What is harder to predict, randomness or regularity?

temple

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on October 24, 2024, 07:57:36 PM

Quote from: Smartprofit on October 24, 2024, 07:52:51 AM

Everything you write about is very complicated and most likely will not be useful to the average player.

The average player specializing in sports betting simply will not be able to perform mathematical calculations of such complexity. How in practice can one unravel the pattern underlying randomness?

Personally, I cannot do it. Moreover, I cannot even predict the possibility of such a pattern appearing.

All this is similar to the search for Black Swans (random events according to the method of Nassim Taleb). Yes, one can expect such events to appear. Yes, one can try to make money on this. But how can one identify the pattern of their appearance?

This is simple, but perhaps slightly more profound statistics. Let's say there is a team A that loses all home matches on even dates of odd months in the first ten days of the month with a 75% probability. This is clearly a pattern revealed statistically. But we do not understand the reason for this phenomenon. And if we did, we would most likely be able to improve the statistics of predictions. Let's say we have found out that there is a certain event B that often occurs on the specified dates and can affect the team's play. And if we carefully analyze these facts, we will find many more interesting things there. Or suppose there are two teams. One of them, playing away, loses to the other team in 75% of cases if the match takes place at one time of year and wins against the same team in 60% of cases, playing away at another time of year. Perhaps we do not always understand it, but it is still a pattern.

No, this is clearly not a pattern revealed statistically unless you are observing this for a decade. But we can stop right here as you won't find such a pattern. You can now continue hypothetically, but I wonder how that contributes to answering the question.

A more statistically significant observation would be if over a period of several seasons a team loses 60% of their games when it is raining at a certain level. Or that a formula 1 driver, which is even more statistically significant, never gets onto the podium when it is raining. Those observations are not too far-fetched. I still don't believe you will find such a pattern, but at least it makes somewhat sense. Your example sounds more like esotericism.

If anything of what has been written in the thread were to be true, then just get some AI going and calculate the result of the games. It doesn't work. Gambling will exist forever because it is random, providing the house with an edge! If there was any chance to exploit information against the house, gambling would be dead. If AI can't do it, why would any human being be able to come up with some probabilities that are said to hold true for future events? That's nonsense.

Julien_Olynpic

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Quote from: Smartprofit on October 24, 2024, 07:52:51 AM

Everything you write about is very complicated and most likely will not be useful to the average player.

The average player specializing in sports betting simply will not be able to perform mathematical calculations of such complexity. How in practice can one unravel the pattern underlying randomness?

Personally, I cannot do it. Moreover, I cannot even predict the possibility of such a pattern appearing.

All this is similar to the search for Black Swans (random events according to the method of Nassim Taleb). Yes, one can expect such events to appear. Yes, one can try to make money on this. But how can one identify the pattern of their appearance?

This is simple, but perhaps slightly more profound statistics. Let's say there is a team A that loses all home matches on even dates of odd months in the first ten days of the month with a 75% probability. This is clearly a pattern revealed statistically. But we do not understand the reason for this phenomenon. And if we did, we would most likely be able to improve the statistics of predictions. Let's say we have found out that there is a certain event B that often occurs on the specified dates and can affect the team's play. And if we carefully analyze these facts, we will find many more interesting things there. Or suppose there are two teams. One of them, playing away, loses to the other team in 75% of cases if the match takes place at one time of year and wins against the same team in 60% of cases, playing away at another time of year. Perhaps we do not always understand it, but it is still a pattern.

Smartprofit

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on October 23, 2024, 08:55:39 PM

Randomness and regularity may well be a fractal thing. By the way, in the original quote at the beginning of the topic, the mathematician wrote that it is more difficult for him to predict the regularity that underlies the unsolved randomness. And vice versa, randomness that cannot be predicted by definition can be described statistically. After all, a large number of random events that are considered not in isolation, but as a group, allow us to make some productive conclusions about their nature. In other words, a single random event, especially with its own version of deviation from the average, is unpredictable, but generalized random events are more revealing.

