| Asset | IPO Price | Total Dividends | Last Traded | Profit |
| GIGAMINING | 1 | 0.443176 | 0.6 | +0.043176 (+04%) |
For what it's worth, GIGAMINING's original IPO price was 1 BTC each.
Thanks,
gigavps
EDIT: FTFY
Topic: Weekly loss of N% guaranteed - Enjoy perpetual loss with fixed Mh/s mining turds - page 2. (Read 14714 times)
September 17, 2012, 08:00:38 AM
For what it's worth, GIGAMINING's original IPO price was 1 BTC each.
Thanks,
gigavps
EDIT: FTFY
September 17, 2012, 06:17:27 AM
| Asset | IPO Price | Total Dividends | Last Traded | Profit |
| GIGAMINING | 1.3 | 0.443176 | 0.6 | -0.256824 (-20%) |
| BITBOND | 0.6 | 0.188358 | 0.32 | -0.091642 (-15%) |
| YABMC | 0.3 | 0.085533 | 0.0999 | -0.114567 (-38%) |
| PUREMINING | 0.45 | 0.101208 | 0.0953 | -0.253492 (-56%) |
Nice list.
Now people who support these are going to say "But for the people who bought in AFTER the IPO, after the price crashed, these were a great deal since they got them cheaper." But the price will continue to go down in the future, so what looks like a great price now is going to look overpriced when you look back at it in a couple months.
September 16, 2012, 10:03:46 PM
| Asset | IPO Price | Total Dividends | Last Traded | Profit |
| GIGAMINING | 1.3 | 0.443176 | 0.6 | -0.256824 (-20%) |
| BITBOND | 0.6 | 0.188358 | 0.32 | -0.091642 (-15%) |
| YABMC | 0.3 | 0.085533 | 0.0999 | -0.114567 (-38%) |
| PUREMINING | 0.45 | 0.101208 | 0.0953 | -0.253492 (-56%) |
Point proven.
September 16, 2012, 09:48:17 PM
| Asset | IPO Price | Total Dividends | Last Traded | Profit |
| GIGAMINING | 1.3 | 0.443176 | 0.6 | -0.256824 (-20%) |
| BITBOND | 0.6 | 0.188358 | 0.32 | -0.091642 (-15%) |
| YABMC | 0.3 | 0.085533 | 0.0999 | -0.114567 (-38%) |
| PUREMINING | 0.45 | 0.101208 | 0.0953 | -0.253492 (-56%) |
September 09, 2012, 01:55:27 PM
I'll bump this because people are still getting sucked in to fixed Mh/s perpetual bond scams.
You mean you'll bump this because you are now trolling. I think a good in-depth thoughtful analysis would make a good sticky, but this thread is far from that.
You can thank your fellow forum users for that
September 09, 2012, 01:27:43 PM
I'll bump this because people are still getting sucked in to fixed Mh/s perpetual bond scams.
You mean you'll bump this because you are now trolling. I think a good in-depth thoughtful analysis would make a good sticky, but this thread is far from that.
September 09, 2012, 10:05:07 AM
I'll bump this because people are still getting sucked in to fixed Mh/s perpetual bond scams.
You have a funny definition of "scam". Then anyone betting with Matthew N. Wright has been scamming him, since he has allowed him to make a stupid choice with his money...
September 08, 2012, 06:00:46 AM
I'll bump this because people are still getting sucked in to fixed Mh/s perpetual bond scams.
September 01, 2012, 05:37:54 AM
Net present value analyis relies on using a discount rate to model the present value of a flow of money.
I was dicking around in excel to get some NPVs for an xMH/s perpetual (zero face value) mining bond. I am modeling these simply as a flow of ever-decreasing dividends. The difficulty increase rate (dividend decrease rate) is also an input. The mining rewards are modeled to halve after 18 weeks from today, and the NPV is then calculated at 1%, 2%, and 4% weekly discount rates over 2 years of projected dividends.
Might be fun to play around with!
http://www.filedropper.com/miningnpv
I was dicking around in excel to get some NPVs for an xMH/s perpetual (zero face value) mining bond. I am modeling these simply as a flow of ever-decreasing dividends. The difficulty increase rate (dividend decrease rate) is also an input. The mining rewards are modeled to halve after 18 weeks from today, and the NPV is then calculated at 1%, 2%, and 4% weekly discount rates over 2 years of projected dividends.
Might be fun to play around with!
http://www.filedropper.com/miningnpv
Good idea. Thank you.
http://striketeam.ath.cx/btccalc/btccalc.php is a nice Mh/s calculator that shows you what happens to Mh/s production, when difficulty rises.
