Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 641. (Read 26468453 times)

Observing 73,127@Stamp




New ATH

Wen is chopper?
Wen  grim reaper?

CCMF




Old image with close enough number.

Not exact number, sorry

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
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All Credit to ChartBuddy

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

I probably was overstating my position, and to attempt to explain, since 2015, I largely had assessed myself to have had been in a state of over-accumulation, which allowed me to feel comfortable selling coins without worrying about whether I had enough, yet part of my ongoing problem had been that much of the time I kept the money available for rebuying coins, so largely I had been of the position that I had no treally been injecting new money into bitcoin since 2015 - even though the records are not really clear about whether new money had been coming in, and many times, it is my impression that I have not been injecting new money into my investment, but then in late 2022, my cash reserves had gotten so low that I did end up injecting more money into my cash reserves that were authorized for bitcoin sales.. - especially during that period in which the BTC price was below $20k for several months, yet at the same time when the BTC price returned in to the upper $20k and then even more assurance after October 2023 that our November 2022 bottom of $15,479 was in.. There was going to be no more bottom, so there could be some assurance to pull out the extra money that had gotten inserted into the system on a seemingly temporary emergency basis.

So technically there is still buying with money that is already in the system. .and that would be how it should be preferred, and my net selling of BTC should be greater than my net buying of BTC - even though several run throughs of my sustainable withdrawal system, as shown through bitmover's rendition of it, shows a kind of back testing through the simulation tool that even really aggressive levels of BTC withdrawal is likely going to end up with the dollar values continuing to grow, especially if we measure BTC's value from the 200-WMA.. and that even works through back testing of more recent periods especially something spanning over the last 5 years and a 30% per year withdrawal rate. I could not even come close to those levels of withdrawal which is largely showing that my withdrawal rate that is much smaller than even the more conservative levels... and I have been more into following the rake tool instead of the above linked monthly sustainable withdrawal tool.

Oh, and yeah, thanks for pointing out the glassnode data, and surely we have ideas how people act in theory and maybe sometimes we can see what they are doing in terms of the data that is available, so surely if a lot of guys start to release their coins between $73k and $120k I would be very surprised if enough coins were to be released in order to keep up with the seemingly increased demand that is coming through current BTC spot ETF inflows and the additional ETF inflows that are expected to continue to increase through 2024 and 2025  - and yeah, we could end up being surprised if such BTC spot ETF inflows do not continue to increase and put demand on BTC, so in some sense, we cannot necessarily take the inflows for granted... or even take for granted regarding how many current BTC HODLers are going to be willing to take some or all of their coins out of cold storage in order to sell to Blackrock, et al.

It is already very visually happening on the blockchain:

https://insights.glassnode.com/the-week-onchain-week-11-2024/


HFSP


You got multiple? Damn. Withdrawing the above comment, congrats.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

hahahahaha

And some of these guys who are shorting might not realize that we are still in no man's land, so the odds are not exactly in their favor to be shorting.. including that when we go through no man's land, yeah maybe we could get various corrections, but they are likely not going to be meaningful, and even if we make it through no man's land, there are limitations to the corrections that are available, and sure they might happen, but it is better to probably go with the trend rather than against it and perhaps start to think more seriously about shorts once we get into the $140k to $180k territory.. whether that is within a few weeks or a few months.. .. but yeah, they get anxious and they don't want to wait that long... and they want to gamble.. and so yeah, maybe it will work and maybe it won't.. I am leaning towards the won't side.. at least until we get a bit above $120k.


Maybe?

