Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 8471. (Read 26715635 times)

May 2017

2021

when Moon? 

I'm in

10 K

TO DAY

10K

TO DAY

10K

TO DAY

THEN WE GO STREAK IN THE QUAD

WHO'S WITH MEEEE!!!


WOOOOOOOOOOO!

he was in whale pool a lot. I left cos its all just broadcast, no one listening

I used to speak to rjclarke2000 a lot when I first signed up here. I hope he’s still HODLING!

Hahahahaha

rjclarke2000 loves those kinds of extra digits, too, but have not seen him in these here parts for a while.

Technical analysis does not have to be too complicated for those trading long term (over six month time frame.) A very simple indicator would have gotten you long at all the significant bottoms over the last 5 years. Just put up a 3 day BTC/USD chart using Bitstamp. Overlay the RSI indicator. Buy when RSI is under 23 and hold. I am surprised not that many analysts have recommended this setup. These signals are infrequent but worth the wait. Exiting is also easy though not as accurate: when RSI is over 92 it is a very good idea to lighten up on your longs.

That comes off as a bit of a strong statement, because I don't really tend to analyze the more negative scenarios because currently, I consider them to be relatively low probability events, but yeah, I don't mind analyzing and considering less bullish scenarios and even bearish scenarios that become more probable because of some changes in BTC price movement momentum or even if some other circumstances might change what factors need to be considered... I mean currently a lot of the altcoins are pumping way the fuck more than I believe is healthy or to have been probable, and so if we get more into a situation of continued outrageous altcoin pumpenings, I may have to reconsider some of my framework, including considering how those dynamics could end up impacting bitcoin in either a positive or a negative way.


Sure, but we also have changing factors too... We all know the expression that history does not repeat itself, even if it might have tendencies to rhyme.



Cannot disagree with these assessments, and I suppose that you are including some of the new investment vehicles that have come into existence since late 2017, such as various BIGGER financialization vehicles, such as futures that can push BTC's price in either direction, but also exacerbate explosive BTC price movements, too.



I would hate to attempt to narrow down causal relationships too much in regards to what had caused the 2017 BTC price run, and surely liquidity is NOT going to change a whole lot in a short period of time, such BTC entrance and exit vehicles as what was already in place by the time we got to the turbulent period that seemed to have kind of had its roots in the mid-2017 forkening drama that was largely resolved in BTC's favor and seemed to have had contributed to some of the outrageousness of the price moves in the BTC direction.  Of course, shitcoins tagged along for that, and they might have even contributed additional liquidity avenues including some subsequent moves into bitcoin during the 2018 crashening...



I agree and really believe that my throwing out 1/4 remains quite conservative and likely seems to be playing into considering the more bearish scenarios... even while at the same time, many of us hate to really spout out ideas that are too presumptuous in the bullish direction, even though we are simultaneously preparing ourselves for such possible outrageous bullishness by planning on NOT running out of BTC in case the BTC price goes way the fuck beyond those more conservative 1/4 talking points.

Then like last time, we can say that we were surprised as fuck that BTC performed 3x to 5x greater than our most bullish expectations.  That is what happened in 2017 for me. I continued to tell people that BTC performed about 3x to 5x beyond my most bullish of expectations, but I was kind of lying too.. because if I really expected BTC to only go to $3k or $5k at the best, then I would have sold more BTC when it reached $3k to $5k or even when it went higher but I did not, and I am NOT disappointed with myself at all.

So, again, BTC prices can go flying off the handle into prices that are much greater than the more conservative 1/4 the volatility estimates, and many of us can say that we are surprised as fucked and even say that we are shocked.. as we are laughing our largely erring on the side of HODL BTC bags all the way to the bank.



I doubt that anyone is saying that $350k-ish would be sustainable in the next 3-5 years, even if BTC might reach that amount... but there are likely some folks who would argue that a BTC correction back down to $30k to $50k would be considerably sustainable... even though such prices would be still part of future likely hype cycles and maybe only sustainable for a year or two before the next hype cycle..

So, yeah, bitcoin might not topple gold in this hype cycle or even the next couple of hype cycles, and maybe in 12 years, bitcoin might be looking back at gold in the "objects appear larger mirror" because there had already been some bouncenings past golds market cap on several occasions and then at some point gold is just left in the dust.. and sure  it could take a bit of time for BTC to end up resting comfortably and sustainably above those gold market cap levels.



I am o.k. with a 1/10 reduction too.

I like to consider myself to be more of a descriptive kind of thinker and investor rather than a prescriptive one... so I just go with the flow.. and I am already at a stage in which my plans are not going to change too much whether bitcoin is $10k, $30k, $100k or even $300k +    Yeah, of course, the higher bitcoin's price, the more extravagant that I am going to live, but I am NOT going to be changing my plans very much if this next bubble ends up being 1/10 rather than 1/2 of the 2017 bubble... and I also don't think that experiencing only a 1/10 bubble is going to either destroy bitcoin or even largely interfere with its value proposition, but yeah of course, the BIGGER the bubble, the more that BIG players treat bitcoin more seriously... but in the end, I doubt that honey badger gives too many shits..