Everything you write about is very complicated and most likely will not be useful to the average player.

The average player specializing in sports betting simply will not be able to perform mathematical calculations of such complexity. How in practice can one unravel the pattern underlying randomness?

Personally, I cannot do it. Moreover, I cannot even predict the possibility of such a pattern appearing.

All this is similar to the search for Black Swans (random events according to the method of Nassim Taleb). Yes, one can expect such events to appear. Yes, one can try to make money on this. But how can one identify the pattern of their appearance?

Julien_Olynpic

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Randomness and regularity may well be a fractal thing. By the way, in the original quote at the beginning of the topic, the mathematician wrote that it is more difficult for him to predict the regularity that underlies the unsolved randomness. And vice versa, randomness that cannot be predicted by definition can be described statistically. After all, a large number of random events that are considered not in isolation, but as a group, allow us to make some productive conclusions about their nature. In other words, a single random event, especially with its own version of deviation from the average, is unpredictable, but generalized random events are more revealing.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on October 14, 2024, 09:17:19 PM

So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?

The very first reason why I casinos made it possible for gamblers to bet on sports event and potentially make money off it is because the outcome is always random, this is if the outcome of the match or game is not pre-concluded before the game day, which we often will refer to as scripted match or a rigged game.
Without this in place, I would say that the random event, which I believe to mean, unknown outcome, is the hardest to understand, because this is where anxiousness lives, you can literally be shaking with anxiety, in your chair when a football match is about to come to the end, and your favorite team is not producing the expected outcome.

Think of it this way, the football match is coming to an end, and your team is losing, but fortunately, they got awarded with a penalty against their opponent, of which the outcome of this penalty will either make or mere them, imagine how fast your heart will be beating at that moment, because you know not, whether the player will score the penalty or miss it.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on October 14, 2024, 09:17:19 PM

What do you think is harder to predict, randomness or regularity? When I write about randomness, I mean data that statistics take into account, but which cannot always be explained. If you analyze sports matches between two teams and look at the statistics of goals scored in different games, you will find that Team A scores an average of 3 goals per match against Team B. And Team B scores an average of 4 goals per match against Team A. However, it is difficult to rely on average figures. After all, in each specific game, the number of goals scored is more or less random.
One famous mathematician, who wrote a book about football from a mathematical point of view, put it this way:

Quote

Even when goals are scored chaotically, mathematics can find a way to make predictions. But Gascoigne is right. The essence of real events in football is not randomness, but overcoming it. Football is a game about failures and strong-willed victories. When Alex Ferguson resigned in 2013 and David Moyes led Manchester United to their worst season in 20 years, it wasn’t just bad luck. When Germany thrashed Brazil in the World Cup semi-final, scoring five goals in 18 minutes, it wasn’t just luck. Brazil crumbled under pressure, and Germany took advantage. Ferguson’s success, or that of Germany, can’t be understood in terms of randomness: we have to understand its inner workings. The irony is that non-random events are much harder to understand and predict – which is why they are so much more interesting.

So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?

Obviously you can predict the outcome better by betting statistical data, i don't think anyone ever claimed that by referring to concept of "luck", but we are talking about monetary outcome when we do that. And when you bet on a team that has with higher probability to win, betting odds are just lower, so in fact risk / reward ratio stays more or less the same by betting totally randomly.

So it's not really a question of prediction, but question of profitability. Also, i wouldn't want to debate a famous mathematician on this one, but his concept of bad or good "luck" seem to differ from my concept for the term "luck", or you are using it in different context.

hedgeh0g

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Quote from: TheUltraElite on October 21, 2024, 12:25:07 AM

Regularity or non-random events are indeed more difficult to predict. No two games are going to be similar and if they are, then it will make it into the news. Such team makes x number of goals in consecutive matches or x number of goals in the quarter finals every season.

