Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 9737. (Read 26630741 times)
July 24, 2019, 07:46:11 PM
Oh hi there
July 24, 2019, 07:45:25 PM
woah
July 24, 2019, 07:41:59 PM
My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
Then you should address your question to the person who put this model together:
https://stephanlivera.com/episode/86/
Go to minute 29:00 onward, PlanB is going to answer to your question.
jbreher is right: People is simply not aware of the model and the halving effect on the stock to flow.
To be clear, I am not saying that the stock:flow model is definitive. I am saying that the eventual price is very high, due to the endemic properties of crypto as money. And that getting from a price of Zero to a price of FuckYou is bound to take significant time, and be very chaotic along the way.
The stock:flow model is simply an empirical model that seems to roughly explain the observed underlying reality. IMNSHO.
I expect anyone that trades with any expectation of fidelity to the S:F model will likely do well on average, but likely be wiped out at some point along the way where that fidelity breaks down completely.
We humans like things in neat little predictable buckets. But while markets are derived from human behavior, price predictions are not amenable to mere mathematical analysis.
This is fair. Except fidelity does hold, albeit on an extremely macro level.
Year on year we have only once made a lower low in a following year, and then only by a whisker in the depths of cryptowinter.
July 24, 2019, 07:31:08 PM
As for there being a "limited supply", is this not simply a variable, able to be changed at the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors?
"Changing" it would result in an immediate hard fork and considering the economic majority would not support it it would probably be rendered worthless (the hardforked chain I mean). It would be a chaotic event that would have some significant impact on price overall though. The one entity losing the most would be the one causing the hard fork and drop in price.
It is basically the same as if the richest people in the world decided to airdrop all their billions to the rest of the population. FIAT value would drop relative to other assets, but they would be the more directly impacted.
In other words, the most powerful network contributors have a very high economic incentive to just play by the consensus rules.
July 24, 2019, 07:27:21 PM
As for there being a "limited supply", is this not simply a variable, able to be changed at the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors?
No. It would require a consensus among 51% of the miners to change the protocol or a successful 51% attack, neither of which is likely to happen. It is hard to overstate just how incredibly improbable that would be. And should it happen then it would no longer be bitcoin.
Back to the primary motivation of fiat return (and potential loss), I see - is this how most people see bitcoin? A purely speculative asset and/or tool for gambling?
Sure a lot of them do. A lot of others see different/more reasons. I consider it a store of value not related to fiat return. That's an admittedly long (very) view. It's also a world computer. And a way to take control of your own financial power without middle men, with the concurrent responsibility of being very up to date on security.
July 24, 2019, 06:51:37 PM
In seriousness I'll try and answer you a bit here:
I am compelled to follow up - why should anyone invest in bitcoin? Fiat return? Future potential for fiat return? Value retention? Acquisition of secure digital assets/property?
Why? Fiat Return, definitely the trend over the last five years has been a resounding yes, future potential is of course there, value retention definitely, and of course if you have the coins in a wallet that is yours (not an exchanges) your keys means your coins.
I am compelled to follow up - why should anyone invest in bitcoin? Fiat return? Future potential for fiat return? Value retention? Acquisition of secure digital assets/property?
Why? Fiat Return, definitely the trend over the last five years has been a resounding yes, future potential is of course there, value retention definitely, and of course if you have the coins in a wallet that is yours (not an exchanges) your keys means your coins.
Thank you, kingcolex, for the clear response.
Although I'm not totally unfamiliar with SHA256 and the concept of sovereign ownership (I find these things quite interesting), I see that you've highlighted fiat return as a primary reason for financial investment into the bitcoin project.
I invest in Bitcoin due a to a few things, what I learned from dealing with Foreign investors who had strict government restrictions (China) on how much money they were allowed to bring out of the nation, wiring delay times, proof of funds, proof of ownership of funds and sourcing of funds. Bitcoin solves all of this without a company at the center that can freeze or control user funds, it can't go bankrupt and there is a limited number of coins that will never change.
Although I've heard these points made previously, I appreciate your restating of them, as I believe some of these innovations will have massive implications with regards to the way the global economy evolves.
As for there being a "limited supply", is this not simply a variable, able to be changed at the discretion of the largest and most powerful network contributors?
I believe JJG was trying to get at that when you own some (even a small bit) you could experience these things all for yourself, you can also sign messages with your wallet that proves that you are the one in control of the funds which is a neat way to prove who is who and who owns what and I definitely think it does help one understand the technology.
This is very intriguing - are there any guides or tutorials that explain exactly how to do this?
