What is harder to predict, randomness or regularity? - page 2.

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Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on October 16, 2024, 06:49:45 PM

Randomness is hard to predict and in as much as some team are already known for have a best performing players, everything football season is not usually the same for all team. In this season, team A could have victory over team B a couple times, while in the next season, if you judge by the previous seasons, you could just be totally wrong, because the reverse could happen.

This is absolutely true.
That’s why it’s really difficult to predict games at the beginning of a season or competition because you’re sill unaware of the team’s individual performances in that particular season, it is when the teams have both had recent encounters in that particular competition that you’ll be able to make analysis based on their recent performances.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on October 14, 2024, 09:17:19 PM

Quote

Even when goals are scored chaotically, mathematics can find a way to make predictions. But Gascoigne is right. The essence of real events in football is not randomness, but overcoming it. Football is a game about failures and strong-willed victories. When Alex Ferguson resigned in 2013 and David Moyes led Manchester United to their worst season in 20 years, it wasn’t just bad luck. When Germany thrashed Brazil in the World Cup semi-final, scoring five goals in 18 minutes, it wasn’t just luck. Brazil crumbled under pressure, and Germany took advantage. Ferguson’s success, or that of Germany, can’t be understood in terms of randomness: we have to understand its inner workings. The irony is that non-random events are much harder to understand and predict – which is why they are so much more interesting.

So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?

Most times football outcome is not random but at times it appears as though it is random. Being random is on rare occasion, so it won't be logical to see it as random.. Like with the scenerio of Ferguson era with manU and David Moyes, these were different phases of the club history. Ferguson had an outstanding performance with the club then, so any club that was playing against manU at the time never envisaged beating manU with ease and back to back at random but that was more of manU bizarre experience with Moyes. So also the history of Germany and Brazil then that happened randomly. In essence, the randomness of football is not always predetermined, it just by chance and season. What can contribute to the randomness is lack of preparedness and team spirit. If a team loses concentration at the field of play then they could concede advantage to the opponent.

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I think that finding the result of money line is always the hardest except cases where the odds are low like 1.30 and so on. It is always easier to increase odds to your favor when you go for Asian handicap bets, for example going for an underdog with high odds and to make the odd low by choosing a + 3 odd in Asian handicap meaning the game starts with 3 goals advantage for the underdog and the favorite needs to score 4 goals for you to lose the bet, if they score 3 you get money back. I think this is the best option to make randomness not so random anymore.

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Quote from: seoincorporation on October 14, 2024, 11:40:26 PM

i wouldn't say the sports bets are random, there is luck involved, but each time a player kicks a ball he does it with intention and with a propose, he isn't kicking the ball just to random places. We have as a good example the world cup, i don't think Argentina won on a random way, some players and some teams are better than others, and those are the ones who have a better chance to win.

So, for me the sports aren't random at all. There is skill and intention involved.

Sports, especially football has little or no randomness and very little regularity with respect to team form in it. Because a football team might be doing well across the years defeating another without much issues and all of a sudden, coach is changed, better players bought and they start performing well and outdone their previous oppressors. A tactical example, earlier in the Premier league, A whole Liverpool was defeated in Annfield by Nottingham forest which is viewed as a little team. On the basics of randomness or regularity, it's a walk away for Liverpool, but Nottingham forest were very intentional about that match and defended their only goal till the last minute.

I think it has a lot to do with being intentional and not much with either randomness or regularity.

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Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on October 16, 2024, 06:49:45 PM

Randomness is hard to predict and in as much as some team are already known for have a best performing players, everything football season is not usually the same for all team. In this season, team A could have victory over team B a couple times, while in the next season, if you judge by the previous seasons, you could just be totally wrong, because the reverse could happen.

In my opinion, a random event is not only difficult, but also impossible to predict.

That is why it is called a random event. I will give an example from a textbook on the mathematical theory of probability. There is an ideal metal coin (without any physical defects). When tossing this coin, two outcomes are possible - heads or tails. In this example, the event of heads is a random event. The probability of its occurrence is 50 percent. We cannot predict the occurrence of this event with a probability of more than 50 percent.

Similar random events exist in sports. It makes no sense for a player to try to predict them. It makes much more sense to concentrate on the analysis of non-random events.

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 17, 2024, 12:36:54 AM

I believe if "non-random events" are the same/constant, then it's probably better to rely on statistics to make a decision of winning with a higher probability. That quote mentions "to understand its inner workings", which probably describes those "non-random events" that have changed within the teams, the games, or the players?