Random events are more common but the market for prediction is limited and making the prediction of higher than x number of goals to be scored, is fairly a no brainer to most people, whether that is the correct or wrong outcome is a different question.

Human minds try to find patterns everywhere even when it does not exist. Cool

I recently thought about it myself, that I always try to find patterns in different things, and the most important thing is that I understood it. Even if all the events happened independently of each other. Perhaps it is my love for mathematics or something else that could be the reason for this. But now I am not attached to this and understand that many events could just be an accident and should not be taken seriously.

It was always difficult to make predictions and I noticed that if a person guessed the outcome of an event by chance, he may think that he figured out a pattern, but this will not be the case. In general, all I understood is that you can not be blinded and believe in different patterns, because they could just be coincidences.

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Quote from: TheUltraElite on October 21, 2024, 12:25:07 AM

Regularity or non-random events are indeed more difficult to predict. No two games are going to be similar and if they are, then it will make it into the news. Such team makes x number of goals in consecutive matches or x number of goals in the quarter finals every season.

Random events are more common but the market for prediction is limited and making the prediction of higher than x number of goals to be scored, is fairly a no brainer to most people, whether that is the correct or wrong outcome is a different question.

Human minds try to find patterns everywhere even when it does not exist. Cool

This is why we will hear a lot of beliefs because people are creating patterns, even if there's nothing. Let us put it this way, we can only predict the number of goals for each match, but we can't guarantee that our prediction will happen 100%. That is why, it is called prediction. It is the randomness of things and no one is holding the crystal ball to know the next outcome.

Quote from: Peanutswar on October 20, 2024, 07:53:35 AM

It seems just a random event we know Sportsbet takes a lot of viewers and players too so people can easily notice if there's something fishy and off on the current game, like choking with the first goal, playing clumsy and etc. Its easy to check their behavior and also its easy to notice if you know a well-known team that they didn't play like they used to. But base on the statistics came from their scores you can makes an assumption or prediction with the score.

You can also find some pattern, but it doesn't mean, it will happen again. Same team, same members - still, you can't guarantee that you will get the same score. There are other underlying factors involved such as strategies, actual physical conditions of the athletes, maybe unknown injuries and the list goes on. Hence, you can never get the same results even if you are considering the same team.

tread93

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on October 14, 2024, 09:17:19 PM

What do you think is harder to predict, randomness or regularity? When I write about randomness, I mean data that statistics take into account, but which cannot always be explained. If you analyze sports matches between two teams and look at the statistics of goals scored in different games, you will find that Team A scores an average of 3 goals per match against Team B. And Team B scores an average of 4 goals per match against Team A. However, it is difficult to rely on average figures. After all, in each specific game, the number of goals scored is more or less random.
One famous mathematician, who wrote a book about football from a mathematical point of view, put it this way:

Quote

Even when goals are scored chaotically, mathematics can find a way to make predictions. But Gascoigne is right. The essence of real events in football is not randomness, but overcoming it. Football is a game about failures and strong-willed victories. When Alex Ferguson resigned in 2013 and David Moyes led Manchester United to their worst season in 20 years, it wasn’t just bad luck. When Germany thrashed Brazil in the World Cup semi-final, scoring five goals in 18 minutes, it wasn’t just luck. Brazil crumbled under pressure, and Germany took advantage. Ferguson’s success, or that of Germany, can’t be understood in terms of randomness: we have to understand its inner workings. The irony is that non-random events are much harder to understand and predict – which is why they are so much more interesting.

So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?

