Topic: [WE DID IT! IT is 20k!!!] We are still not in a bubble! 20k$ is INCOMING! - page 3. (Read 6183 times)

There is no real scarcity when it comes to Bitcoin. People shouldn't focus on the coin cap of 21 million -- don't forget that 1 BTC is the same as 100,000,000 satoshi's. If you switch to mBTC, or even Bits, you'll understand that there are enough coins/units left in the market to nurse the demand for many many more years. By the time Bitcoin reaches an insane amount as value, exchanges will switch mBTC by default, while it's just an optional change right now.

Looking at certain historical metrics, it seems we are not even close to hysteric bubble proportions. But 2017 is still young.... 

Yes scarcity will make bitcoin's price to reach it's high potential. And in that way, it's going to be hard to get bitcoin and each satoshi will be having good value to all of us. So I will keep on holding because I believe that the price of bitcoin will be reach this amount but not for now maybe for the next years.

I believe more number of investors is easily possible than the need of big investors  
When bitcoin is attaining big price levels, we can be sure that more people will be interested for adopting bitcoins for any reasons similarly we can expect countries to join the club of where Japan is already enjoying.

I just want to second the possibilities of $50k, yes definitely it is simply possible over the course of time as new high prices will be supporting bringing new investors.

More investors are required to make the price reach big. In reality we can expect more Countries participation into bitcoin. Already Japan has made its entry and now Australia is expected to come into the bitcoin acceptance. Also more experienced people of cryptocurrencies have predicted that the price will go high as $50000. Hope this comes to reality.

Remember, there will never be more than 21 millions of those.. kinda scarce stuff, compared to human count !

Since BTC stalls at 300 for a while, I'm sure that it will be over 12k before 2018.  Each time I tought someting like that, BTC got much higher than I tought, so 20k before 2018 is reallity in my mind.  I may sell some fraction around 20k to buy back on the correction to 10k.. then it may stall again for a year or two in the 8k to 12k range, rinse and repeat !

This altcoin economy is so new to the global economy that it is difficult to predict how far the price can go, but taking into account that this is just beginning and the market is still small compared to other markets, there is still a lot of room for expansion so a scenario of $20,000 does not seem so impossible in the medium term.

It is true that there is a lot of irrationality in pushing the price so high in such a short period of time, but it is well known that in every market there is always a high dose of emotionality, and this altcoin market will never be the exception because there are real human beings behind every buy or sell decision.

Who said it's a bubble? The normal popularity of bitcoin is increasing and I agree with this
To make it possible the price of bitcoin reach $20k soon we need more investors that will generate profit to the old investors and the cycle goes one.

What are you talking about? How is your comment here at all related to what you quoted? I completely understand bitcoin's potential and I've been following it for many years now, since well before the last bubble. I don't see how you can say that everything you say leads to a dead end on my side when I have rebutted every point you've made. You aren't making any sense here.

I'm going to answer your question by changing it to a better question, because the one you asked is on the right track but you phrased it poorly. You should really be asking what I think the market cap for bitcoin should be, which is still a difficult question to answer, but I will give it a shot. For the record though, I do not need to be able to pinpoint a value for an asset in order to tell you that it is over or under valued. That is not how finance works. You seem to have a pretty simplistic view of all of this.

Anyway, Bitcoin's market cap is currently roughly $40 billion. When Bitcoin's price skyrocketed in 2013, its market cap went from roughly $1 billion to $12 billion, and finally settled around $3.5 billion, where it stayed the most stable Bitcoin has remained over a 9 month period in a while. It pretty much stayed flat, as a currency should. I would argue that this is where the intrinsic value of bitcoin was at that time - around $250 or so per coin. This means that the events which pushed bitcoin up by 12x in 2013 really reflected only a 3.5x increase in bitcoin's value. The implication is that the bitcoin market likes to push the price up by about 3.43x (12 / 3.5) the amount that the value goes up by.

This now begs the question, where is the top of the current bubble? This is hard to say, so let's work with a range - let's say it is somewhere between $4,000 and $8,000. This means that the market cap would be between roughly $67 billion and $134 billion at the peak, and would imply an increase of somewhere between 5.6 and 11.2 times, assuming we mark the start of the bubble where the peak of the 2013 bubble was ($12 billion market cap). To find where bitcoin should be, we just divide these numbers by 3.43 (the amount by which investors tend to overbuy bitcoin) and multiply them by the market cap. The result is a range of $19.6 billion to $39.2 billion, which means the price of bitcoin should currently be between roughly $1,190 and $2,380.