I assume that the author of the quote I gave meant that randomness becomes a pattern when we begin to understand the internal mechanisms of it. The same applies to statistics, but statistics is only a tool that helps us better understand the internal mechanisms of a pattern. I can illustrate this with the following conditional example. Let's say there is a team A that with a probability of 75% loses all home matches on even dates of odd months in the first ten days of the month. This is clearly a pattern revealed statistically. But we do not understand the reason for this phenomenon. And if we understood, we would most likely be able to improve the statistics of predictions. Let's say we found out that there is a certain event B that often occurs at the specified times and can affect the team's play. And if we carefully analyze these facts, we will find many more interesting things there.

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Quote from: Dr.Bitcoin_Strange on October 16, 2024, 06:49:45 PM

Randomness is hard to predict and in as much as some team are already known for have a best performing players, everything football season is not usually the same for all team.

Since I am asked, I say it depends on the sports events because some sporting events are random, while some sporting events are regular being that the outcome for some of sporting events could be within a range and not anything specific so that is totally a random something to me. Well if you are giving options for instance in football between two teams to either win lose or draw, the outcome looks more regular to me and I can categorize that as a regular event so I think that regular outcomes are more easily to predict.

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Quote from: SmartGold01 on October 16, 2024, 03:34:34 AM

Quote from: seoincorporation on October 14, 2024, 11:40:26 PM

i wouldn't say the sports bets are random, there is luck involved, but each time a player kicks a ball he does it with intention and with a propose, he isn't kicking the ball just to random places. We have as a good example the world cup, i don't think Argentina won on a random way, some players and some teams are better than others, and those are the ones who have a better chance to win.

So, for me the sports aren't random at all. There is skill and intention involved.

If you say this then we can assumed that the match is a fixed game, because already when a player kicked ball as you said their intention is projected and channeled to specific point but when they ball didn't go that direction which the viewers expected it to go directly then they are assuming it's a mistakes meanwhile it's an intentional acts. This led to a conclusion that most of the matches are directly fixed match, but still there are 50% chances of luck attached to it, and they are also random/nonrandom in it.

You took everything he said out of context. That’s not the meaning of a fixed game. A fixed match is when players or referee has been bribed by interested parties to ensure that the results are in favor of a particular team. Football betting is not random, you get to choose which team you want to bet on/against and you do so with information and data about the players and the teams competing. It’s not random like slot games because you statistics you can analyze before placing your bets.

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Quote from: AmoreJaz on October 16, 2024, 05:22:06 PM

Quote from: sunsilk on October 16, 2024, 05:10:48 PM

Those factors that you have mentioned like having some injuries prior to the game is truly random. Some news are releasing that hours to minutes before the game so, if you've placed a bet days prior to the game and then that happened, it's a random thing to decide on.

Whether you pursue on that bet or not as long as it's not happening yet, you can always pull it back but with a lesser amount but at least you're able to save the money that you have worked on especially if it's the star player that isn't going to play on that match you're looking forward to win some bucks.

Well, it's a literal gamble so if it's on me, it depends on the situation and how urgent that money is but if it's just some spare. Who knows if that money could be more than a double or get a half of it based on the odds.

There are bookies that are allowing the cashout option. That is, if you can still cashout because they have certain period only that you can avail such option. If the game is already very near like few hours or so, they remove this feature. So if you already knew something that there are some changes in the game, better check your bets immediately.

Yes, that's what I've said that you can pull back and take the money with you but with a small deduction. That's better when the randomness has struck you and upon realizing that you're no longer at the upper hand, that's what you have to do.

So, as long as they're allowing you to do so and you're right that there are certain period of times that it's allowed. But then, when the bookies have already closed the calls and you can no longer withdraw the bet, that's for you to take that and see how the randomness in sportsbetting will give you some lessons.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on October 14, 2024, 09:17:19 PM

What do you think is harder to predict, randomness or regularity? When I write about randomness, I mean data that statistics take into account, but which cannot always be explained. If you analyze sports matches between two teams and look at the statistics of goals scored in different games, you will find that Team A scores an average of 3 goals per match against Team B. And Team B scores an average of 4 goals per match against Team A. However, it is difficult to rely on average figures. After all, in each specific game, the number of goals scored is more or less random.
One famous mathematician, who wrote a book about football from a mathematical point of view, put it this way:

Quote

Even when goals are scored chaotically, mathematics can find a way to make predictions. But Gascoigne is right. The essence of real events in football is not randomness, but overcoming it. Football is a game about failures and strong-willed victories. When Alex Ferguson resigned in 2013 and David Moyes led Manchester United to their worst season in 20 years, it wasn’t just bad luck. When Germany thrashed Brazil in the World Cup semi-final, scoring five goals in 18 minutes, it wasn’t just luck. Brazil crumbled under pressure, and Germany took advantage. Ferguson’s success, or that of Germany, can’t be understood in terms of randomness: we have to understand its inner workings. The irony is that non-random events are much harder to understand and predict – which is why they are so much more interesting.

