis that uses 2010 data because it seems so sporadic.. but it seems by the time that we are getting to 2011, even if the BTC price discovery is relatively immature, it seems fair enough to start to use that data rather than waiting for 2013 or some further down the road date - at least in my thinking.

I'd agree. I think that, barring contrary evidence, that is perfectly fine to consider as the seminal event in the price discovery for Bitcoin. I've always been wary of wanting to throw out data because it doesn't fit a narrative.
legendary
Activity: 2576
Merit: 2267
1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
So yeah if you are fairly young, then the timeline aspect can screw you up in terms of establishing an accumulation goal but then having to figure out how much that you would actually need to pull the fuck you lever in order to sustain yourself which could be a quite daunting projection in terms of the number of years or even your earning power if you are ONLY late 20s or early 30s as compared to someone who already entered into their 60s and likely has a much shorter time horizon and might not feel so compelled to conquer the world in terms of ongoing earning power.

I am still kind of assuming that you, shahzadafzal, are contemplating the top or possible tops in terms of your desire to accumulate more BTC, and you have not even come close to reaching your BTC accumulation goal, and that is part of the reason that you are expressing some anxiety in terms of what can be done (on a personal action level from yourself) in regards to BTC price swings that we largely know to be inevitable, but we really have few clues as to exactly when they might come - even if there are all kinds of trading theories including waves and some of that other bullshit that we could try to plug into bitcoin as a less mature asset class but has its own price performance models that help us to figure out how bitcoin's likely price performance fits into the other trading models.

Well i won't be denying your judgement in fact i would say it's pretty accurate...

Well thanks for considering my statements to be pretty accurate, and surely in the end each of us has to come to our determinations regarding various kinds of strategies that we believe are going to work for us, and even though I am likely imposing some of my ideas and frameworks upon you, I am not trying to persuade you in terms of the need to use your own judgement regarding how you might end up playing your own particulars.


yes i would accept i'm still in the beginning of BTC accumulation phase.. my first BTC buy was in late 2017 so of course i'm late.

Well there are a few aspects in terms of your consideration of yourself as late.  One aspect is that traditionally/historically, it has taken normies (I am going to presume that you are a normie) 30 years or more to accumulate such a financial position that they are able to say fuck you, and sometimes they are not able to do that either because all they have are a few assets such as a house, pension and some kind of government income, and if you are able to cut that in half or 1/3 then you are doing quite well and if you are able to not necessarily rely upon those other assets (income sources) then you are additionally ahead.  So, I personally believe that you cannot rush your accumulation of a position, and sure maybe you could have leveraged anything that you had in 2017 and now feeling smug about it, but that would have likely had been foolish.

Another aspect of being late in terms of the asset itself.. king daddy.  Yeah nearly everyone believes that they are late due to previous price run ups, but the fact of the matter is that you are not even close to late, if you compare yourself to other normies.  Of course, in recent times, there are some rich folks and institutions that seem to be trying to front run nomries, but there does still seem to be quite a bit of space and time for normies, especially someone who got started as early as 2017 to be able to continue to accumulate decently in order to get a decent foundational stake in order to have good odds in terms of their financial (psychological too) future.

and regarding the trading theories they all go above my head but i will believe if it's coming from someone credible.

Well to me, it did seem that you were getting worried about how to time price swings, and I think that is a kind of problematic thinking, even if you believe that you are not doing it.  I personally believe that you should be trying to establish a system that accounts for what you believe that the BTC price might do, but not getting too hung up on it because whatever system that you end up employing should mostly be emphasizing DCA, buying on dips and HODL... and sure you can get more sophisticated than that, but you should be trying to keep in mind the basic before trying to create a more sophisticated system.. and sure the long that you are in the more you might be able to play around to make your system more sophisticated so long as you are not putting your principle at stake in how you might be attempting to play various angles that might come about and you might have sufficient vision or position to take advantage of such developments.

.. and yeah, you want to incorporate selling into the formula.. I know I know.. and I do not recommend, unless it is very small amounts and  a kind of profit taking kind of formula.. consider the (SSS) - A Sane and Simple bitcoin Savings plan raking solution (even though rpietila.. rest in peace, was far from sane, there are some good ideas contained in that thread).

