kellrobinson, the base trend was pierced because people panicked about an unprecedented (in our lifetime) global pandemic. We recovered from people panic dumping very quickly & it’s now history. It was a totally isolated point & likely won’t happen again.
There’s definitely at least one more parabolic, face melting blowoff top for bitcoin.
In the next year or two, there isn't a hell of a lot of difference between the parabolic regression forecast (yellow) and the logistic regression forecast (blue). By that time, there will be occasion to re-evaluate anyway.
I think corn go up, probably another crazy FOMO boom, but FOMO not guaranteed.
I'm re-evaluating my projections based on a seat-of-the-pants feeling. The parabolic regression's projection just looks too steep.
The logistic probably isn't steep enough.
Remember y'all, these are minima traces.
So hungry honey badger gonna jump up and come down to rest sooner or later between those yellow and blue lines.
Lotta real estate between those lines, going out into the future. Can't be precise with this kind of stuff.
My two dinars.
I'd like to see how that looks with a terminal price of around $10Million rather than $500k. That's the price it needs to get to in order to be useful on a global scale. If it stops at $500k then it has failed and would likely go back to something much lower.
Since bitcoin has probably not reached its logistic inflection point yet, the results of a logistic regression are bound to be a crapshoot.
$10 million is about as good a guess as any other.
Here's a link to the equation that the regression calculator returned for my data
https://cdn.mathpix.com/snip/images/xJ-Ks3hpZ0PB2dqkwFNkk9bHFi45RXJpZund7Ase0ds.rendered.fullsize.pngYou can manipulate the parameters to get the curve you want.
The calculator I used:
https://www.aatbio.com/tools/four-parameter-logistic-4pl-curve-regression-online-calculatorYou need to look at the logistic curve on a linear chart to see the familiar symmetrical "sigmoid" shape with the inflection point at center.
The curve's appearance is deceptive on a log chart. That log chart makes it look like the inflection point happened several years ago.
The inflection point of the logistic curve I posted is actually in April 2029.
I am sorry, but this discussion is premature at best. Why fit something into a curve that is not supposed to fit?
Can you fit AAPL or AMZN into a formula? personalities, technology changes, etc , etc.
BTW, a curve suggesting 200K in 10 years is an impossibility. If it would go so slowly, it would fail long beforehand. People are impatient.
We are in a 3 year bear market and people already losing interest. The crowd is only excited if you have a parabola.
I understand S2F, but i don't get fitting btc into a regression or any other curve.