So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?

I believe if "non-random events" are the same/constant, then it's probably better to rely on statistics to make a decision of winning with a higher probability. That quote mentions "to understand its inner workings", which probably describes those "non-random events" that have changed within the teams, the games, or the players?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Statistics are easier to understand because they are based on past data. Non-random events' effects on randomness are probably harder to evaluate.

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Randomness is hard to predict and in as much as some team are already known for have a best performing players, everything football season is not usually the same for all team. In this season, team A could have victory over team B a couple times, while in the next season, if you judge by the previous seasons, you could just be totally wrong, because the reverse could happen.

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Quote from: sunsilk on October 16, 2024, 05:10:48 PM

Those factors that you have mentioned like having some injuries prior to the game is truly random. Some news are releasing that hours to minutes before the game so, if you've placed a bet days prior to the game and then that happened, it's a random thing to decide on.

Whether you pursue on that bet or not as long as it's not happening yet, you can always pull it back but with a lesser amount but at least you're able to save the money that you have worked on especially if it's the star player that isn't going to play on that match you're looking forward to win some bucks.

Well, it's a literal gamble so if it's on me, it depends on the situation and how urgent that money is but if it's just some spare. Who knows if that money could be more than a double or get a half of it based on the odds.

There are bookies that are allowing the cashout option. That is, if you can still cashout because they have certain period only that you can avail such option. If the game is already very near like few hours or so, they remove this feature. So if you already knew something that there are some changes in the game, better check your bets immediately.

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Quote from: seoincorporation on October 14, 2024, 11:40:26 PM

i wouldn't say the sports bets are random, there is luck involved, but each time a player kicks a ball he does it with intention and with a propose, he isn't kicking the ball just to random places. We have as a good example the world cup, i don't think Argentina won on a random way, some players and some teams are better than others, and those are the ones who have a better chance to win.

So, for me the sports aren't random at all. There is skill and intention involved.

Well from my point of view, ill say sport games are random because. Supposing we have a single man game whereas only a two players are allowed to play then the probability of any random thing happening would change to non-random. As long as humans are involved in sport game, it is safe to say that it is random because mistakes could be made, and we are not programmed to make same repetition exactly like the previous game. Hence no sport game is based on non-random results, most especially football. There are several times where we see Southampton who is always favorite to relegate in a season plays with a big team or team within the champions league zone and wins the game. And its possible the big team might have been on a wining strike for a month plus.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on October 14, 2024, 09:17:19 PM

What do you think is harder to predict, randomness or regularity? When I write about randomness, I mean data that statistics take into account, but which cannot always be explained. If you analyze sports matches between two teams and look at the statistics of goals scored in different games, you will find that Team A scores an average of 3 goals per match against Team B. And Team B scores an average of 4 goals per match against Team A. However, it is difficult to rely on average figures. After all, in each specific game, the number of goals scored is more or less random.
One famous mathematician, who wrote a book about football from a mathematical point of view, put it this way:

Quote

Even when goals are scored chaotically, mathematics can find a way to make predictions. But Gascoigne is right. The essence of real events in football is not randomness, but overcoming it. Football is a game about failures and strong-willed victories. When Alex Ferguson resigned in 2013 and David Moyes led Manchester United to their worst season in 20 years, it wasn’t just bad luck. When Germany thrashed Brazil in the World Cup semi-final, scoring five goals in 18 minutes, it wasn’t just luck. Brazil crumbled under pressure, and Germany took advantage. Ferguson’s success, or that of Germany, can’t be understood in terms of randomness: we have to understand its inner workings. The irony is that non-random events are much harder to understand and predict – which is why they are so much more interesting.

So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?

The quote you post seem to be talking about black swans, events that come out of nowhere and that can have a terrible effect, so for example we know that roughly every decade the world economy suffers a major crisis, but what we do not know is how that crisis will come to be, and the most recent crisis was caused by the pandemic, something that no one saw coming, so I get what he is talking about since those kind of events are impossible predict or even to prepare for.

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Quote from: Mahanton on October 16, 2024, 04:02:27 PM

Quote from: sunsilk on October 16, 2024, 03:50:40 PM

~snip~

Those factors that you have mentioned like having some injuries prior to the game is truly random. Some news are releasing that hours to minutes before the game so, if you've placed a bet days prior to the game and then that happened, it's a random thing to decide on.

Whether you pursue on that bet or not as long as it's not happening yet, you can always pull it back but with a lesser amount but at least you're able to save the money that you have worked on especially if it's the star player that isn't going to play on that match you're looking forward to win some bucks.

Well, it's a literal gamble so if it's on me, it depends on the situation and how urgent that money is but if it's just some spare. Who knows if that money could be more than a double or get a half of it based on the odds.

