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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 603. (Read 26467979 times)
March 22, 2024, 03:33:50 AM
March 22, 2024, 03:03:21 AM
March 22, 2024, 02:03:25 AM
March 22, 2024, 01:03:22 AM
March 22, 2024, 12:20:03 AM
March 22, 2024, 12:01:14 AM
March 21, 2024, 11:01:18 PM
March 21, 2024, 10:22:18 PM
Quite impressive to have a huge green candle yesterday.
The ETF inflows is close to zero and the outflows (GBTC) is high.
Shows the stupidity of people I guess, when prices were soaring, people were buying ETFs like crazy. Now, a week later when BTC is cheaper, they are nowhere to be seen..
Wasn't expecting that, would of thought inflows were positive based on the buying pressure. 3.8K Bitcoin is a fair amount of corn to scoop up from ETFs. Reclaiming $69K will likely bring back the ETF volume imo though, this would help to nullify the fake-out ATH scenario with a bullish weekly wick. Either that or $68K get's confirmed as a resistance level for the time being. This is otherwise the first real test of short-term resistance since $40K levels based on cloud, MAs and volume, so I can understand with the hesitancy from ETF investors on this one, given they quite clearly aren't in the market to buy dips.The ETF inflows is close to zero and the outflows (GBTC) is high.
Shows the stupidity of people I guess, when prices were soaring, people were buying ETFs like crazy. Now, a week later when BTC is cheaper, they are nowhere to be seen..
Still you ignored my counters to your bet proposals with some of my own bet proposals - but some of this is looking more in your favor currently.... and so I am a bit surprised by how much consolidating (or the correction down to nearly $60k-ish.. .yet there could still be something bettable in terms of my saying that BTC prices would probably not go below $40k ever again and/or they would not go less than 20% above the 200-WMA in either 2024 or 2025.. and surely I am ONLY considering those as slightly better than 50/50..
so I am potentially giving you pretty good betting terms, versus the vague-ass shit that you had been outlining earlier.. with the 50% drop and blah blah blah. .but without hardly any parameters.. hahahahahaha... so part of the reason that I said never below $40k is that I doubt that we are likely to get a 50% or greater drop prior to going above $80k... and I might even feel that way all the way up to $160k.. except the problem is that the higher the price, the more chances that we could end up getting a 50% drop if we go up to the price too quickly, and since we were already at around $70k-ish (or was it $72k-ish) when I made that proclamation, I thought that there is almost no way that we could end up going up to $80k too quickly that would end up triggering a 50% drop. But, hey, I know anything is possible, I am just figuring out some parameters for a 50/50 bet in which I consider the odds are in my favor and how I might be able to distinguish between what we had been saying. and you are currently still anticipating $36k-ish to still be in the cards...and even supposedly to have greater than 50% odds of happening.. at least that has been the way you had been speaking prior to my proposing the bet possibility.
Anyone else thinks this is a fake relief rally? I’m
About to make the decision I talked here before to sell 10% of my Bitcoin at certain stages. 69k was the first stage to sell 1%. But I’m ok with 67k right now. I have the feeling we will dump further and stabilize until few months after halving. Would be nice to have some powder to buy back deeper. As I am 100% into bitcoin and have nothing else on the side lol
About to make the decision I talked here before to sell 10% of my Bitcoin at certain stages. 69k was the first stage to sell 1%. But I’m ok with 67k right now. I have the feeling we will dump further and stabilize until few months after halving. Would be nice to have some powder to buy back deeper. As I am 100% into bitcoin and have nothing else on the side lol
I remain of the opinion that you should be willing to live with the possibility of not being able to buy back anything that you sell, otherwise don't sell it.
You don't sell to buy back cheaper when you have the most pristine asset the world has ever seen and if you feel that you don't have enough.
Now if you feel that you have enough, or more than enough, then sell some. .and if you end up being able to buy back cheaper that is icing on the cake, but I would not expect to be able to buy back cheaper.. that is retarded (or maybe just expecting too much).
The point is Saylor strategy about Bitcoin is working.
His strategy about bitcoin is working because he is a strong believer in investing in assets with scarcity and high demand. Bitcoin stands out as one of such assets due to its capped supply of 21 million coins, making it highly scarce. Saylor has already predicted the continued growth, projecting a 200% annual increase over the next decade and he is putting his money where his mouth is.I would suggest a 20% to 50% annual increase of the 200-WMA is more realistic in terms of attempting to predict the future from the past.. you cannot continue with the same historical rate of 2x per year, it does not make sense especially since the slope of the increase has been getting less steep with the passage of time.
[edited out]
Thanks! Since I have no clue about trading and reading charts, this is helpful. What I have a clue about (or experience in) are the fake rallies after some “good news” whales use to create fomo. And that Jerome Powell news from yesterday was the perfect reason for whales to create another fake pump just do dump very hard later. They did this so many times that I’m so sick of this strategy. But of course there is always the chance that “this time it’s different”. Well I missed to sell at 67-68k. Now I won’t sell at 65-66k. Either I wait for another small pump or I take my coins off Binance and go into hodl mode again. For sure, you (UnDerDoG81) seem to be inspired to sell based on emotions and possibly greed rather than logic.