In February 2012, difficulty was 1379647. I did calculations with 5% rise per month. I was sure, it never happen that fast. I was wrong
We are at 2440642.60
August 31, 2012, 04:29:12 PM
Net present value analyis relies on using a discount rate to model the present value of a flow of money.
I was dicking around in excel to get some NPVs for an xMH/s perpetual (zero face value) mining bond. I am modeling these simply as a flow of ever-decreasing dividends. The difficulty increase rate (dividend decrease rate) is also an input. The mining rewards are modeled to halve after 18 weeks from today, and the NPV is then calculated at 1%, 2%, and 4% weekly discount rates over 2 years of projected dividends.
Might be fun to play around with!
http://www.filedropper.com/miningnpv
I was dicking around in excel to get some NPVs for an xMH/s perpetual (zero face value) mining bond. I am modeling these simply as a flow of ever-decreasing dividends. The difficulty increase rate (dividend decrease rate) is also an input. The mining rewards are modeled to halve after 18 weeks from today, and the NPV is then calculated at 1%, 2%, and 4% weekly discount rates over 2 years of projected dividends.
Might be fun to play around with!
http://www.filedropper.com/miningnpv
August 31, 2012, 03:35:32 PM
I must agree that buying a Mhash/s turd is a bad investment. But heck, let anyone invest in what they want...
August 31, 2012, 03:25:17 PM
This thread is great work. Please post a donation address.
Interesting idea and thank you for all who have participated.
1C1gJABrGYdSGZ7wBcVWWcM8yraLuPc8m5
August 31, 2012, 03:19:02 PM
I intended to start something like that here:
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/rfc-virtual-mining-bond-and-toxic-mining-betting-against-mining-bonds-88496
Imagine my profits if I had done it back then, but Brendio promised an easier solution, that Ive yet to see materialize.
And now, I dont think the new GLSBE rules would allow it.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/rfc-virtual-mining-bond-and-toxic-mining-betting-against-mining-bonds-88496
Imagine my profits if I had done it back then, but Brendio promised an easier solution, that Ive yet to see materialize.
And now, I dont think the new GLSBE rules would allow it.
August 31, 2012, 03:08:05 PM
Let me put my money where my mouth is. Anyone owning these bonds, lend them to me so I can short them. I will pay you all dividends +10% bonus. Minimum duration 3 months, after that Im free to return them whenever I want, or you want. PM me when interested.
Wow...I'd like some of that action. Can you set up a GLBSE security so that we can all profit?
August 31, 2012, 03:03:36 PM
Let me put my money where my mouth is. Anyone owning these bonds, lend them to me so I can short them. I will pay you all dividends +10% bonus. Minimum duration 3 months, after that Im free to return them whenever I want, or you want. PM me when interested.
August 31, 2012, 02:16:18 PM
This thread is great work. Please post a donation address.
August 26, 2012, 12:33:59 AM
Here is my position.
I think all of this is pretty straightforward and indisputable. If you want to make other assumptions or if you don't mind if the value of your investment is less than the value of the BTC used to buy the investment (as long as the value has gone up in dollar terms), then that is your choice.
Unfortunately, a statement like this means that no further rational discussion is possible.
- It is claimed that many (if not most) fixed Mh/s bonds have dropped in value more than the dividends that have been paid. EskimoBob says that these are the worst investments ever, but that is an exaggeration. Really, it means that they are bad investments because you would have made more money (in dollars or BTC) by just holding the BTC instead of buying the bonds.
This is an important point because even if the value of BTC goes through the roof, if the total value of the bond (price + dividends) drops then it would be better to just hold the BTC instead of buying the bond. In this case, it doesn't matter if the value is in BTC or dollars. - It is claimed that the BTC value of bonds fixed to a constant Mh/s will decline as the difficulty rises. This is only correct if you accept certain assumptions because the value of a Mh/s bond is dependent on supply and demand, and not difficulty. So, for EskimoBob's point to be correct, you must accept the assumption that an increase in difficulty goes along with a decrease in demand or an increase in supply.
For example, when the ASICs come out, the dividend for 1 Mh/s bond will drop significantly. But if there is not an increase in fixed Mh/s bonds (supply is constant) and there are no alternatives (demand is constant), then the value of the bonds will remain the same because there is nothing else to invest in. It is simple supply and demand.
However, we know that this is not the case because many of the miners are upgrading the bonds when the ASICs come out. The amount of fixed-Mh/s bonds is going to go up by a factor of 10-20. That means that the value 1 Mh/s bond will probably drop to about 5%-10% of its current value. Here we see that the value of a fixed Mh/s bond drops not because the difficulty rises, but because the supply of the bonds increases.
