There is a flaw in this reasoning from the beginning. It is impossible to calculate average values based on such small samples. It is for this reason that they are not even a pattern. Therefore, the average values do not make predictions any easier. To find a pattern, you need a sample of at least hundreds of games, and, moreover, unchanged teams. This is impossible in reality.
Well, that's what I'm talking about. You can't predict events with constantly changing data. It really doesn't seem like a possible process. That's why I consider betting more of a random event than seeing a pattern in all of this. It's not a case where you can apply some kind of repeating moments. Does anyone want to see something different in this? Please. No one has the right to judge a person for his particular choice, if it does not harm others. 
Topic: What is harder to predict, randomness or regularity? - page 4. (Read 912 times)
What do you think is harder to predict, randomness or regularity? When I write about randomness, I mean data that statistics take into account, but which cannot always be explained. If you analyze sports matches between two teams and look at the statistics of goals scored in different games, you will find that Team A scores an average of 3 goals per match against Team B. And Team B scores an average of 4 goals per match against Team A. However, it is difficult to rely on average figures. After all, in each specific game, the number of goals scored is more or less random.
One famous mathematician, who wrote a book about football from a mathematical point of view, put it this way:
So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?
One famous mathematician, who wrote a book about football from a mathematical point of view, put it this way:
Quote
Even when goals are scored chaotically, mathematics can find a way to make predictions. But Gascoigne is right. The essence of real events in football is not randomness, but overcoming it. Football is a game about failures and strong-willed victories. When Alex Ferguson resigned in 2013 and David Moyes led Manchester United to their worst season in 20 years, it wasn’t just bad luck. When Germany thrashed Brazil in the World Cup semi-final, scoring five goals in 18 minutes, it wasn’t just luck. Brazil crumbled under pressure, and Germany took advantage. Ferguson’s success, or that of Germany, can’t be understood in terms of randomness: we have to understand its inner workings. The irony is that non-random events are much harder to understand and predict – which is why they are so much more interesting.
So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?
You can apply mathematics to a set of data. Which means if you want to use past events to your advantage and therefore bet on more than 6 goals because they finish games 4-3 on average, then this means that over time your bets maybe more likely to win when you go with more than 6 goals than when you go with less than 6 goals. But the problem is that the average you have calculated is what you call it: an average. You have calculated it based on plenty of games played between the two teams. Accordingly you have to bet on a large number of games between those teams. Otherwise mathematics don't apply. You can't reach a statistically significant predictor based on an insufficient set of data points.
It is still smarter to go with more than six goals if you intend to play only once. But if you really want to exploit what the data tells you, then you would have to place the bets on my games to come between those two teams. Again, the odds would still be in your favor in a one time event, but standard deviation hits harder.
I love how abstract discussions are brought forth from mundane things like football performances.
Ironic as it may seem, based on what the mathematician wrote, on the contrary, I think random events remain harder to predict than non-random events. Non-random events are there. It's a given. It's available. It's just that it takes a lot more and deeper analysis, study, evaluation, pondering, and so on to understand it all. But the answer is just there waiting for anybody who successfully solves the puzzle.
Whereas, random events don't have explanations and formulae. Otherwise, they aren't random. The most that you can do with them is guess and be lucky that you're right. Random events don't have eureka moments.
Ironic as it may seem, based on what the mathematician wrote, on the contrary, I think random events remain harder to predict than non-random events. Non-random events are there. It's a given. It's available. It's just that it takes a lot more and deeper analysis, study, evaluation, pondering, and so on to understand it all. But the answer is just there waiting for anybody who successfully solves the puzzle.
Whereas, random events don't have explanations and formulae. Otherwise, they aren't random. The most that you can do with them is guess and be lucky that you're right. Random events don't have eureka moments.
So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?
So when I lost bet Indonesia team last night, I assume that sport betting is random events. As I know Indonesia quality team is better than China, Indonesia can draw away when meet saudi and Australia, while china lost at their home when meet that team. In math, Indonesia should have won easily, because saudi was defeat them on 1-2 on their home. But, again, this is random, our calculate isn't always expected as we hope. 
So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?
Just for clarity, could you give us an example of random and non-random events? I’m not really into football, so I’m not sure if what I’m thinking matches what you mean. I’m just trying to get this straight from you, since you’re the OP, to help everyone contribute more effectively to the discussion–because I have a feeling this is going to be a long thread!
This is why there are so many people who love sports like football. It's unpredictable!
