Anyone else thinks this is a fake relief rally? I’m
About to make the decision I talked here before to sell 10% of my Bitcoin at certain stages. 69k was the first stage to sell 1%. But I’m ok with 67k right now. I have the feeling we will dump further and stabilize until few months after halving. Would be nice to have some powder to buy back deeper. As I am 100% into bitcoin and have nothing else on the side lol
About to make the decision I talked here before to sell 10% of my Bitcoin at certain stages. 69k was the first stage to sell 1%. But I’m ok with 67k right now. I have the feeling we will dump further and stabilize until few months after halving. Would be nice to have some powder to buy back deeper. As I am 100% into bitcoin and have nothing else on the side lol
Yes, but you can take my opinion with a dose of salt as I've been sceptical about this rally since $48K
According to Pi Cycle Top, as discussed elsewhere, $70K is either the mid-cycle top (like in 2019, 2016 and 2012), prior to a correction and consolidation, or this is the late-stage top, ie start of full blown bull market, like in 2020, 2017 and 2013. Based on time, I see this as a mid-stage not a late-stage top, especially given this indicator has "factored in" a new ATH being at this mid-stage top, and has previously been the most accurate at identifying these types of tops. This would otherwise be the first time there has been no "mid-stage correction" in Bitcoin's history, so while possible, the argument is that "this time it's different" - which is a fair argument given the introduction of ETFs and new ATH already. But only time will tell whether this is actually true or not, with the recent break of ATH not being enough to justify that speculative opinion as of yet.
More than anything I think ETFs are following the price, not leading it. There has been net inflows on the way up and net outflows on the way down generally speaking, even if they are helping to drive the price in both directions. All it will take is for GBTC to offload the rest of their coins, which may only take a couple of months from here, but until then and seeing net outflows, there remains selling pressure.
Based on price alone, either $69K breaks to the upside and price rallies further, or otherwise $60K breaks to the downside, leaving a pretty sizeable volume gap down to $52K at best, but more realistically $42K to $44K (which would still be a macro higher low). Also within a couple of months the 50 Week MA will be around these prices too, so bullish continuation could start from there quite easily. Based on 200 WMA projection, it should be around $37K by August (that was also a consolidation level) and would be a full -50% haircut, which is about as low as I see price going for now, if the correction lasted 4 months.
I'm otherwise overlooking the shorter-term TA on 4hr, as while price is currently confirming resistance around $68K (bearish trending 50 MA and ichimoku cloud at volume point of control), this could all still be broken with ease after another re-test of the 200 MA that previously supported the price perfectly (as expected in strong uptrends) and is currently around $62K. Too early to tell comes to mind here.
...but what do you REALLY think? Surely, it could go up or down, as always.
What's the probabilities, as @JJG likes to post from time to time?
If bitcoin is 37K by August, all ETF holders will be out of it and ETF "project" crashes and burns.
ETF investors are not accustomed to more than 50% haircuts in a few months.
They will be out and stay out.