Wow i love it... that SSS analysis by rpietila is something... only wish if i had read it back in 2013 and its still valid but of course again it varies person to person and specially in today's market if you already own enough BTC let say in thousands you don't worry about acquiring more but spending carefully.

It should still help you to consider points in which you might start considering selling, and if you feel that your BTC stash is quite paltry, then you would still likely NOT be considering selling portions of it, even if it is 10x in profits.. for example, lets say that over the years you have been able to acquire 2 bitcoins and your average price per bitcoin is around $6k, and even though you are in the neighborhood of profits is 10x, you might have a target of $1million to $4 million before you feel that you are able to retire - depending on the state of inflation at the time that your stash gets to that value (and perhaps including other assets and investments that you might have).  So even though some of the ideas are likely going to be helpful, your particular circumstances will need to be accounted for in order to figure out how to employ some of the ideas of the SSS into your own system.. so even though you are currently assert that if you had started in 2013 blah blah blah (bullshit - don't be rushing it), the fact of the matter is that when 2027 comes along, through your persistence and foresight, you may well have been able to put yourself into a position at that time as someone who started in 2013 might be feeling at this time... yeah, everything is relative, but you should not be comparing yourself to others, but instead attempting to figure out how to create circumstances for yourself that is likely to put yourself into a great position within your timeline which may be 10 years from 2017 or it might be some other number, but I really doubt that it is helpful to be psychologically frustrating yourself by considering that you should have gotten in earlier and start to gamble based on that nonsense psychology when the fact of the matter is that someone who got into bitcoin in 2017 is going to be way the hell ahead of someone who is barely starting now and just hearing about bitcoin and having to figure out what the fuck bitcoin is and how to set up various accounts, and maybe just found the forum and are still having troubles distinguishing bitcoin from other various offerings that seem similar (at least to their newbie brain).  You have gotten nearly 4 years on the newbies just coming into the space, so don't go fucking it up by getting impatient and gambling rather than attempting to create prudent and reasonable strategies that are tailored to your own circumstances and tweaked from time to time based on your learnings and changes in circumstances.

Well, if you work your fucking ass off in various ways, you can use money from what you have earned to buy bitcoin, including figuring out ways to cut your living expenses, such as vapourminer's favorite ramen noodles.. and you can use some or all of the saved money to buy bitcoin.  You can also forestall on making expensive purchases, including depreciating assets, and consider whether it is practical to own such an asset or decide to rent a $2k per month property that you can rent out 2/3 of it for $1,500 and only pay $500 per month in rent rather than getting a place for $1k per month in which you would have to pay all the expenses, which could give you $500 or more in money to invest into bitcoin.  Of course, your age, your skills and your ingenuity could make differences, and sometimes, luck can help too.. but maybe you prepare for being able to get x, y or z lucrative job, but you end up with luck and you get the xyz job that ends up being a better one than you had even contemplated but your preparations had help to put you in such a position.

keeping your many valuable advices a side this one i love the most hahaha...  

 Part of the reason that I mention this is that I had done some variation of this.  I lived in a pretty expensive area and place, but instead of having the whole space to myself, I rented out portions which caused my rent to nearly be free, and of course, sometimes there can be headaches when dealing or living with others, but there are ways to deal with that too, and usually better when you are the one in charge.... even though being in charge can sometimes have disadvantages too.



well i see some of you guys have already convinced your partners on bitcoin but my wife... well she never opposed my bitcoin investments in fact she will support me but whenever I would ask her to buy BTC for her she would say "better buy me a gold ring"... so yeah I guess now my ramen noodles savings only can buy me some more BTC.

 Women have different thinkenings some times, and surely would be a bit better to have some compromising going on there, but there are some pretty decently long term WO folks who are kind of balancing some of these matters too.. including some splurging that they rather not want to do, but the wifey insists.

You might have to have a bit more of a talk with your wifey.. and maybe you are not going to bring her around because you have already been there and attempted that many times..