I am still thinking that it is pretty much the same.. 3 ups and a down, and so we will just look at how high it goes as we go and at some point it is likely to become unsustainable and we will need a lengthy correction.. but this time with BIGGER players engaged in some of the shenanigans and/or rug pulls or whatever other dramatic news ends up playing out.. when the longer term correction finally comes, and yeah, maybe the longer term correction does not end up going below $120k-ish.. who knows?  It partly depends upon where the top ends up being and how long it might take to get there.. whether it is a medium top in the $240 to $540 range.. or maybe it ends up slightly more bullish in the $540k to $1 million territory or maybe if it gets into the most extreme of the scenarios into the $1 million or more territories, then you know we gotta get some crashing back down from those kinds of price points... especially if it goes up too quickly at some point.. maybe even crashing back down 70% or more from the top to sub $500ks. to sub $300ks or even lower.. which also partially depends on where the top ends up being and how we ended up getting to such top.. in terms of both time and if there might have been some shenanigans on the way up. as well as shenanigans on the way down.. and if we are dealing with money, there are always going to be shenanigans.


Am I going too far?

I know my personal finances don't really rely on such or even give too many shits, but it is kind of difficult to ignore the outrageously limitations in supply in light of our current happenings.

Sure, as BTC price goes up, then quite a few HODLers, and even long term HODLers are going to let go of some (or all) of their coins, but I doubt that the released supply is going to be enough.. especially in the sub $120k territories.. yeah $120k to $180k we are likely going to get some additional releasing of coins from the haves to the have nots, but I still question whether the released coins are going to be enough to satisfy ongoing demand in either 2024 or in 2025.. so it seems even more bullish than usual, while at the same time, there are limitations in regards to how much BTC can pump in any particular cycle.. or at least it seems to be the case... .. so I hate to pin myself down too much, even in what I had been describing what seems to be a kind of base case based on current circumstances and knowns... and I am not buying more BTC.. I have enough and I have more than enough.. so there is that.. and there are likely several guys in this thread who have enough coins too... and who knows how many coins we are going to be releasing along the way. .some of us are gong to be releasing our coins, and I already pretty much have my release schedule already outlined . which does not even end up being very many coins sold.. but still lots of ongoing improvement in the needs to spend more..


Ok.   Hint taken.  I will have to go look for my duck suit equivalent.

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Don't over-analyze it. The numbers I posted are correct, but I didn't say before what I did with the other 80%.
In short, I made two "lucky" and largish equity investments sequentially. This amplified the rest of the portfolio quite a bit.
After that, I split my equity portfolio 50:50 with 50% money market fund (it is my "anchor" so I don't have to worry much about volatility) and 50% continued to be in speculative names, some of which were tech stocks. As you know, tech stocks did quite well in the last decade....so...here we are.

TL;DR Bitcoin did not reach 90% yet because equities did well (so far).

Fuck coinbase

and

fuck bitmex.


There is no need to reallocate for the mere sake of reallocation, just because traditional investment advisors make such recommendations (and some of the traditional investment advisors are forced to reallocate on a regular basis - including that some of them are forced to hold 70% government bonds, which truly has been a stupid and/or losing practice in the past several years. but they still make advisements that normies should do the same thing that they are required to do.

there is a great practice of allowing your winners to ride.

For my own investment history, I largely invested 10% into bitcoin by the end of 2014, but then I ended up overinvesting in 2015 to nearly 13.5% because the BTC price was down throughout 2015, and I still continued to buy...so that is how I got up to 13.5% invested into bitcoin, however, now my allocation is close to 90% and that is not because of my investing new value from bitcoin but instead because of it's appreciation relative to all my other investments.

So largely my other investments doubled in the last 10 years, but my bitcoin outpaced them all and so my bitcoin went up around 70x or more.. and so sure I had been shaving off some profits here and there over the last 10 years, but the investment largely was allowed to continue to ride.. and so the total amount that I have in cash is worth about 1.5x the total amount that I invested into BTC... although I still use that cash as working capital, but I can also spend it whenever I like too.. or I can just cash out a bit of bitcoin with a 70x profit at any time, too.. so to me it seems to not be a big deal to just let that the winner (BTC in this case) ride.. mostly.