You can read all about stocks, but nothing helps you understand a market like owning a couple of shares yourself. That is all the same with Crypto and Bitcoin.
I'm still not sure that this is necessarily true.
I'm not even sure it's worth continuing to suggest investing, to be honest. Does it further the discussion regarding technical understanding? Does it do anything other than simply pressure others to join "your side"?
If you have an amount you can immediately peg it to a fiat amount you paid and in 1 month, 6 months, 1 year see how this crypto market really works and how it moves. No skin in the game leads to loss of focus and paying attention, I know I pay a lot more attention to markets where I am fiscally vulnerable.
Back to the primary motivation of fiat return (and potential loss), I see - is this how most people see bitcoin? A purely speculative asset and/or tool for gambling?
July 24, 2019, 06:26:36 PM
My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
The latter.
We've seen this time and time again. The world at large has not yet awakened to the fact that they need a form of money that is not inflationary, and is free from intervening middlemen who can conspire to thwart or devalue their transactions.
You are so funny.
The world is going on the other direction. Boris, trump, marie le pen and all the others.
I don't see what your observation about so-called 'leaders' has to do with the price of tea in China. Want to explain yourself?
July 24, 2019, 06:19:35 PM
My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
If it is highly likely that 100K would be there by 2021, we should have mad buying of btc and its options right now.
That's my biggest beef with the S/F models.
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
Then you should address your question to the person who put this model together:
https://stephanlivera.com/episode/86/
Go to minute 29:00 onward, PlanB is going to answer to your question.
jbreher is right: People is simply not aware of the model and the halving effect on the stock to flow.
To be clear, I am not saying that the stock:flow model is definitive. I am saying that the eventual price is very high, due to the endemic properties of crypto as money. And that getting from a price of Zero to a price of FuckYou is bound to take significant time, and be very chaotic along the way.
The stock:flow model is simply an empirical model that seems to roughly explain the observed underlying reality. IMNSHO.
I expect anyone that trades with any expectation of fidelity to the S:F model will likely do well on average, but likely be wiped out at some point along the way where that fidelity breaks down completely.
We humans like things in neat little predictable buckets. But while markets are derived from human behavior, price predictions are not amenable to mere mathematical analysis.
July 24, 2019, 06:15:20 PM
It was a genuine question, as I'm unfamiliar with the term - what does "Wall Observer" mean?
I wondered that at first too. I'm pretty sure it's just a reference to the queue depth at bid/ask prices.
July 24, 2019, 06:09:56 PM
I only buy bitcoin to up my WO street cred.
July 24, 2019, 05:44:43 PM
I'm not sure I believe that setting up an account on an exchange (and acquiring bitcoin) will do anything to further the individual's understanding of the technology itself.
Let me ask another question, what is YOUR understanding of the technology?
Let me ask another question, what is YOUR understanding of the technology?
You won’t learn much until you buy some and use it. Log off this board and go buy some VPN services using Bitcoin and you will understand.
July 24, 2019, 05:35:42 PM
Hi J1GGY !! Can you please tell me, what is the meaning of "Wall Observer", as in the title of this glorious thread?
No.It was a genuine question, as I'm unfamiliar with the term - what does "Wall Observer" mean?
Usually it is good to 1) figure out your own situation and whether it allows you to reasonably invest in bitcoin 2) and if your situation allows you to invest in bitcoin, develop a plan, try to stick with the plan and tweak the plan from time to time. Some form of dollar cost averaging, even if your are doing low amounts, such as $20 a week can pay off in the long term and from time to time, you may be able to invest more than your allocated amount.
Although I've expressed interest in understanding the application of cryptography, as has been done with bitcoin, I find it strange that your primary response is to encourage out-of-pocket investment in the project/experiment.
I am compelled to follow up - why should anyone invest in bitcoin? Fiat return? Future potential for fiat return? Value retention? Acquisition of secure digital assets/property?
Maybe a better way to follow up would be to ask why YOU'VE invested in bitcoin? Is it one of the above reasons? All the above reasons? Something completely different?
Once you own a bit of bitcoin, then it becomes a bit easier to actively engage in the topic.
Maybe I am naive, but I do not see why this would be the case; can we not have valid and insightful discussion on the subject without being financially invested?
Some no coiners have their bitcoin ignorant traits because they are not actively engaging with the topic by at least setting up accounts or whatever in order to get some better ideas about what bitcoin actually is.
I'm not sure I believe that setting up an account on an exchange (and acquiring bitcoin) will do anything to further the individual's understanding of the technology itself.
Let me ask another question, what is YOUR understanding of the technology?