You have to decide for yourself what is your status in terms of accumulation and if you need to be spending time in more lucrative activities.  On a personal level, I have largely been on the forum for a bit over 7 years, but largely I had already reached a quasi-retirement status when I came to the forum.... and in my case, I had some business that I was involved in (in 2014, 2015 and 2016.. that I was trying to figure out ways to wrap up and get out of .. which also took several years to sort out.... but did not exactly require me to have to earn money from it.. even while I was trying to wrap it up. .. which probably ended up taking way more time than it should have.. but again personal choices regarding how to spend time and how much money is needed to be earned from some of the chosen activities.. or maybe what other benefits are derived from certain hobbies - such as maintaining health through exercise, even though it does not make any money)..  so each of us is in a different position.

Yes true many factors come along... of course you aren't alone there are people around you effecting your decision and choices too. So you have find a right balance... many of friends are in bitcoin but i think in my close family it's only me.

More people do seem to be getting in so chances of meeting and knowing people in real life is seeming to be increasing, but still taking a decent amount of time.. which still is showing the early status of the whole thing.
legendary
Activity: 2590
Merit: 4839
Addicted to HoDLing!
[...]

...don't buy a "portfolio" of alts instead of bitcoin. You will lose in a long run.

I can confirm that.

In the beginning of 2017, my cousin invested $5k in various cryptocurrencies. Currently he is in profit. His cryptocurrency portfolio is worth around $15k. Not bad. That's a 200% gain over the course of just over 4 years. No bank could ever offer that. Cryptocurrencies are so good, aren't they?

Here's the fun part: had my cousin invested his $5k solely in Bitcoin (as I suggested to him, but he didn't listen to me, because "it's too expensive"), he would now be the owner of 5 BTC = $290k. That's a whopping 5700% gain over the same period as above.

legendary
Activity: 3556
Merit: 9709
#1 VIP Crypto Casino
@APompilano
BREAKING: @DanielSLoeb1 and Third Point have revealed that they are holding Bitcoin.

Third Point is a $17 billion hedge fund.

Bitcoin is inevitable.
https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1380621049356824577?s=21


https://t.co/osOsfCtzSm





Pamp eet
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"

Use case #1 also implies that the true value of BTC per whole coin is indeed going to 100 million USD. Eventually. It will take decades maybe. Around the year 2050 we will find out. Some of us will be gone, others will have just "matured" ... We will see... we will see...

Sure, it could take another 10 to 30 years for BTC to reach $100 trillion.. which is a mere 100x from here.. or $5.5 million per coin... but it does seem that you are outlining this in a bit too much of a bearish way because the more bullish scenarios could actually quite easily reach $5.5 million per coin within 2 cycles.  I don't need to elaborate on the numbers, do I?

You misread what I wrote, and even quoted it. I said 100m USD per coin, not $5.5m.

Well you probably said something wrong somewhere else.  So there.   Tongue Tongue


 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

My bbbbaaaaadddd.    Cry Cry Cry


By the way, yeah.. $100million per coin would be 18x higher than $100 trillion market cap that I was talking about in my earlier attempt at a response..

So those are some pretty damned BIG numbers that should imply to a lot of people that bitcoin remains a very asymmetric bet to the upside - especially if you believe those kinds of numbers.. which they are not totally pie in the sky.. , and you do not need to put very much money into bitcoin (aka corns) in order to do quite well..

Many of those who even got into corns before the latest run up, and let's say have a few coins would be doing quite well at $5.5 million per coin and even MOAR weller with 18x that amount.  Hard to imagine those kinds of numbers, I must say, but surely not really that far out of reach in terms of even continuing with lesser extreme BTC price upruns, as I had already attempted to outline in my earlier attempt at a response.. and I surely am NOT ruling any of that out.. because what's another 18x between "friends", right? including that none of that what I said in my earlier post is really inconsistent with adding another 18x onto the target number.. except maybe it would take another cycle or so to get there.. perhaps? perhaps?
legendary
Activity: 3892
Merit: 4331
^ they are clearly 'oscillators' as woonomic calls them.