Even if we ignore the coming ASICs for now, it is pretty safe to assume that a rising difficulty is due to more miners and these miners are selling more bonds. In this case the value of the bonds fall not because of the rising difficulty, but again because of the increase in the supply of bonds. - Finally, the value of equipment. If a company's shares are denominated in BTC, then the value of its equipment should also be denominated in BTC (or in dollars with a separate line for currency adjustments). This makes sense because investors need to be able to directly compare the value of a company to the value of its shares. Now, if the value of the equipment is constant in dollar terms, then it will vary in BTC terms. There is no way to avoid this. If the value of BTC goes up, the value of the equipment must go down because if you sell the equipment, you get less BTC for it. This is important for doing the accounting correctly. So, if the value of the company is determined by the value of the equipment and the value of BTC goes up, then the value of the company (in BTC) will go down. If the value goes down more than the dividends, the company is a "bad" investment (regardless of its dollar value) because you would have done better by holding the BTC instead of buying shares in the company.
I think all of this is pretty straightforward and indisputable. If you want to make other assumptions or if you don't mind if the value of your investment is less than the value of the BTC used to buy the investment (as long as the value has gone up in dollar terms), then that is your choice.
No one gives a fuck about the "dollar value" since its all denominated in BTC and youre not listed on a USD stock exchange.
Unfortunately, a statement like this means that no further rational discussion is possible.
August 25, 2012, 09:50:27 PM
No one gives a fuck about the "dollar value" since its all denominated in BTC and youre not listed on a USD stock exchange.
Go read the earlier posts, its pretty well explained. Even if we traded them in dollars they would not be worth the same amount of dollars when the value of the dollar changed. You only benefit and lose from those changes if you invested in dollars. Bonds are invested in equipment, not a currency. So logically its not going to follow those changes in value. Go take a valium or somthing.
August 25, 2012, 09:22:53 PM
cuz0882, you keep calling me troll. I like to know, what exactly is your problem? If you do not mind, pleas send me a PM and stop whining here.
Lest look at the HYDRO coupon payments
Total: 0.34271179
Your "bond" holders are in green, if they this simple calculation returns a positive number: 'sale price'-'price bought'+'coupon payment received'
If they bought those at IPO, they are fine unless the price drops below 1.73-0.34271179=1.38728821.
This is what I see at the moment in GLBSE (bid):
Is there something unclear about the announcement that would lead to uncertainty or are these currently undervalued compared to GIGAMINING or BITBONDS?
GIGAMINING - 1.13 - .226
BITBONDS - 0.45 - .214
HYDRO.BONDS - 1.335 - .1335
This had a positive effect to https://glbse.com/asset/view/HYDRO.BONDS price and whopping 347 BTC worth of trades (close to 3 weeks) helped the "bond" out of its all time low of 1.24.
As of today, only 18 BTC worth of trades can send the bond back to "not so funny" price range.
DO not fool yourself, your bond will lose value as difficulty rises because the damn Mh/s can produce less and less bitcoins. I am not saying, that mining is not profitable to you, I am saying, perpetual miningturds are a guaranteed to be losers from day one. If the difficulty trend changes, things will get better but as of now, I see no reason for this to happen.
If you like to call someone a troll, go take a peek at the mirror.
Lest look at the HYDRO coupon payments
Code:
date payment change form previous
2012-06-24 18:21 0.04250000
2012-07-01 08:42 0.04142857 -2.52%
2012-07-08 08:24 0.04034090 -2.63%
2012-07-15 07:56 0.04019607 -0.36%
2012-07-22 19:21 0.03833992 -4.62%
2012-07-29 04:49 0.03771493 -1.63%
2012-08-05 16:00 0.03547034 -5.95%
2012-08-12 08:27 0.03457760 -2.52%
2012-08-20 04:01 0.03214346 -7.04%
Total: 0.34271179
Your "bond" holders are in green, if they this simple calculation returns a positive number: 'sale price'-'price bought'+'coupon payment received'
If they bought those at IPO, they are fine unless the price drops below 1.73-0.34271179=1.38728821.
This is what I see at the moment in GLBSE (bid):
I have made a update regarding the ASIC announcement. I set the bond price at 1.73 btc.
Is there something unclear about the announcement that would lead to uncertainty or are these currently undervalued compared to GIGAMINING or BITBONDS?
GIGAMINING - 1.13 - .226
BITBONDS - 0.45 - .214
HYDRO.BONDS - 1.335 - .1335
This had a positive effect to https://glbse.com/asset/view/HYDRO.BONDS price and whopping 347 BTC worth of trades (close to 3 weeks) helped the "bond" out of its all time low of 1.24.