Of course, since I was overinvested since late 2015, I have been using my rake system (represented in this post), and that is part of the reason that I have a lot of cash on hand, too.. but the cash is still less than 2.5% the size (value) of my BTC holdings.. but it is plenty if I need to draw upon it or to perhaps cash out a bit extra if I need it here and there along the way..

By the way, I recommend ONLY around a 5% to 25% allocation to bitcoin for newbies who are just entering into bitcoin, and surely they have to figure out their allocation, and so yeah, 25% would be on the side of more bullish and aggressive in regards to the bitcoin allocation, and 5% would be towards the side of whimpy... yet at the same time, I personally consider that reallocation is not really necessary, even though people have to figure out their allocation levels based on all of their own individual financial and psychological factors.


Other allocations would traditionally be considered as stocks, bonds, properties, commodities, cash and/or cash equivalents.

You can see how my allocations changed through the years at the bottom of this post.. starting from late 2013 until mid-2022.. I have not yet updated, but probably will update at or near the height of this current cycle rather than when we are largely seeming to be in the middle of this particular cycle (or maybe even early-middle of this cycle).


It is funny that you criticize me for my ongoing selling of BTC ever since $250.. but my allocation went from 13.5% to nearly 90% based merely on BTC price appreciation and inspite of my ongoing and various sells along the way.

I think that my allocation into bitcoin would be even higher if I had not exercised my ongoing sales along the way... and yeah, maybe we are just making all of this shit up.. but it's gotta somehow make sense..

I can hardly imagine in your own scenario how you would ONLY be at 66% to 70% if you had ONLY made 1 big sell and you supposedly allocated 20%, which is 6.5% more than me.

By the way, I am not completely aloof to the idea of buying various things, so there have been some changes in my investments over the last 10 years, but still a lot of whatever had been taken out of bitcoin - including that I probably already taken out quite a bit more than I invested (but who's counting.. not even counting the losses. .those don't really count, right?) .. .. anyhow. .I was kind of not wanting to go up to 90% so early in the cycle.. but what am I supposed to do? sell more and then what? what will I buy with it?  buy some headache?  Yeah, there might be some investment(s) that are not headaches.

Finishing my last margarita.

Off to bed even though it's barely after midnight local time.

Hopefully we'll all make money while I'm sleeping.

A new ATH tomorrow would be really pleasant.

Go Bitcoin go.

https://twitter.com/WholesomeMeme/status/1767748675550220597

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

You are so distracted on an ongoing basis.  

yes, there may be some value flowing into those other assets (commodities), but they are likely not going to move in terms of percentages like bitcoin will, even if you might possibly be correct about the order of flows, which that is even doubtful to be thinking about order of flows in that kind of way... because billions of dollars of flows into those other assets does not have the same effect as billions of dollars of flow into bitcoin.  In other words it takes way less capital to cause bitcoin to move the same amount.. or even multiples (and or magnitudes) more rapidly than those other assets.

So stop being so ongoingly distracted into largely irrelevant comparisons.


First.  When did you first start getting supposedly interested in actually holding onto bitcoin rather than selling it right away.. probably around 2018/2019 no?  The value your bitcoin should have had already surpassed your wives 401k.   Let me throw out some numbers, and you don't need to correct me (or confirm), but let's say that your wives 401k is worth around $750k.. so then that would generate about $3k per income per month in terms of a 4% withdrawal rate.

Now, if you had been investing into bitcoin (and/or diverting capital over to bitcoin, you could have had accumulated 10 bitcoin and you would already be close to surpassing the value of your wive's 401k.. at least in terms of BTC spot price..

I just like to blame you for failing to focus on accumulation through buying.. rather than what you seem to be doing is shaving off profits on such a regular basis and probably hoping to buy back cheaper, but then you chicken out when the BTC price drops, so instead of buying BTC, you sell your BTC and you buy IBonds, and you still seem to believe that was the correct course for your situation.