People are chasing because it is difficult to discipline oneself and buy something that is worth 58K vs 0.01 or whatever in between.
It is the same on the stock market: how many are buying BRK-A at 400000 or GOOGL and AMZN at $2-3K/share vs buying some much cheaper stonks?
In fact, there is one mutual fund (that performed quite well over the years, incidentally) that buys only stocks below $30 or something like that.
That table above is presenting a story that is not compete of course, but in general it is a correct one: don't buy a "portfolio" of alts instead of bitcoin.
You will lose in a long run.
legendary
Activity: 1134
Merit: 1599
BitcoinBunny reached the right conclusion, even if the data does not really support it very well.
I've made the same chart, but with BTC pairs instead of USD:



Quite difficult to recover from a -95% loss, even with a strong bull market. Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 2716
Merit: 13505
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
Dammit, sad sad news.
Dark man X, one of the best...
R I P brother.


Sad Sad Sad
legendary
Activity: 2716
Merit: 13505
BTC + Crossfit, living life.
I'm putting us here in the bull run compared to past cycles (on-chain data supports this).

Double top theory: IMO #Bitcoin  is completing the first of the "double tops", and turns out an ascending triangle going sideways is all we get.

Volatility is visibly lower this cycle.


https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1380546857097515008?s=21

Yes, would work for me.
Hopium on Saturdays.
Light up the green bar
!!!
legendary
Activity: 1869
Merit: 5781
Neighborhood Shenanigans Dispenser
you get the vaccine you will not die of COVID and you can't really spread it.

Assuming one survives the vaccination process...
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1767
Cлaвa Укpaїнi!
Fun fact, ABBA got famous by winning the Eurovision song contest in 1974 in Brighton, I watched it with some friends at a friends place in Rosengård (now a no go zone) and then biked home in the middle of the night, I was 14 and it was totally safe.
The song is called Waterloo, enjoy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vp1_OKawHYw

Sorry guys, I mislead you, I was 13, I really do suck at math.

That was pretty amazing. I always wondered, were they playing instruments live or was it synced to a track? I think it was live.

The Eurovision song contest is live, that's why there is a conductor, among other things, (dressed as napoleon).
legendary
Activity: 3920
Merit: 11299
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
~skip (billions of words)
....I was stunned by the length of your post


You must be new here....

Get out of here:  "billions"  I mean, have I even typed a billion words in my whole lil selfie life?  I wonder?

You are so cringe I cannot even help my lil selfie in eyerollening uie puie.

 Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes Roll Eyes


 Tongue Tongue

This shows just how shit the altcoin performance is.

Someone spread $1000 over top 10 cryptos and held for 39 months:



Without BTC he would be down to $843 despite the bull runs (from $900 invested).
If he had invested his $1000 in only BTC he would be up to $4560.

People just don't get it. Maybe 1 in 50 in the comments on reddit see what's happening. Unbelievable.

I predict there will be millions of poor people after the next bear market and upswing considering what's going on with altcoins right now.

But of course also millions of rich BTC holders and probably already some trillionaires.


This data is really not relevant, picking a random date to buy and a random date to sell will give you a random PNL. What if that was invested a year or two years before, what if those prices were updated during spring 2018 when many altcoins boomed, what if we wait some more months or years. I mean nobody really knows and I don't see how you can get anything of substance from that data. If anything it looks like the bull market is not ending anytime soon so not sure why picking a date around now to sell would be any good.

Yes I agree that the next bear market could produce many poors and many riches as did the last one and the one before it, but not necessarily because one chose Bitcoin over whatever altcoins or vice versa.


I agree with you that the chart might be a bit random, but still it seems that BitcoinBunny reached the right conclusion, even if the data does not really support it very well.  On the other hand, the implication of your conclusion, kaicrypzen, seems to be that investing in shitcoins can be a good idea, especially if you happen to be "smart" about it...

yeah, right, you are smarter than the market.... How much are you investing into shitcoins as compared with bitcoin?  Hopefully you are not allocating too much into that shit that you have to continuously monitor for a potential exit scam or some other rug pulling baloney.
legendary
Activity: 3164
Merit: 2258
I fix broken miners. And make holes in teeth :-)
On a happier note, some serious science on the vaccine effectiveness: Quick summary, you get the vaccine you will not die of COVID and you can't really spread it.

https://www.bioserendipity.com/vaccine-effectiveness-against-severe-covid-19-and-transmission/

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