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Quote from: Julien_Olynpic on October 14, 2024, 09:17:19 PM

So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?

Firstly I don't see sports as a random event because they are literally planned but what could be referred to as random if we should make considerations would be the activities or the sub events that take place in a sports event.

An example would be with the goals scored in the football game, the number of free kicks, throw in and even goal kicks, ofcourse corner kicks aren't left out but as it has to do with the even of football it self, it's not random because they plan and get it fixed so it's easier to predict a sport happening at a particular time due to the recurrent reoccurrence over a period of time but the randomness in the game that will produce results is actually not an easy thing to predict.

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Quote from: aoluain on October 16, 2024, 07:20:42 AM

Quote from: blockman on October 15, 2024, 10:12:49 AM

Both are hard but then if it's about being harder then randomness is obviously the harder thing to predict. While with regularity, you have the pattern and study to make to see how the regularities are being done. While the randomness of a game or a player based on the situation that they're facing during the live game, that's something that you'll never expect to happen and see for which twists are becoming common. You'd see that most games are spontaneous and they are harder to predict.

I was struggling with the OP's question and this makes sense to me at least.
Its harder to predict randomness purely because of the nature of it, its random,
anything can happen.

Could we argue that betting against the favourite is betting on a random event
occuring we us winning our bet? while betting with the favourite is predicting
regilarity?

I agree, betting against the favorite is something out of luck and those that bet on it are the ones that likes to gamble and sure like there's a magic that came inside their minds that "what if become lucky and wins the game?". For that reason, a random bet with that doesn't happen at most times but it is not impossible to happen.

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Quote from: sunsilk on October 16, 2024, 03:50:40 PM

Quote from: cabron on October 16, 2024, 10:54:52 AM

When all of a sudden a team wins despite how well organized the other team is, then I think there is luck in it.
Gascoigne could be right but you always have to look at who is telling the story. Grin

David Moyes and Ferguson will always tell the story like they are the hero of the story which they meant to make themselves player of the game and the win is not just random.

The favorite team always has the odds of winning. By luck the other team wins, then something must have happened in the middle of the game.

That's what we call twists in these games.

Those all of a sudden move that has happened that turned the favor of other team/player into their good fate to win the game is that.

I agree that there's also luck involved in these games and that's why sometimes those odds that have favored the favorite team had turned the other side and made them lose the game.

And to the gambler's side, there's also luck in there and the randomness of that game is hard to predict with analysis because of that twist.

Luck would really be always the main determining factor on which even a slightest change of it will really be changing up the whole game completely on which it could neither be that go against or will really be that in line
on what you had predicted. This is why its called betting or gambling in the first place just because there's no way that you could really be able to completely know on what would really be the result of a particular game.

This is why we do have that upset and to those unfortunate conditions like having some possible injuries on which it might lead into that non playing of the ace player or whatever possible happens on a certain game
on which there's no assurance that you could be able to win up on a certain bet just because you do have those kind of high hopes and expectations just because you do able to make or apply the best analysis that you could possibly have. Harder to predict? Doesnt matter on which one you are really that getting involved into but still everything cant be able to determine.

So it would really be that up to you on which you would really be wanting to continue or would really be that completely stopped because you cant really be able to bare it up?

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IMO you should never rely on these statistics, like the average number of goals in a match by certain team. This doesn't say anything about the coming match and will only confuse you.

Maybe if that's your goal to bet over or under x number of goals and you only bet on that in every match, maybe that could help you decide how to bet, but for most people it's going to be useless. I prefer to bet on scores than on over/under bets especially since they pay much worse. If you try to bet on scores by using the average goal statistic you're not going to do very well.

To answer your question, scores are regular only to some extent. For instance MMA fighters are undefeated until they are defeated. The fact that someone has a score of 5-0 doesn't mean they will have 6-0. It's only something you have to factor in your prediction, but all the others will do that too and your prize will get smaller.

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Quote from: cabron on October 16, 2024, 10:54:52 AM

When all of a sudden a team wins despite how well organized the other team is, then I think there is luck in it.
Gascoigne could be right but you always have to look at who is telling the story. Grin

David Moyes and Ferguson will always tell the story like they are the hero of the story which they meant to make themselves player of the game and the win is not just random.

The favorite team always has the odds of winning. By luck the other team wins, then something must have happened in the middle of the game.

That's what we call twists in these games.

Those all of a sudden move that has happened that turned the favor of other team/player into their good fate to win the game is that.

I agree that there's also luck involved in these games and that's why sometimes those odds that have favored the favorite team had turned the other side and made them lose the game.

And to the gambler's side, there's also luck in there and the randomness of that game is hard to predict with analysis because of that twist.

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