By doubling I was simply referring to last year (2019) with a desire to see the trend continuing sans large spikes and drawdowns.
Agreed.
2019 was a doubling of fiat value; that's for sure.
In another thread, I have already been criticized for somewhat selectively stating that point and also I had stated that so far this year, we are up more than 30% (well currently it is about 36%). So, yeah overall 2019 was a good performing year, but we also have to kind of put the matter in context of having had started very close to the bottom of the drowntrend that drug nearly to the end of 2018.
I just don't think that we can expect some kind of gradual incline, and even if we look at 2019, it was quite the ride that got us through that whole process, and surely lucky to be up nearly 100% for the calendar year.
Many of us anticipate that BTC is ramping up for an upburst, yet it is still uncertain whether we could expect 100% for 2020 and another 100% for 2021, but we also know that there are quite a few of us (and surely I am inclined in that direction too) who are kind of anticipating that 2020 and 2021 are going to at least average !00% for each of those two years by the time we get to the end of 2021.. which would be a mere $28,700 (/2 = $14,350 /2 = $7,175). So, yeah the next two years may well be decently performing years, but we have to prepare for extreme volatility - which seems quite likely too.
I think that you, Biodom, anticipate such likely considerable volatility too - even though you might be just hoping for a more gradual wave sequence that is amongst the lesser likely scenarios.
Surely, we are going to find out.. and surely the next couple of years seem to be quite critical
tm in showing us how closely BTC price is likely to track the stock to flow and 4 year fractal model or if any kind of doubt starts to build regarding whether more appropriate models might apply.
No way am I hostile to the theories that bitcoin's price swings might become less severe into the future with a growing market capitalization - but still we had a decent 78x in the 2015 to 2017 growth period, so even a 1/4 of that level of growth is going to put BTC into quite high territories, even if we were to use the current absolute bottom of $3,124 as our starting point - even though I believe that a $6k-ish bouncing off point would probably be more representative of BTC's bouncing off point.... but a 1/4 the volatility which is a 20x still puts BTC's high at anywhere between $65k and $120k.... and maybe you are wanting to go lower than 1/4 of the volatility.. which seems to erring on the side of almost fantasized conservatism in what are likely to be forces underlying BTC's upcoming price forces.
So, yeah, it is possible that the upcoming bubble (if it happens) will be less than 1/4 the size of the 2015-2017 bubble, even though we really have not been witnessing evidence of such conservativism, and really we have likely been witnessing evidence that bitcoin is even more bullish and even more frontloaded in the ability to perform beyond such conservative constraints. I like to be conservative too, and not to count my eggs before they are hatched, but such conservativism, if it plays out, is likely going to justify tweaking our currently most historically conforming price prediction models a quite a bit towards the downside... so we will see, we will see.
I am not going to deny that powerful forces are likely going to try to manipulate such BTC price prediction models down or to make us believe them to NOT be true, but I just have my doubts about if they can be successful, especially if we are looking at 2 years or more for the price movements to potentially play out.... they are going to likely try to manipulate down and overdo it, and what happens is exactly the opposite of what you want, which is an explosion to the upside that is NOT sustainable.
Each scenario must be analyzed, including the most negative one. If we are talking about the top of the bull market in the next 4 years, we have to take into account all the factors that have influenced the price in the last 4 years. The question is which factors will be absent and would affect the peak reduction. The difference from $ 175 to $ 19666 is 112x. 1/4 reduction is 28x. One factor is the liquidity of the most bearish exchange, which participates in the price formation. The other factor is the FOMO mania caused by the media at the end of 2017.
In my opinion, the FOMO effect at the end of 2017 did not increase the liquidity. On the contrary, people went to buy shitcoins and miners because they thought bitcoin was very expensive. So the jump to 20K was something that should have happened, even slightly delayed by the numerous bans in China.
Concerning liquidity, there should be signs of a decrease, expressed in lower percentage peaks than in the previous period. So far, I see no objective factors for such a huge 1/4 drop. We even have a double ahead of growth - in July 2019 and the present. After the halving, if FUD is not successful, this overtaking can only increase.
However, on the one hand, the price of 349K (112x) seems too high and comes close to the price of gold. On the other hand, the way the Bitcoin exchanges operate is very different from that of gold exchanges. In Bitcoin exchanges the volatility is very high for a number of reasons. Jumps of 20-40% in one day are normal, and they are determined by the avalanche elimination of short positions. So, even without a rise in liquidity, these things happen. Of course, this cannot go on forever. At some point, liquidity may start to stall.
For example, at 1/10 reduction, we would have a peak of 35K (11x). To me, this is the absolute minimum, in the absence of extremely bad news/FUD that would permanently damage the market. With a 1/4 reduction we would have a peak of 87K (28x). Perhaps the most likely option is a 1/3-1/2 reduction with a peak between 120K and 180K.
actually making some sense; on masks 
