Btc/Usd
For the short term i'm watching the yellow EMA line, which currently acts as a support on the 4h chart. The 4h candle closed above it. Currently the yellow line is around 10.270 Usd. If it stays above it will be bullish. If not we will find other support.
You sound undeniably correct.
BTC's price is going to go down until it stops going down, and if it does not stop going down where it should stop, then BTC's price is going to go down more.
I have learned a lot about bitcoin and about myself from such observations.
The chart helps to make that point, too.. Comes off as more professional.
I don't know about you but i buy on the support bounce. So i bought some back. If it reaches my target between 10.800 and 11.000 i sold 3 times already there. Yes it goes up and down but i tell where is the support (buy) and where resistance (sell). If it goes bellow support it means sell. (well i trade only 20% of my holdings, i never sell all.) Trader has to be prepared for both ways.
...This time, around, I don't really care, and I am fine with just continuing to follow my system that only sells small amounts on the way up and also buys back on the way down in intervals that are reasonable for me, and the tweaking this time around is to spread the intervals even more than they had been the first time around, but otherwise I am largely keeping with my system because I like it..
So, yeah a week or two ago, in our run up to a bit above $11k, I made several sales on the way up, and bought back at various points between about $10k and $9,400, and in this last run up to nearly $11k, I had a few BTC sell orders trigger, so the more that triggered, the higher my buy back points are. I have sell orders on different exchanges so some of them triggered and some of them did not, but so far in this particular most recent correction, from today, NONE of my BTC buy back orders have triggered yet, and most of them are set for a little bit below $10k.
In my earlier days, I would have had both my BTC buy orders and my BTC sell orders more tightly structured; however, these days I am more happy with larger intervals and my goal and recent practice has been to increase and increase and increase the integers in which such orders are triggered.
Another way of conceptualizing my strategy towards my BTC holdings has been to attempt to create my BTC buy/sell orders in such a way that I am largely NOT too much attached to price direction.. neither psychologically nor financially.
Of course, I profit more from upwards BTC price movements, but it is also in my thinking that inevitably in the longer term BTC's price is much more likely to go up than it is to go down, but in the meantime, I am profiting from volatility in such a way that it causes me to become less and less concerned about BTC's price going down.
Also, I have a plan that is projected into the future of starting to liquidate 1% of the value of my BTC stash per quarter, so long as the BTC price is not below $5k, and I am thinking that I will start to employ that particular plan in a few years, and I think that there are real decent chances that the BTC price is not going to go below $5k in the coming years or to interfere with my tentative liquidation plan, and if BTC's price does go below $5k, then I will just plan to hold off on cashing out my 1% during any such quarters that the BTC price does go below $5k, if such periods of low BTC price performance were to come, once I start my liquidation plan.
The strategy of constantly selling and buying has one weakness: it produces LOTS of tax obligations during periods of fast btc growth.
Yes. You are nearly 100% correct. This is a problem in a lot of jurisdictions, and maybe part of the reason to work towards spacing out the increments more and more. Hopefully some of these kinds of tax problems will become less burdensome in the future.... but until now, it is a burdensome problema.
Theoretically, if someone was selling extensively, then re-buying in 2017, then watching btc declining to 3k while having serious tax obligations resulting in a need to a selling of the additional chunk at a suboptimal (low) price.
Of course, this would not be the case when ample cash is available to pay the tax.
In other words, in high taxing environment, this strategy might backfire.
Those kinds of matters should be factored in, including making sure all of your tax obligations are covered with whatever strategy that you employ. That is correct.
On the other hand, trying to sell at the top could be a difficult undertaking as well. The local top is currently projected (by various authors) to be anywhere between 30K and 400K. Tough choice.
There are NOT too many folks who recommend attempting to time the top in any kind of solid way, or even playing with large parts of your BTC value that would mean selling everything at the top. Like I had mentioned several times earlier, in our past growth from $250-ish to $19,666, many less bullish folks had considered $1,000 to be the top, and more bullish folks had considered $3k to $5k to be the maximum top, but of course, the growth period went way the fuck beyond $3k to $5k - in the 3x to 5x arena, so yeah, people who cashed out BIG in that range might not have even been able or lucky enough to buy back at a price to even break even.. fuck!!!!! I personally still think that incrementalism is way the fuck the best, and even with incrementalism, you are paying taxes only on your profits, and it certainly should ONLY be a fraction of your holdings, as compared with attempting to play it BIG and getting the matter wrong in a BIG way, too.
HM here favors 180K (don't know where the number came from, maybe just personal preference).
Yeah but Hairy also changes his number from time to time and also seems to both work within a range, and I even doubt that he is playing with 100% of his stash, even when he is making relatively BIG moves. I don't know, maybe hairy can clarify a bit more in this regard.
My current feel is to allocate certain % for a sale, then sell once a personal preference is set in 1/10 fractions of the final number of btc sells. I intend to sell only up to 20% of my btc at the next ATH, knowing fully well that the rest would probably correct to 20% of the value. Why? Because I don't want to lose my position due to unforeseen price trajectory changes (like a double peak of 2013)..
To me, that seems like a totally reasonable plan, but I get criticized a whole hell of a lot for being way the fuck too conservative and also hanging onto too much of my stash during price swings, including buying back BTC too early. Even though I don't completely agree with the various criticisms directed towards my approach, currently, I have pretty solid plans to spread out my intervals more and also NOT to buy back at such a small interval. I think that both things are going to help me, but then again historically, I have largely been a BIG ASS HODLer, and I think that part of my reason for remaining such a BIG ASS HODLer happened been partly caused by the level of my personal profits only going into an about 20x area.. Perhaps a little bit more. That still made me potentially rich, but then I did not really feel compelled to sell very much because my cashflow and all of that was already covered without even considering my BTC value.
If things really go as bullish as we tentatively expect in this next time around, then my profits could get into the 100x to 200x arena, and based on decent amounts of capital.. not just high school or college level kids cashflow numbers, which might cause me to cash out a bit more, just for shits and giggles.. however, part of the problem is then attempting to figure out where I would like to put such extra cashing out value... There will be a bit of a dilemma for me, that it would be better for me to attempt to resolve ahead of time, rather than trying to figure out that channeling of funds issue during another exponential BTC price rise, if that were to come again.
