Topic: What is harder to predict, randomness or regularity? - page 5. (Read 912 times)

Generally sport betting indeed is not random because to gets good results from this game people cannot rely on their luck to win the bets because analysis is required but sometimes there was some of random events happened especially in soccer matches and this event is unpredictable and usually most people didn't expect random results happened on the particular matches which makes most people lost their bets from these events so that's why in my opinion random events is hard to predicted compared to regular events and for an example for random event is i think in World Cup 2022 nobody will expect Argentina lost from Saudi Arabia on group phase and other example is i think Manchester United fans never thought their team will be humiliate by Liverpool with final scores 7-1 last year

Perhaps it is more likely that there is a luck factor that cannot be predicted, even weak teams or those that often lose against team B but can win when they are lucky, luck could be because the opponent's mainstay player is not fit or other factors that are indeed unexpected.
Not only in football but also in other sports, for example where player A often loses when facing player B and player B often loses against player C, regularly when C faces A, C should win but what often happens is the opposite because there are random or invisible factors that are difficult to predict.

With sports, luck is involved.

You can't tell if a team is ready for whats coming, either one has an headache or just weak for the day you can't tell, and they won't talk because of the spotlight, they want to be out there so they will manage.

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It would have been a different thing if you are to play the game all by yourself, you can figure out why you lose, you will instantly accept that it is your fault for being weak, mind you, these players tried their best, but the audience won't see it this way, putting blames on the team, goalkeeper or even the coach.

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Everything in the world is hard to predict, even if you are in control yourself you won't know if you will win or lose, until its over.

Just for clarity, could you give us an example of random and non-random events? I’m not really into football, so I’m not sure if what I’m thinking matches what you mean. I’m just trying to get this straight from you, since you’re the OP, to help everyone contribute more effectively to the discussion–because I have a feeling this is going to be a long thread!

The reason why it's very tough to predict correct score is basically because the past scores doesn't always reflect with the current game and in some way, you still have to find a way of predicting the outcome of whatever game you've chosen to be independent of the last head to head encounter. For sports betting, most times it's not all about randomelnes or regularity. It's about the team that's in Thier best of form and that have better results when you look at thier recent games. I would always choose a team based on the quality in the current lineup I'm projecting they will bring out in the match in comparison to the quality in the lineup they're going against. Other factors like the formation to be used and who is playing home or away can also come into consideration in the long run but you can't be all too perfect with your prediction so you just have do the little analysis you can do and let the result fall into place.

For a team or an opponent to win in a game takes skills, practice and the intention to be accurate and win, so I'l agree that getting results is not random. Mathematical calculations is involved in sports, a coach, the team and the individual players needs to calculate the chances of their team scoring, trying to figure out where their opponent are vulnerable then capitalize on it to win. A better team has more chances to win in a game because they're better prepared so it's precision rather than random circumstances that gives wins. But the luck factor can change everything, a single mistake or gap in communication can affect the team's preparation.

I find that regularity or non-random events are much harder to predict. While randomness has its own complexity, it's often accounted for through probabilities and averages, as in your sports example with goals. But non-random patterns? Those require deeper insight, going beyond mere numbers. It’s about understanding human psychology, team dynamics, strategy, and even intangibles like momentum or pressure. As the quote mentions, it’s not just luck when teams like Germany capitalize on Brazil’s collapse, or when a coach’s strategy brings out the best in their team consistently.

This is true and I will agree. The correct answer to Julien_Olynpic question is that sport events are not random at all. If talking about randomness, it is better to talk about casino games. But which is even difficult than being random because there is house edge also which will favour the casino.