Good luck with that.
March 21, 2024, 10:01:15 PM
March 21, 2024, 09:34:24 PM
Anyone else thinks this is a fake relief rally? I’m
About to make the decision I talked here before to sell 10% of my Bitcoin at certain stages. 69k was the first stage to sell 1%. But I’m ok with 67k right now. I have the feeling we will dump further and stabilize until few months after halving. Would be nice to have some powder to buy back deeper. As I am 100% into bitcoin and have nothing else on the side lol
About to make the decision I talked here before to sell 10% of my Bitcoin at certain stages. 69k was the first stage to sell 1%. But I’m ok with 67k right now. I have the feeling we will dump further and stabilize until few months after halving. Would be nice to have some powder to buy back deeper. As I am 100% into bitcoin and have nothing else on the side lol
Yes, but you can take my opinion with a dose of salt as I've been sceptical about this rally since $48K
According to Pi Cycle Top, as discussed elsewhere, $70K is either the mid-cycle top (like in 2019, 2016 and 2012), prior to a correction and consolidation, or this is the late-stage top, ie start of full blown bull market, like in 2020, 2017 and 2013. Based on time, I see this as a mid-stage not a late-stage top, especially given this indicator has "factored in" a new ATH being at this mid-stage top, and has previously been the most accurate at identifying these types of tops. This would otherwise be the first time there has been no "mid-stage correction" in Bitcoin's history, so while possible, the argument is that "this time it's different" - which is a fair argument given the introduction of ETFs and new ATH already. But only time will tell whether this is actually true or not, with the recent break of ATH not being enough to justify that speculative opinion as of yet.
More than anything I think ETFs are following the price, not leading it. There has been net inflows on the way up and net outflows on the way down generally speaking, even if they are helping to drive the price in both directions. All it will take is for GBTC to offload the rest of their coins, which may only take a couple of months from here, but until then and seeing net outflows, there remains selling pressure.
Based on price alone, either $69K breaks to the upside and price rallies further, or otherwise $60K breaks to the downside, leaving a pretty sizeable volume gap down to $52K at best, but more realistically $42K to $44K (which would still be a macro higher low). Also within a couple of months the 50 Week MA will be around these prices too, so bullish continuation could start from there quite easily. Based on 200 WMA projection, it should be around $37K by August (that was also a consolidation level) and would be a full -50% haircut, which is about as low as I see price going for now, if the correction lasted 4 months.
I'm otherwise overlooking the shorter-term TA on 4hr, as while price is currently confirming resistance around $68K (bearish trending 50 MA and ichimoku cloud at volume point of control), this could all still be broken with ease after another re-test of the 200 MA that previously supported the price perfectly (as expected in strong uptrends) and is currently around $62K. Too early to tell comes to mind here.
Nice Analysis from you.
The market is simply looking for more zones to liquidate before any move, as you have said its too early to sell now. Currently looking from the 2hr chart we can see that bitcoin might likely test $61k before any move since there is a strong support level before raiding the highs, Technically.
I would suggest any part sell can begin after the halving, but now we should be looking forward to accumulate as much as we can.
March 21, 2024, 09:01:14 PM
March 21, 2024, 08:54:50 PM
Dang it
March 21, 2024, 08:01:18 PM
March 21, 2024, 07:03:23 PM
March 21, 2024, 06:03:36 PM
March 21, 2024, 05:01:22 PM
March 21, 2024, 04:01:16 PM
March 21, 2024, 03:39:58 PM
Are we back? 
$68K in one hour
We are definitely back and this time is with enough energy that can possibly put us far above the previous ATH. $68K in one hour
As usual, there will be minor turbulence if the below holds water:
Source: https://coinmarketcap.com/community/post/334841115
It may be a stupid question, but considering what happened with the liquidation of long positions and futures options a few days ago (about $1.5 billion), what impact will the liquidation of almost $10 billion have on the price? Can we assume that another correction is inevitable, especially if ETFs inflows are at the levels we have had in the last few days?
One thing that is certain is that traders will do what they are good at doing, they are loyal to one thing which is the profit. So, often we will experience huge liquidation and that is how the market movement of impulse and correction is maintained.
March 21, 2024, 03:03:29 PM
Anyone else thinks this is a fake relief rally? I’m
About to make the decision I talked here before to sell 10% of my Bitcoin at certain stages. 69k was the first stage to sell 1%. But I’m ok with 67k right now. I have the feeling we will dump further and stabilize until few months after halving. Would be nice to have some powder to buy back deeper. As I am 100% into bitcoin and have nothing else on the side lol
About to make the decision I talked here before to sell 10% of my Bitcoin at certain stages. 69k was the first stage to sell 1%. But I’m ok with 67k right now. I have the feeling we will dump further and stabilize until few months after halving. Would be nice to have some powder to buy back deeper. As I am 100% into bitcoin and have nothing else on the side lol
Yes, but you can take my opinion with a dose of salt as I've been sceptical about this rally since $48K
According to Pi Cycle Top, as discussed elsewhere, $70K is either the mid-cycle top (like in 2019, 2016 and 2012), prior to a correction and consolidation, or this is the late-stage top, ie start of full blown bull market, like in 2020, 2017 and 2013. Based on time, I see this as a mid-stage not a late-stage top, especially given this indicator has "factored in" a new ATH being at this mid-stage top, and has previously been the most accurate at identifying these types of tops. This would otherwise be the first time there has been no "mid-stage correction" in Bitcoin's history, so while possible, the argument is that "this time it's different" - which is a fair argument given the introduction of ETFs and new ATH already. But only time will tell whether this is actually true or not, with the recent break of ATH not being enough to justify that speculative opinion as of yet.