By the way, ivomm, these are thoughts off the top of my head, so maybe I am playing too much devil's advocate for my own good?  I don't really disagree in a strong way to anything that you said.

It is his channel (dr Peterson) bit of weird video all round.

Like one recorded forcibly by terrorists.


I know JP would say don't follow me. Find your own bloody way.

He also accepts the fact life can be bloody tough and its unfair in nature.


Being brainy can be a curse, Id rather have the light on but you deal with futility.

^^
What a coincidence..., damn bastards.

To me, the moon stash status is going to be a product of both time and where a guy (or gal) would have been at when getting into BTC, and it is just seeming that a greater than 6-year time period in BTC  is going to provide an opportunity to have had experienced two upward cycles, so maybe amongst the lower end of the timeline of reaching a possibility of richie status - without having had to engage in too much gambling-like practices.

Of course, if anyone is really early into his/her investment into bitcoin (meaning that s/he does not have a lot of capital to invest or even much of a cashflow), then even six years or two upward BTC price cycles would NOT have been enough of an increase in value or even a building of a beginning portfolio to reach richie status, without a lot of gambling and luck (which we should not be structuring our investments to be over-reliant upon luck)... and surely, I am amongst the last of folks to recommend employing very much gambling and luck, even if such practices might pay off for some folks.

So yeah, a person who does not have a lot of cash flow, might have to have a timeline that is in the 15 year plus arena in order to really feel comfortable that his/her level of investment into BTC is going to create the foundations for achieving richie status.... there is only so much practicality that can be done to reach richie status.

If someone who was somewhat established financially, meaning that they had a decent amount of capital already, had just heard about BTC in late 2017, and that person began to invest in BTC at that time with a dollar cost averaging approach and maybe aggressively attempted to establish their BTC stake, then currently, they should be decently in the green as long as they were somewhat consistently spreading out their dollar cost averaging and buying on dips and perhaps even engaging in some front loading of their investment into BTC. 

Of course, someone coming into bitcoin with capital in late 2017 would have been better off to wait for the dip below $10k, but no one really knows for sure, and maybe they have to adjust their strategy a little bit in terms of playing the longer term and having cash for buying on dips..   Even someone coming into bitcoin in late 2017 should have been able to accomplish minimum level of due diligence and to have seen that bitcoin had risen about 78x in the two preceding years.  So, starting to get into bitcoin in late 2017 may not have really been easy to accomplish that in any kind of comfortable way... but still such person should be currently in profits as long as they had thought through the matter and had taken a longer view regarding his/her investment horizon, but still a decently long way away from fuck you status or moon status, and may even want to wait until the next cycle to be comfortable with cashing out.. even though going to $100k would likely be well over 10x in profits.. that is if BTC prices get there in this cycle. 

So, surely, even well-to-do persons with a decent amount of capital to put into bitcoin who got into bitcoin in late 2017 might not be feeling moon status until going through a couple of the anticipated hype wave events.. presuming that such hype cycles are likely happen in some manner that is somewhat in accordance with the various currently acceptable BTC price prediction models... that are also not guaranteed, even though such BTC price prediction models seem to be getting wider-spread acceptance.

Aaaaaaaaand...

Frank Plummer, top scientist at the Canadian lab where the Chinese apparently stole the original strain...dies suddenly in Africa.

You can't make this stuff up folks.

not too far behind!..

@BinaryOverdose
#bitcoin  over 10k on at least one exchange🚀🚀🚀




When Stamp......

Hey El duderino!  rdbase commissioned an upgrade to your Big Lebowski avatar.
Careful man, there's a beverage here!



 avatar-sized

Thank you for the kind words. I have found Fibonacci extensions to be very valuable in projecting price action. Times have changed since the last parabolic rise and history does not have to repeat itself. Bitcoin still reigns with highest market cap and first mover advantage. I give odds about 60% that we will see a new ATH within the next two years and the first Fibonacci extension projection is at $24166.



There are some hurdles to overcome first. Ten grand is a significant first psychological barrier then when that falls and holds on volume we can start thinking about a new ATH. Times have changed and futures on bitcoin may tend to dampen a new parabolic rise. I don't see prices higher than $25000 impossible though, just lower probability over the next year or two.

The next higher Fibonacci extension past 1.27 is the 1.618 at $29,890. I don't think $100,000 is impossible within the next two years, just low probability. I would be happy with steady growth and adoption with real use of the Lightning network. Thirty thousand in three years but I could be too conservative: would be glad to be proven wrong.