At least with the non-random events there is some sort of a pattern I would suspect so that you can come up with some degree of the likelihood of winning but with random events that can take place there is no way to foresee this so I think its quite interesting that non-random events are much harder to understand and predict I would think that it ought to be the opposite. Maybe one day I will understand them both much better but for now I will continue with my strategy of "winging it" hahahahhh

viljy

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Quote from: fruktik on October 20, 2024, 12:56:06 AM

Quote from: viljy on October 19, 2024, 04:38:24 AM

Betting is much more predictable than casino gambling. It's just that the initial data needs to be taken from "fundamental" reasons (team composition, general training, financing, for example, by an advertiser, sponsor, etc.). But not from the search for patterns in who scored how many goals to whom and other similar things in which there is no pattern. There, if desired, you can find imaginary patterns, but this is a deception.

If I am not mistaken, there is a topic that touches on the issue of randomness and regularity. My opinion is that I consider all events random and the search for regularities is a waste of time and a futile exercise. How can you predict an event in a match? No, it is impossible. If you manage to win something on bets, then it is nothing more than luck and fortune. Personally, this is the only way I see the situation from the outside and I try to stick to this line.

Well, you're already exaggerating the randomness factor too much. There is always a chance, but not so much that in some large sample of matches it does not depend on fundamental factors at all. If that were the case, then it would make no sense for teams, for example, to buy good players. Here is an example from a recent one: Atletico Madrid vs. Leganes. You can't say that the result of the match is an accident. If the role of chance was as great as you claim, then all bookmakers would have gone bankrupt long ago.

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Quote from: Peanutswar on October 20, 2024, 07:53:35 AM

It seems just a random event we know Sportsbet takes a lot of viewers and players too so people can easily notice if there's something fishy and off on the current game, like choking with the first goal, playing clumsy and etc. Its easy to check their behavior and also its easy to notice if you know a well-known team that they didn't play like they used to. But base on the statistics came from their scores you can makes an assumption or prediction with the score.

If it's easy to get such information, THEN it's probably easier for the Cabal behind the sports betting industry to get that information first and change the odds, therefore removing ALL possibilities for plebs like us to have an edge/advantage against them. Compare THAT to trading actual cryptocurrency markets, the plebs probably have more "edge" there, no? Because we can merely buy the best asset, Bitcoin, and HODL without doing anything else and we will STILL outperform most of the active traders. Cool

TheUltraElite

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So anyway, I applied as a merit source :)

Regularity or non-random events are indeed more difficult to predict. No two games are going to be similar and if they are, then it will make it into the news. Such team makes x number of goals in consecutive matches or x number of goals in the quarter finals every season.

Random events are more common but the market for prediction is limited and making the prediction of higher than x number of goals to be scored, is fairly a no brainer to most people, whether that is the correct or wrong outcome is a different question.

Human minds try to find patterns everywhere even when it does not exist. Cool

Peanutswar

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It seems just a random event we know Sportsbet takes a lot of viewers and players too so people can easily notice if there's something fishy and off on the current game, like choking with the first goal, playing clumsy and etc. Its easy to check their behavior and also its easy to notice if you know a well-known team that they didn't play like they used to. But base on the statistics came from their scores you can makes an assumption or prediction with the score.

fruktik

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Quote from: viljy on October 19, 2024, 04:38:24 AM

Betting is much more predictable than casino gambling. It's just that the initial data needs to be taken from "fundamental" reasons (team composition, general training, financing, for example, by an advertiser, sponsor, etc.). But not from the search for patterns in who scored how many goals to whom and other similar things in which there is no pattern. There, if desired, you can find imaginary patterns, but this is a deception.

If I am not mistaken, there is a topic that touches on the issue of randomness and regularity. My opinion is that I consider all events random and the search for regularities is a waste of time and a futile exercise. How can you predict an event in a match? No, it is impossible. If you manage to win something on bets, then it is nothing more than luck and fortune. Personally, this is the only way I see the situation from the outside and I try to stick to this line.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on October 14, 2024, 09:17:19 PM

What do you think is harder to predict, randomness or regularity?