So yeah that's a really big range, but it's hard to be precise. It is highly likely that bitcoin will fall on the lower end of that range when it finally settles. The higher end would only be likely if we see the price shoot up to around $8,000 in the next couple months.

BOTTOM LINE:

Anyway just to simplify all of this for you, in case you didn't bother to read it or you just dismissed it because you didn't understand it, we calculated that investors overestimated the increase in value of bitcoin by about 3.43 during the 2013 bubble. The degree to which investors overestimate the increase in value is not likely to be different this time. As a result, it is highly unlikely that the real value of bitcoin is greater than $2400, and more likely that it is closer to $1200-$1500 ish.

Well, you are clearly having hard time to understand what bitcoin is about, what it has enabled, how useful it is, what potential it has and so on. I can't have a debate with someone like you about bitcoin anyway because anything i say will lead to a dead end on your side.

Just one question. How would you price bitcoin right now, if you were able to name a price freely?

100$?

1000$?

10k$?

100k$?

500k$?

1million$?

Just pick one. If you can't pick a price from the list above, then you should just stay quiet.

That's the point I'm making. If the price soars and the value doesn't, you create this big disparity that cannot sustain itself forever. Like I mentioned earlier, it's like stretching a rubber band. Everything must come down to reality eventually, or grow into its price. With bitcoin, it's likely to be a combination of both but weighted more heavily on the coming down to reality side.

you can have the exact same amount of intrinsic value, though there isn't much or any, and still have the price soar down to one thing and one thing only - more people want in. that's it. and there are many, many, many more people who will want in in the future.

You say this as if a movement from $200 to $1500-$2200 in 2 years is normal. This is ridiculously fast growth for any asset over a very short period of time. And what do you mean by saying it was an "expected ride"?


We can argue about the definition of mania all day but the point is that there was a snowball effect that pushed the price up to $2800. I agree that this was not the peak and we will see higher prices soon, but nowhere near $20k.




The problem with your chart is the same problem with most technical analysis charts I see here... your line doesn't mean anything. You drew a line on the picture to fit your narrative. The line doesn't have any significance. It's not even straight or describable by a simple function... it's a kind of complicated and arbitrary line, looks more like a graph of natural log than anything.

The fact that the price passed your pink line doesn't mean anything. There is no special barrier at that point just because you drew a line there. You can stretch and skew a line and graph however you want to make it look like the price will do anything.

But furthermore, you still fail to acknowledge my point that the price of bitcoin has risen FAR faster than its intrinsic value. Bitcoin hasn't intrinsically become 1200% more valuable in the past 2 years. Sure there are a few more places that it can be spent, but that doesn't mean it is worth 1200% more. This is the only point that matters, not your graph. The value of bitcoin is far below the current price, regardless of what technical indicators may or may not suggest that the price will do.

That is not something to push price of bitcoin. I expect that paying wages in bitcoin would have minimal impact on price of BTC.
I am sure that some, if not most of employees would refuse bitcoin anyway. We recently had big company accept bitcoin:
Fidelity Investments, integrated with Coinbase, started to mine mines Bitcoin and accepted Bitcoin at its cafeteria.

A speculator does not need to be right all the times. Bitcoin may jump into any prices levels just due to some big investments. So, one single person also could make big differences in bitcoin prices. Imagine what will happen if some corporate start paying their employees in bitcoins. So, I too believe bitcoin may reach $20k levels too but the time frame will be a mystery.

Your post is so typical. You should find some posts from 2013 and previous years and you'll see people were writing the same exact thing, but with different numbers.
If instead of $20000 and 10000 you put 2000 and 1000, that would place your post somewhere in the early 2013.

Of course, events will impact prices, nothing new, but $10000 is very probable with the current state of affairs. 

More exchanges in more countries. Yeah, not yet the bubble.

None who sat through 2013 can call what we've seen so far this year a bubble. The growth until now has been BTC finding it's natural price level.

WE ARE ON THE VERGE OF MAINSTREAM ADOPTION! I would not be at all surprised if we hit 20 K this year.

The mining difficulty would have to rise through the roof for the price to hit $20,000. Miners would be doubling their hash power if the price were to rise so fast. In my opinion we will languish below 5k for the next year or two.