I think regularity is much harder to predict just like what was said in your quote. In regularity, we are expecting something to be reached and most of the time it won't happen while the randomness is what makes us win. Different teams, different opponents, different days, different environments, everything could impact the game and we cannot know everything about that. Even the flight, weather, and trips of the players can affect their day and it might also cost them their game which also means that the regular thing that they do can always change.
It's not football but I do remember the Detroit Pistons (NBA) before they won the championship in 2004, in most of their game if the opponent would not score over 100 points then they win. It's like an automatic thing but still, the total score is not easy to predict because Detroit could go crazy and score high so "total under" bets could also lose.
I think regularity is much harder to predict just like what was said in your quote. In regularity, we are expecting something to be reached and most of the time it won't happen while the randomness is what makes us win. Different teams, different opponents, different days, different environments, everything could impact the game and we cannot know everything about that. Even the flight, weather, and trips of the players can affect their day and it might also cost them their game which also means that the regular thing that they do can always change.
It's not football but I do remember the Detroit Pistons (NBA) before they won the championship in 2004, in most of their game if the opponent would not score over 100 points then they win. It's like an automatic thing but still, the total score is not easy to predict because Detroit could go crazy and score high so "total under" bets could also lose.
In a match with random results or not this still has a role in it.
Let's say you bet on the favorite team and the opponent is a weak team, maybe here it is said that random is impossible because of the regularity where the favorite team will win, but sometimes the results are random as examples of several other matches.
But in betting, it will definitely involve luck and it cannot be entirely skill... In sports it does rely on skill including the game but the results will not be like that... Sometimes randomness plays a role in the results.
Let's say you bet on the favorite team and the opponent is a weak team, maybe here it is said that random is impossible because of the regularity where the favorite team will win, but sometimes the results are random as examples of several other matches.
But in betting, it will definitely involve luck and it cannot be entirely skill... In sports it does rely on skill including the game but the results will not be like that... Sometimes randomness plays a role in the results.
So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?
If a match is not fixed and not scripted, that means it is a random event. Sports are not fixed or scripted which means it is not a non-random event but a random even. There is nothing harder to understand about sport but predicting what would be the outcomes at times may not be accurate. That is why there are sport betting that offer such service to make money.So one need to get highly lucky to be able to speculate and predict rightly in most cases, because most often than none, one need to rely on luck to be able to win in sport bets.
Both are hard but then if it's about being harder then randomness is obviously the harder thing to predict. While with regularity, you have the pattern and study to make to see how the regularities are being done. While the randomness of a game or a player based on the situation that they're facing during the live game, that's something that you'll never expect to happen and see for which twists are becoming common. You'd see that most games are spontaneous and they are harder to predict.
So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?
Randomness is harder to predict and bet on, and going further, we should know that there are different kinds of randomness; there are the regularly random and the irregularly random events. Regularly random events are events that are random but happen in a regular pattern that is predictable, while irregularly random events are random events that happen in a pattern that is unpredictable. Sports, IMO, can be categorized as a regularly random event because, although it is a sport that happens in a regular pattern, the outcome when it comes to betting on it is always random.
So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?
The outcome of football games can be determined by both random and non-random events. It is easier to understand non-random events because you can easily locate statistics about any club on the internet. With this information, one can easily place a bet. It is on record that Arsenal have defeated Manchester City more than any club in the EPL. So I can confidently place a bet that the Gunners will win the Cityzen regardless of the squad they possess. Random events simply depend on luck and you don't need to do anything about it. I don't understand why Argentina lost to Saudi Arabia and still won the World Cup. I can't figure out why Cameroon also beat Brazil in the same competition.
So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?
all depends on the prediction and pattern of the game in my opinion if in football, if the match is carried out fairly then the results will be seen as random events, because the players really play to find real victory, but we cannot determine whether the football match is random or non-random for football it is difficult to predict, unlike the dice game which is clearly random
i wouldn't say the sports bets are random, there is luck involved, but each time a player kicks a ball he does it with intention and with a propose, he isn't kicking the ball just to random places. We have as a good example the world cup, i don't think Argentina won on a random way, some players and some teams are better than others, and those are the ones who have a better chance to win.
So, for me the sports aren't random at all. There is skill and intention involved.
So, for me the sports aren't random at all. There is skill and intention involved.
sorry, but in reality football is often used as gambling and sometimes everything is arranged, we are sure that this club will win but there are gaps in the match being arranged by the referee, it is very clear who wants to win, and usually the organizers have arranged everything and it is borne by the referee,
There is a flaw in this reasoning from the beginning. It is impossible to calculate average values based on such small samples. It is for this reason that they are not even a pattern. Therefore, the average values do not make predictions any easier. To find a pattern, you need a sample of at least hundreds of games, and, moreover, unchanged teams. This is impossible in reality.
