The best argument I've seen against Bitcoin is that it'll be another cryptocurrency that we use mainstream in the future. Just because Bitcoin is first, doesn't mean it's the best.
What about the infrastructure, the mining power, the network effect and that Bitcoin could be adapted?
I and others refuted that in the
Problem with Altcoins thread. Not the OP, see our comments downthread.
There are serious problems with Bitcoin in terms of mining, transactions fees, anonymity, and cartel takeover. I've covered these in detail in my November posts. I am not going to resummarize here. Suffice it to say I am nearly certain a new altcoin will seriously challenge Bitcoin in 2014.
The other big problem with Bitcoin is that it isn't legal tender, and thus it is taxed on changes in its value unlike legal tender. Thus
Bitcoin can NEVER be a non-anonymous currency.
So Bitcoin has very powerful arguments against it. The OP is naive.
And it is precisely my naiveté that prompted me to make this thread.
After reading the latter parts of the
Problem with Altcoins thread, I am inclined to agree that there are serious issues with Bitcoin in the long term.
One being the problem of mining cartels forming in a post mining-boom (when returns on mining are minuscule) where the plutocrats dump the transaction fees to zero to capture the entire mining-market and only those with the deepest pockets could afford to spend money getting no return on mining. Maybe even governments could play such a role, with the excuse of "guaranteeing the infrastructure of the Bitcoin network". This group of people could then hold the currency hostage, and there would be no monetary incentive for selfish miners to compete with them. A selfish miner would either accept the status quo or get out of Bitcoin.
The other being anonymity. How the anonymity offered through Bitcoin is weak, becuse using Tor to hide one's IP address is not good enough when fighting a global enemy using a timing attack as explained
here. A global enemy (like the NSA) could also has a myriad of other exploits to find out your identity. At first glance, this might be seen as a huge problem. But think of what happens if the global financial system collapses and the masses move into Bitcoin, then there they will a large amount of blame given to Bitcoin and its early adapters. In the words of
J.R. Willet in the Lifeboat foundation:
We’ll be very lucky if we aren’t all rounded up and summarily executed. Thankfully, you’ll be able to use some of that money to purchase protection, but I’m not at all convinced that it will be enough. A wrathful government backed by an enraged population is a fearful enemy. Satoshi foresaw this long ago, and I doubt he/she/it/they will ever voluntarily come into the light.
Hence hard uncrackable anonymity is needed.
I assume that the elite, fearing their power being encroached by Bitcoin would both try to dominate mining and also drum up popular anger at Bitcoin instead of assuming their own responsibility in having created the current and doomed fiat system.
None of these two issues with Bitcoin are absolute flaws. One way to solve them is to think of these issues ahead of time and like the Lifeboat foundation wants to, advice regulators, wealthy Bitcoiners and other power brokers on how to proceed in a way that causes the least harm. And with the help of generous directed donations from those who made their wealth by Bitcoin as well as careful explanation and good marketing, it would be possible to at least somewhat abate public anger.
On the mining cartel problem one could set up some kind of foundation or institution to ensure that mining power is spread out and independent.
Both these "solutions" are big ifs (there might be other better solutions if these issues are addressed seriously by the Bitcoin community now rather than later - creds to the Lifeboat foundation).
There are some advantages to having Bitcoin public, but it does require fighting a PR-war to win over the masses of disenfranchised. That could easily mean Bitcoiners would resort to logical fallacies in order to convince people, just the kind of behavior that can be seen all around these forums now (imagine what that would be like when wealthy people are trying to justify why they are rich when the world economy is grinding to a halt.
About setting up organizations that would provide safety and stability to Bitcoin-mining and make sure no one co-opts mining when returns drop to the point where transaction fees are the main income - this is clearly possible. It might even work quite well, but organizations can also be co-opted or just become myopic over time. This is also not a foolproof solution and more similar to the current system than the apparent flawlessness that attracted me to Bitcoin in the first place.