Let's just say that instead you had focused on $500 per week into bitcoin since the beginning of 2019 (is that even possible?), then you would have had invested right around $136k and you could have had accumulated 9.4615 BTC (currently valued at $681k) until now, so you would already be very close to surpassing your wive's 401k.

Am I picking on you too much?  I am even giving you the benefit of the doubt that you admit that you screwed up the earlier part of your BTC involvement by not hanging onto enough BTC during your earlier years of your BTC involvement, so I picked a date that I thought might be reasonable..

..but then now on reflection, maybe I am picking too early of a date?  Maybe you did not convert to a supposed BTC accumulator until a later date.  because, just now, I did do a quick look at your post history and holy fucking shit, it seems that you don't seem to have been involved in this WO thread until maybe late 2020 .. so fuck.. that kind of screws up the timeline for being able to accumulate enough coins to catchup to your wive's 401k...

Let me rework the numbers for a conversion into a BTC accumulator starting in late 2020.. Let's go with October 2020.

so we have to remember the time factor when it comes to building a position.. .. but if we are building we need to be building rather than fucking around with selling and trying to buy back cheaper and other distractions that don't involve strict and straight forward ongoing accumulation until we get to enough cornz.

If I consider your conversions in to actually wanting to accumulate and HODL your BTC rather than selling right away, then I would then have to double the weekly contribution, so that if you had been investing $1k per week since October 1, 2020, then you would have had invested $180k, and you currently would have about 6.124 BTC (yes quite a coincidence), but still notably not a bad place to be since it would currently would be worth $441k, which also would put you within site of surpassing your wives 401k within the year rather than needing to get through this whole cycle.

Second:  The other point that you make about surpassing your wife in 2026 makes hardly any sense in terms of current anticipated BTC cycles.

Are you even with the cycle thing?  3 ups and a down.  Currently, we are ONLY in the second up, so only 1 more up then we get a down.  Don't you know dat? dee basics?


Even if you have the right idea about shitcoin's being shit, it still is not a good idea to put your bitcoin at risk to bet against them.  They can pump way longer than any of us can stay solvent, so why put your bitcoin at risk when you have about as close of a thing to a sure bet just longing bitcoin.. the most that you can lose if you long bitcoin (without leverage) is 100% of your investment... and the upside has been really great, and bitcoin's investment thesis does not seem to be getting weaker, even if the magnitude of future pumps may well not be as large as the magnitude of bitcoin's pumps in the last 12 years-ish... but still each of us has to work with what we got.. and if we are just building our capital, then we just have to buy bitcoin and don't get too greedy with leverage. and why fuck around with either shitcoins and/or trading. when bitcoin is such a great investment by its lil selfie..


I still would not want to try to play that angle... it seems like a waste of brainpower and energy and potentially money, if it does not end up playing out that way.

So in that regard, it seems more of a sure bet that bitcoin is going to go up forever Laura rather than shitcoins might not unexpectedly pump for longer than they should and/or at unexpected times.


People do it.. and I am not personally going to get involved either way..  Fuck shitcoins and/or the waste of time of paying any close attention to them.... except maybe just as random entertainment, but nothing that I would want to actually financially and/or psychologically invest in, either direction.. besides just investing into bitcoin and staying focused on bitcoin, which already seems to be an investment  against shitcoins.


Oh gawd...  

Now we are talking about which shitcoin happens to be less shitty.

Give me a break.  

In my early days I invested some part in Ethereum but soon I realised that what's the point to invest in such Alt's that moves only when Bitcoin goes up. So why not invest in Bitcoin directly?
I have seen many people in my local boards getting benefit from Airdrops and I am too lazy to apply for that. I have a resolve to go for airdrops but struggling to accomplish my resolve.
0.1% is a safe bet if you are going to gamble with your money and yes it's fun too.   

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

Sleep tight.

I tip my glass (Margarita) to you.