There is a science called "complex system theory".
The basic outline: If you respond to complex problems (like an exponentially spreading virus outbreak) with a simple solution, it is inevitable to fail.
There are many, many examples in history.
EDIT: And Boris is as simple as simple can be.
Is it a complex problem though? Or is it pretty simple - a virus is spreading which needs to be contained. Time will tell whether "flattening the curve" was the correct approach.
Agreed - Boris is an ass-hat. However, for once he's actually deferring these decisions to medical professionals.
There is a valid point of criticism on most decision makers at the time. They listen a lot to medical pros and virologists, but epidemiologists and economists are seen sparingly. These would be more important. So Boris leaves it up to fate. Well, good luck! The brits will need it.
A pandemic is indeed of complex nature, in all its details. It's defined by "uncontrolled" spread, world wide.
So you can't contain it, just slow it down.Admitting that it can't be contained and focussing on slowing it down so that the country's health service doesn't get overwhelmed is exactly what current British policy is attempting to do. Trying to smooth the curve. You seem to arguing against yourself here.
And no, I'm not defending BoJo. He's a fkn disaster for UK but at least he's not making unilateral decisions without any consultation.
We won't know for a while which countries over-reacted and which under-reacted. In the meantime, I have plenty of tea, crumpets and a stiff upper lip. Should suffice. Isolationism is in the British genes.
I think i know what you mean by arguing against myself.
But i am not really. There is just a very basic problem to decision making.
Most decisions are based on:
1. trying to achieve something
2. trying to avoid something
Very basic, as i said.
When you try to achieve something through actions, you have to closely watch that you don't support developments which finally result in what you tried to avoid. These are many things, most of the time. Good example to this: Trump. He puts actions to achieve MAGA goals, but almost all of them backfire. Why? Because his principles follow method no.1 without respecting method no.2.
That's where economists end epidemiologists would come in handy. The latter can project the spread, while the former are able to evaluate the unwanted outcomes.
Populism goes in the other direction. Assume some more damage.
There is only one thing that is worse than making a decision: Delaying actions and ignoring developments by
not making decisions. This is what Italy, Europe and the US did until a week ago. Waiting out. Which will show its fatal consequences soon. The UK is a week or two behind. Optimism did not do anything to solve a problem, ever.
Any country has the leadership they choose. Power is not taken, it is given.
Even in democracy, we can choose our temporary dictatorship. Like a sheep would choose between knife or stunbolt gun.
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