July 24, 2019, 05:32:12 PM
It is physically painful to be slowly drip feeding, dollar cost averaging, into a very large, multi-year leveraged long right now on super low leverage. It hurts to buy and every day see you have lost a little bit more.
The greatest long term trades are always incredibly painful to enter. This helps me to keep going. And the companionship of this board and your brilliant jokes ! And my dollar cost average keeps falling. So carry on.
The greatest long term trades are always incredibly painful to enter. This helps me to keep going. And the companionship of this board and your brilliant jokes ! And my dollar cost average keeps falling. So carry on.
July 24, 2019, 05:17:07 PM
Robinhood...lol
Translated into non-pr english:
Hi,
We dun fucked up. Your password wasn't even hashed. lol. Woopsies.
Sincerely,
The Robinhood Team
Quote
Hi,
When you set a password for your Robinhood account, we use an industry-standard process that prevents anyone at our company from reading it. On Monday night, we discovered that some user credentials were stored in a readable format within our internal systems. We wanted to let you know that your Robinhood password may have been included.
We resolved this issue, and after thorough review, found no evidence that this information was accessed by anyone outside of our response team. Out of an abundance of caution, we still recommend that you change your Robinhood password.
We take matters like this seriously. Earning and maintaining your trust is our top priority, and we’re committed to protecting your information. Let us know if you have any questions–we’re here to help.
Sincerely,
The Robinhood Team
When you set a password for your Robinhood account, we use an industry-standard process that prevents anyone at our company from reading it. On Monday night, we discovered that some user credentials were stored in a readable format within our internal systems. We wanted to let you know that your Robinhood password may have been included.
We resolved this issue, and after thorough review, found no evidence that this information was accessed by anyone outside of our response team. Out of an abundance of caution, we still recommend that you change your Robinhood password.
We take matters like this seriously. Earning and maintaining your trust is our top priority, and we’re committed to protecting your information. Let us know if you have any questions–we’re here to help.
Sincerely,
The Robinhood Team
Translated into non-pr english:
Hi,
We dun fucked up. Your password wasn't even hashed. lol. Woopsies.
Sincerely,
The Robinhood Team
July 24, 2019, 05:09:17 PM
^
Nominated troll posting
Nominated troll posting
July 24, 2019, 05:04:36 PM
BSV 14000 tps
Komodo 10000 tps
Xem 4000 tps
Eos 3000 tps
Xrp 1500 tps
July 24, 2019, 04:52:34 PM
Btw I thing my friend told me at 350-ish = he Said imagine this thing could rise crazy high with only a 10% chance of succeeding.... Then you must invest, and for him the % of success where much higher but nontheless imo you already should invest with thinking this.... might be b00ze talking now, and F*** mindrust go all-in bro, be more happy with your wealth in BTC as in crypto especially when there are no unexpected costs looking around the corner....
Goodnight!
HODL tight with me, be drunk with me on a F***ing Wednesday
lol
Looking forward to tomorrow have 2 big things on shedule, 1 requires a HAT change (only for a few hours, 15K Will be back same day ) !!!!!!
Goodnight!
HODL tight with me, be drunk with me on a F***ing Wednesday
lolLooking forward to tomorrow have 2 big things on shedule, 1 requires a HAT change (only for a few hours, 15K Will be back same day
) !!!!!! July 24, 2019, 04:45:46 PM
BtF***ingw
Whats the price, did’t check that sh*t for hours..... made me think, I can eat a Peach for hours, from which movie did that line come from..... its a bit older but amazing movie
Whats the price, did’t check that sh*t for hours..... made me think, I can eat a Peach for hours, from which movie did that line come from..... its a bit older but amazing movie
July 24, 2019, 04:42:44 PM
Thirty nine degrees
BBQ, salmon papillon, rosé wine!!!!
HODLers life I guess
Now into drunk and midweek HODLsleep...... b00ze and wine got me good!
One day I Will master this haiku stuf.
BBQ, salmon papillon, rosé wine!!!!
HODLers life I guess
Now into drunk and midweek HODLsleep...... b00ze and wine got me good!
One day I Will master this haiku stuf.
July 24, 2019, 04:29:45 PM
My question to those who predict 100K within less than two years or so.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
Why the discounting mechanism is not working?
Either the model is wrong/irrelevant OR the market is incapable of correctly pricing future expectations now.
The latter.
We've seen this time and time again. The world at large has not yet awakened to the fact that they need a form of money that is not inflationary, and is free from intervening middlemen who can conspire to thwart or devalue their transactions.
You are so funny.
The world is going on the other direction. Boris, trump, marie le pen and all the others.
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