Regularity is easy to be found and analyzed through history data of the player or team you are looking into. Randomness, on the other hand, is unpredictable exactly because its name already says it's random. And if it's random, you can't predict it accurately, because anything can happen. And in sports, regularity isn't static, what means past data isn't guarantee of repetitions in the future. You can discover some patterns, but nothing assures such patterns are going to repeat themselves again any time soon.

Gamblers get surprised when the patterns they have been following just don't happen as expected, but that is the nature of sports betting they should be conscious about before engaging on this activity.

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Quote from: sunsilk on October 17, 2024, 06:09:47 AM

Yes, that's what I've said that you can pull back and take the money with you but with a small deduction. That's better when the randomness has struck you and upon realizing that you're no longer at the upper hand, that's what you have to do.

I think that says it all there. Personally, I learned that way of thinking when I was trading and reading Wyckoff's books. He says very clearly that sometimes you have to cut losses and lengthen profits. I think these teachings also apply to gambling and sports betting. If we don't make the decision to go for the win (even if it's little), it's the best we can do. Those who risk a lot more are in some way throwing their own luck away, but of course they do these things by wanting more. Sometimes greed makes us lose..

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Quote from: fruktik on October 15, 2024, 11:33:14 PM

That's why I consider betting more of a random event than seeing a pattern in all of this.

Betting is much more predictable than casino gambling. It's just that the initial data needs to be taken from "fundamental" reasons (team composition, general training, financing, for example, by an advertiser, sponsor, etc.). But not from the search for patterns in who scored how many goals to whom and other similar things in which there is no pattern. There, if desired, you can find imaginary patterns, but this is a deception.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on October 17, 2024, 08:38:26 PM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 17, 2024, 12:36:54 AM

I believe if "non-random events" are the same/constant, then it's probably better to rely on statistics to make a decision of winning with a higher probability. That quote mentions "to understand its inner workings", which probably describes those "non-random events" that have changed within the teams, the games, or the players?

I assume that the author of the quote I gave meant that randomness becomes a pattern when we begin to understand the internal mechanisms of it. The same applies to statistics, but statistics is only a tool that helps us better understand the internal mechanisms of a pattern. I can illustrate this with the following conditional example. Let's say there is a team A that with a probability of 75% loses all home matches on even dates of odd months in the first ten days of the month. This is clearly a pattern revealed statistically. But we do not understand the reason for this phenomenon. And if we understood, we would most likely be able to improve the statistics of predictions. Let's say we found out that there is a certain event B that often occurs at the specified times and can affect the team's play. And if we carefully analyze these facts, we will find many more interesting things there.

That's what I posted/said. If everything remains constant/the same, then it's probably better to rely on statistical analysis to predict an outcome because of, as you said, the pattern. But the fact/truth is, there are actual events that affect the constantness of the pattern, WHICH, as you also said - "we should analyze these facts" to get a more favorable/higher probability prediction.

I may have been confused in your use of the terminology of regularity and randomness in your OP.

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When it comes to sports betting history repeats itself in some cases, which is why checking statistics and previous matches of both teams is very important although this won't always give you the accurate prediction of the game. Football is all about chances , there's a lot that can happen on the pitch that might be unexpected, even the team that the odds are in favour of might happen to miss some opportunities, as a result of this they might end up losing the game. Soccer is a sport filled with a lot of uncertainties.

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Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on October 16, 2024, 06:49:45 PM

Randomness is hard to predict and in as much as some team are already known for have a best performing players, everything football season is not usually the same for all team. In this season, team A could have victory over team B a couple times, while in the next season, if you judge by the previous seasons, you could just be totally wrong, because the reverse could happen.

Because it won't work in such a complex structure as a whole team, where the result is influenced by many factors, and this must be taken into account for both teams. In addition, no matter how perfect everything looks, something unexpected can happen in any match, like a red card, which is impossible to predict in advance. So we can assume the outcome based on our analysis, but in gambling there will always be a probability that cannot be predicted in any way.

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