As of today, only 18 BTC worth of trades can send the bond back to "not so funny" price range.
DO not fool yourself, your bond will lose value as difficulty rises because the damn Mh/s can produce less and less bitcoins. I am not saying, that mining is not profitable to you, I am saying, perpetual miningturds are a guaranteed to be losers from day one. If the difficulty trend changes, things will get better but as of now, I see no reason for this to happen.
If you like to call someone a troll, go take a peek at the mirror.
I'm not going to explain it all again. The bonds dollar value is what matters. You are clearly to ignorant to even read the posts on here. If you did, you would have know I posted that 3 weeks. Your head in the sand views are no revelation to me. Why you think difficulty and btc price of the bond are the go to calculations or 18 btc is going to hurt anything is beyond me. I don't even want to know how you draw these narrow minded conclusions.
No one gives a fuck about the "dollar value" since its all denominated in BTC and youre not listed on a USD stock exchange.
August 25, 2012, 09:08:21 PM
cuz0882, you keep calling me troll. I like to know, what exactly is your problem? If you do not mind, pleas send me a PM and stop whining here.
Lest look at the HYDRO coupon payments
Total: 0.34271179
Your "bond" holders are in green, if they this simple calculation returns a positive number: 'sale price'-'price bought'+'coupon payment received'
If they bought those at IPO, they are fine unless the price drops below 1.73-0.34271179=1.38728821.
This is what I see at the moment in GLBSE (bid):
Is there something unclear about the announcement that would lead to uncertainty or are these currently undervalued compared to GIGAMINING or BITBONDS?
GIGAMINING - 1.13 - .226
BITBONDS - 0.45 - .214
HYDRO.BONDS - 1.335 - .1335
This had a positive effect to https://glbse.com/asset/view/HYDRO.BONDS price and whopping 347 BTC worth of trades (close to 3 weeks) helped the "bond" out of its all time low of 1.24.
As of today, only 18 BTC worth of trades can send the bond back to "not so funny" price range.
DO not fool yourself, your bond will lose value as difficulty rises because the damn Mh/s can produce less and less bitcoins. I am not saying, that mining is not profitable to you, I am saying, perpetual miningturds are a guaranteed to be losers from day one. If the difficulty trend changes, things will get better but as of now, I see no reason for this to happen.
If you like to call someone a troll, go take a peek at the mirror.
Lest look at the HYDRO coupon payments
Code:
date payment change form previous
2012-06-24 18:21 0.04250000
2012-07-01 08:42 0.04142857 -2.52%
2012-07-08 08:24 0.04034090 -2.63%
2012-07-15 07:56 0.04019607 -0.36%
2012-07-22 19:21 0.03833992 -4.62%
2012-07-29 04:49 0.03771493 -1.63%
2012-08-05 16:00 0.03547034 -5.95%
2012-08-12 08:27 0.03457760 -2.52%
2012-08-20 04:01 0.03214346 -7.04%
Total: 0.34271179
Your "bond" holders are in green, if they this simple calculation returns a positive number: 'sale price'-'price bought'+'coupon payment received'
If they bought those at IPO, they are fine unless the price drops below 1.73-0.34271179=1.38728821.
This is what I see at the moment in GLBSE (bid):
I have made a update regarding the ASIC announcement. I set the bond price at 1.73 btc.
Is there something unclear about the announcement that would lead to uncertainty or are these currently undervalued compared to GIGAMINING or BITBONDS?
GIGAMINING - 1.13 - .226
BITBONDS - 0.45 - .214
HYDRO.BONDS - 1.335 - .1335
This had a positive effect to https://glbse.com/asset/view/HYDRO.BONDS price and whopping 347 BTC worth of trades (close to 3 weeks) helped the "bond" out of its all time low of 1.24.
As of today, only 18 BTC worth of trades can send the bond back to "not so funny" price range.
DO not fool yourself, your bond will lose value as difficulty rises because the damn Mh/s can produce less and less bitcoins. I am not saying, that mining is not profitable to you, I am saying, perpetual miningturds are a guaranteed to be losers from day one. If the difficulty trend changes, things will get better but as of now, I see no reason for this to happen.
If you like to call someone a troll, go take a peek at the mirror.
I'm not going to explain it all again. The bonds dollar value is what matters. You are clearly to ignorant to even read the posts on here. If you did, you would have know I posted that 3 weeks. Your head in the sand views are no revelation to me. Why you think difficulty and btc price of the bond are the go to calculations or 18 btc is going to hurt anything is beyond me. I don't even want to know how you draw these narrow minded conclusions.
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