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Pretty sure the quote already said it, mathematics can calculate averages and whatnot but there's probably an infinite number of events that can affect the result, not just luck. It being random or not really depends on whether or not you know about it really imo. Like, it can't exactly be random if Team A is performing poorly if you know that their star player had an accident. It just purely depends on what YOU know. Ofc, there's some that can easily be known, some that can't, and I'd say it's pretty obvious to take action when you know something happened, compared to when you don't know. Just from my sample, pretty sure someone who knows would be able to easily identify that Team B suddenly has higher chances because of Team A's star player being absent.
i wouldn't say the sports bets are random, there is luck involved, but each time a player kicks a ball he does it with intention and with a propose, he isn't kicking the ball just to random places. We have as a good example the world cup, i don't think Argentina won on a random way, some players and some teams are better than others, and those are the ones who have a better chance to win.
So, for me the sports aren't random at all. There is skill and intention involved.
Random wouldn't define any sports but rather uncertain or indefinite as each player's gameplay would matter in any sports as their skills and practice will be taken into account to the outcome of the match but it wouldn't provide the exact result they wanted. One team maybe stronger or better than their opposing team but the outcome may still not go into their favor as there are multiple factors that may affect a match. So, for me the sports aren't random at all. There is skill and intention involved.
So yeah, any sports including football isn't a random outcome but rather an uncertain and indefinite game.
You shouldn't bet just based on average goal per match in one season or all season because it's not accurate.
Coach, players, home/away, and the opponents are really important, you should calculate the average goal per match using these criteria. Let's say you want to bet a match where it will held in away and face strong opponents. If both of the coach and the players are same, you should check the match that also played in away and face strong opponents.
Random event is harder to predict, do you bet on Europa League or Europa Conference League? try to bet there if you think random event is easier.
Coach, players, home/away, and the opponents are really important, you should calculate the average goal per match using these criteria. Let's say you want to bet a match where it will held in away and face strong opponents. If both of the coach and the players are same, you should check the match that also played in away and face strong opponents.
Random event is harder to predict, do you bet on Europa League or Europa Conference League? try to bet there if you think random event is easier.
Players often do not try to separate randomness or regularity of events in a match, but analyze it as statistical indicators. For example, one team scored 25 goals in 10 rounds, another team (their opponent in the upcoming match) missed 21 goals in 10 rounds.
Based on these indicators, we can conclude that the first team has a good attack, and the second has a bad defense, the first score an average of 2 goals per match, and the second miss the same amount, but these indicators are average, it is clear that in one match they can score 3 goals and in another only 1, but this is just one of the indicators that can help us decide on a future bet and helps determine what to bet on.
Based on these indicators, we can conclude that the first team has a good attack, and the second has a bad defense, the first score an average of 2 goals per match, and the second miss the same amount, but these indicators are average, it is clear that in one match they can score 3 goals and in another only 1, but this is just one of the indicators that can help us decide on a future bet and helps determine what to bet on.
So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?
I would still classify it as a random event rather than a pattern. And why? Tell me, colleagues, who among you can predict at what moment a specific player will twist his ankle, i.e. get a serious injury, and so on. I don't think any of us can do it. A banal coincidence and nothing more. Yes, one in a billion people will be able to guess by chance, but this also cannot be classed as a pattern. I think that this person will never be able to do it again. 
i wouldn't say the sports bets are random, there is luck involved, but each time a player kicks a ball he does it with intention and with a propose, he isn't kicking the ball just to random places. We have as a good example the world cup, i don't think Argentina won on a random way, some players and some teams are better than others, and those are the ones who have a better chance to win.
So, for me the sports aren't random at all. There is skill and intention involved.
So, for me the sports aren't random at all. There is skill and intention involved.
Exactly!
I think people may have misunderstood what "random" really means. In gambling, random means the absence of intentions or specific target or goal to achieve just like the slot games, wherein the only thing to achieve is to win no matter how and no matter how much, with no skills, analysis, and any kind of mental and physical matter that would influence the result.
When we analyse a match in sports, we don't only rely on statistics and averages of the teams and their individual players, but we also consider a lot of different things like injuries, player emotions, news around the league (drama), rotations, player/coach/staff relations, and a lot of different things that makes as think analysing who's gonna win or lose in match is random, but it's actually not.
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