In my opinion, random events are much more difficult because even though we have any greatness in analyzing and predicting, we will always experience unexpected things where all of these analyses and predictions end in failure that never match.
Sports always show different results because the quality of the game and performance of each team cannot really be maintained in the long term and the quality of the players will also experience decline and improvement depending on the condition of the players themselves.
Football betting will not always be easy to predict even though all the statistics that exist can sometimes show good results to bet on, it just that in football there are some things that can be considered mysteries that make it difficult for everyone to bet well and win.
For example, one of the best team plays very impressively in competition A but they perform poorly for competition B, this is real thing that always makes one of the randomness and regularity as subject that cannot be used for certain in predicting match results.

That's really interesting. That lies in the mass misunderstanding of what randomness in sport really is, up on the surface, random situations like a lucky goal or an injury. They are hard to predict because they distort the expected flow, but the more you dig in, The more consistent the model, the more appealing it will be; for example, a team's performance in pressure or the mental toughness of a player.

In sports, though, statistics give us averages. But psychology is often not taken into account. The 'human element' which plays a huge role in random events is found to be non-random. Won the famous Brazil-Germany World Cup championship. It was not just an accidental failure in Brazil's defense. Psychological attacks occur under intense pressure. And Germany was weak enough to have the advantage at that time. That is what makes non-random events difficult to predict. This involves many factors, such as team chemistry, mental health, and decision-making under pressure. which is difficult to quantify

To me, this makes the sports really interesting and unpredictable. However much it is random, how to do it, how to get it without blindly. Even best predictions are undermined by unexpected recovery periods or failures, so while randomization can be difficult, But problem of nonrandom understanding often seems very general.


I totally agree with you sports betting isn't a matter of chance! The way players play, and the way we bet surely involves skill, strategy and intent. Take in the case of analysis for a team or an individual player. Past performance statistic and current form. All of these are clues to possible outcomes. Players and teams don't depend solely on luck. Preparation, strategy, execution are all important.

However, I would argue that even play cannot be considered a random activity. Yet, unpredictability plays a role that we cannot neglect. Sometimes, even the greatest teams, or for that matter, even players face surprises sometimes-vague injuries, adverse weather conditions, or unexpected changes. Some of the predictions may go wrong, such as Argentina's victory for World Cup, for instance. Yes, they are one of the strongest teams. But luck and the unexpected can always change everything in one flicker of an instant. For after all, I believe sports betting is really about finding balance with knowledge and understanding that things are just not in our hands. The combination of skill, preparation, and a little bit of luck that is what makes this so exciting.

Of course, randomness is the one harder to predict. Regularity has more stability and we can follow patterns easier compared to randomness where you are like shooting blindly into the sky hoping it lands somewhere where you want it. Each match is different and there are factors that can affect what we perceive is the expected results of the match. Basically with randomness, you get it right 1 out of 10 but with regularity you get it wrong 1 out of 10. Regularity, despite irregularities here and there from time to time, will still be easier to predict because it has more explainable pattern behaviors. If a team performs well on an average, it is easier to predict that they will continue to do so in the next few matches as well.

i wouldn't say the sports bets are random, there is luck involved, but each time a player kicks a ball he does it with intention and with a propose, he isn't kicking the ball just to random places. We have as a good example the world cup, i don't think Argentina won on a random way, some players and some teams are better than others, and those are the ones who have a better chance to win.

So, for me the sports aren't random at all. There is skill and intention involved.

If a match is not fixed and not scripted, that means it is a random event. Sports are not fixed or scripted which means it is not a non-random event but a random even.  There is nothing harder to understand about sport but predicting what would be the outcomes at times  may not be accurate. That is why there are sport betting that offer such service to make money.

What do you think is harder to predict, randomness or regularity? When I write about randomness, I mean data that statistics take into account, but which cannot always be explained. If you analyze sports matches between two teams and look at the statistics of goals scored in different games, you will find that Team A scores an average of 3 goals per match against Team B. And Team B scores an average of 4 goals per match against Team A. However, it is difficult to rely on average figures. After all, in each specific game, the number of goals scored is more or less random.
One famous mathematician, who wrote a book about football from a mathematical point of view, put it this way:


So what is harder to understand about sports in general, and football in particular – random events or non-random events?