More than anything I think ETFs are following the price, not leading it. There has been net inflows on the way up and net outflows on the way down generally speaking, even if they are helping to drive the price in both directions. All it will take is for GBTC to offload the rest of their coins, which may only take a couple of months from here, but until then and seeing net outflows, there remains selling pressure.
Based on price alone, either $69K breaks to the upside and price rallies further, or otherwise $60K breaks to the downside, leaving a pretty sizeable volume gap down to $52K at best, but more realistically $42K to $44K (which would still be a macro higher low). Also within a couple of months the 50 Week MA will be around these prices too, so bullish continuation could start from there quite easily. Based on 200 WMA projection, it should be around $37K by August (that was also a consolidation level) and would be a full -50% haircut, which is about as low as I see price going for now, if the correction lasted 4 months.
I'm otherwise overlooking the shorter-term TA on 4hr, as while price is currently confirming resistance around $68K (bearish trending 50 MA and ichimoku cloud at volume point of control), this could all still be broken with ease after another re-test of the 200 MA that previously supported the price perfectly (as expected in strong uptrends) and is currently around $62K. Too early to tell comes to mind here.
Thanks! Since I have no clue about trading and reading charts, this is helpful. What I have a clue about (or experience in) are the fake rallies after some “good news” whales use to create fomo. And that Jerome Powell news from yesterday was the perfect reason for whales to create another fake pump just do dump very hard later. They did this so many times that I’m so sick of this strategy. But of course there is always the chance that “this time it’s different”. Well I missed to sell at 67-68k. Now I won’t sell at 65-66k. Either I wait for another small pump or I take my coins off Binance and go into hodl mode again.
Just be aware that selling around ATH is historically a very risky strategy. But also, depends on your exposure how much your selling etc. If you're 100% invested, then sure, you could be overexposed here, even if price were to go to the upside, you wouldn't be "losing" much by holding 90%. Especially if you'd feel more comfortable having some dry powder for a potential correction.
Often I think it's less about whether price is more likely to go up or down, but what you feel more comfortable with, or which scenario you'd prefer to be. Ie, would you prefer to have 10% capital for a potential correction, or prefer to be 100% in rather than 90% if there were further upside? That's the real question here. To me that'd be a no brainier, as I'm not as greedy as I used to be, but everyone is different.
...but what you REALLY think? Surely, it could up or down, as always.
What's the probabilities, as @JJG likes to post from time to time?
If bitcoin is 37K by August, all ETF holders will be out of it and ETF "project" crashes and burns.
ETF investors are not accustomed to more than 50% haircuts in a few months.
They will be out and stay out.
What's the probabilities, as @JJG likes to post from time to time?
If bitcoin is 37K by August, all ETF holders will be out of it and ETF "project" crashes and burns.
ETF investors are not accustomed to more than 50% haircuts in a few months.
They will be out and stay out.
Not sure if you were asking me, but at present I'd say 50/50 further upside. With $60K breaking I'd be 60/40 for further downside. With $69K breaking to the upside I'd say 60/40 further upside. Not massively swaying in either direction here and from a trading perspective this is very much in a "no trade zone" when inbetween support and resistance. Hence emphasis on too early tell. But also if you're not willing to sell below $60K (for obvious reasons), then you'd have to make a decision before then. Not gonna lie, some of the best analysts are suggesting that the cycle is over now with ETFs entering the space, which while I generally agree with, I don't believe it will be fully realised until GBTC selling is resolved. Either that, of net inflows returns to positive again, which again above $69K would be quite likely I think.
As for the idea that ETF investors will jump ship if price corrected in half, I think the opposite is true. They got in knowing price could correct 50% or further, and are instead much more likely to double down at a considerable discount, after some consolidation and price stability (ie not buying the dip per say), compared to retail who are known for panic selling. I don't think they are naive or going to be quick sellers, but instead they will happily sit back and let prices fall until strength returns to the market, as they have done this week, as is the norm for ETF investing, in order to buy strength not weakness. I think JJG might even agree with me to some degree on this point that ETF investors are more likely to be strong hands, that I'm slowly but surely coming round to, especially given the lack of selling over the recent correction. Even if this doesn't change the situation with GBTC outflows at present.
Obviously this is speculation that ETF holders will be strong hands, as is that they will be weak hands, when neither can be proven yet. But that's all we have to go on for now: speculation.
March 21, 2024, 03:03:26 PM
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